Trait‐based prediction of extinction risk of small‐bodied freshwater fishes

Small body size is generally correlated with r‐selected life‐history traits, including early maturation, short‐generation times, and rapid growth rates, that result in high population turnover and a reduced risk of extinction. Unlike other classes of vertebrates, however, small freshwater fishes appear to have an equal or greater risk of extinction than large fishes. We explored whether particular traits explain the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List conservation status of small‐bodied freshwater fishes from 4 temperate river basins: Murray‐Darling, Australia; Danube, Europe; Mississippi‐Missouri, North America; and the Rio Grande, North America. Twenty‐three ecological and life‐history traits were collated for all 171 freshwater fishes of ≤120 mm total length. We used generalized linear mixed‐effects models to assess which combination of the 23 traits best explained whether a species was threatened or not threatened. We used the best models to predict the probability of 29 unclassified species being listed as threatened. With and without controlling for phylogeny at the family level, small body size—among small‐bodied species—was the most influential trait correlated with threatened species listings. The k‐folds cross‐validation demonstrated that body size and a random effect structure that included family predicted the threat status with an accuracy of 78% (SE 0.5). We identified 10 species likely to be threatened that are not listed as such on the IUCN Red List. Small body size is not a trait that provides universal resistance to extinction, particularly for vertebrates inhabiting environments affected by extreme habitat loss and fragmentation. We hypothesize that this is because small‐bodied species have smaller home ranges, lower dispersal capabilities, and heightened ecological specialization relative to larger vertebrates. Trait data and further model development are needed to predict the IUCN conservation status of the over 11,000 unclassified freshwater fishes, especially those under threat from proposed dam construction in the world's most biodiverse river basins.     

Level of environmental threat posed by horticultural trade in Cactaceae

Ornamental horticulture has been identified as an important threat to plant biodiversity and is a major pathway for plant invasions worldwide. In this context, the family Cactaceae is particularly challenging because it is considered the fifth most threatened large taxonomic group in the world; several species are among the most widespread and damaging invasive species; and Cactaceae is one of the most popular horticultural plant groups. Based on the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Flora and Fauna and the 11 largest online auction sites selling cacti, we documented the international cactus trade. To provide an in‐depth look at the dynamics of the industry, we surveyed the businesses involved in the cactus trade in South Africa (a hotspot of cactus trade and invasions). We purchased seeds of every available species and used DNA barcoding to identify species to the genus level. Although <20% of this trade involved threatened species and <3% involved known invasive species, many species were identified by a common name. However, only 0.02% of the globally traded cacti were collected from wild populations. Despite a large commercial network, all South African imports (of which 15% and 1.5% were of species listed as threatened and invasive, respectively) came from the same source. With DNA barcoding, we identified 24% of the species to genus level. Based on our results, we believe that if trade restrictions are placed on the small proportion of cacti that are invasive and there is no major increase in harvesting of native populations, then the commercial trade in cactus poses a negligible environmental threat. However, there are currently no effective methods for easily identifying which cacti are traded, and both the illicit harvesting of cacti from the wild and the informal trade in invasive taxa pose on‐going conservation challenges.     

Testing the feasibility of a hypothetical whaling‐conservation permit market in Norway

A cap‐and‐trade system for managing whale harvests represents a potentially useful approach to resolve the current gridlock in international whale management. The establishment of whale permit markets, open to both whalers and conservationists, could reveal the strength of conservation demand, about which little is known. This lack of knowledge makes it difficult to predict the outcome of a hypothetical whale permit market. We developed a bioeconomic model to evaluate the influence of economic uncertainty about demand for whale conservation or harvest. We used simulations over a wide range of parameterizations of whaling and conservation demands to examine the potential ecological consequences of the establishment of a whale permit market in Norwegian waters under bounded (but substantial) economic uncertainty. Uncertainty variables were slope of whaling and conservation demand, participation level of conservationists and their willingness to pay for whale conservation, and functional forms of demand, including linear, quadratic, and log‐linear forms. A whale‐conservation market had the potential to yield a wide range of conservation and harvest outcomes, the most likely outcomes were those in which conservationists bought all whale permits.     

Threats to intact tropical peatlands and opportunities for their conservation

Large, intact areas of tropical peatland are highly threatened at a global scale by the expansion of commercial agriculture and other forms of economic development. Conserving peatlands on a landscape scale, with their hydrology intact, is of international conservation importance to preserve their distinctive biodiversity and ecosystem services and maintain their resilience to future environmental change. We explored threats to and opportunities for conserving remaining intact tropical peatlands; thus, we excluded peatlands of Indonesia and Malaysia, where extensive deforestation, drainage, and conversion to plantations means conservation in this region can protect only small fragments of the original ecosystem. We focused on a case study, the Pastaza‐Marañón Foreland Basin (PMFB) in Peru, which is among the largest known intact tropical peatland landscapes in the world and is representative of peatland vulnerability. Maintenance of the hydrological conditions critical for carbon storage and ecosystem function of peatlands is, in the PMFB, primarily threatened by expansion of commercial agriculture linked to new transport infrastructure that is facilitating access to remote areas. There remain opportunities in the PMFB and elsewhere to develop alternative, more sustainable land‐use practices. Although some of the peatlands in the PMFB fall within existing legally protected areas, this protection does not include the most carbon‐dense (domed pole forest) areas. New carbon‐based conservation instruments (e.g., REDD+, Green Climate Fund), developing markets for sustainable peatland products, transferring land title to local communities, and expanding protected areas offer pathways to increased protection for intact tropical peatlands in Amazonia and elsewhere, such as those in New Guinea and Central Africa which remain, for the moment, broadly beyond the frontier of commercial development.     

Using a Bayesian network to clarify areas requiring research in a host–pathogen system

Bayesian network analyses can be used to interactively change the strength of effect of variables in a model to explore complex relationships in new ways. In doing so, they allow one to identify influential nodes that are not well studied empirically so that future research can be prioritized. We identified relationships in host and pathogen biology to examine disease‐driven declines of amphibians associated with amphibian chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis). We constructed a Bayesian network consisting of behavioral, genetic, physiological, and environmental variables that influence disease and used them to predict host population trends. We varied the impacts of specific variables in the model to reveal factors with the most influence on host population trend. The behavior of the nodes (the way in which the variables probabilistically responded to changes in states of the parents, which are the nodes or variables that directly influenced them in the graphical model) was consistent with published results. The frog population had a 49% probability of decline when all states were set at their original values, and this probability increased when body temperatures were cold, the immune system was not suppressing infection, and the ambient environment was conducive to growth of B. dendrobatidis. These findings suggest the construction of our model reflected the complex relationships characteristic of host–pathogen interactions. Changes to climatic variables alone did not strongly influence the probability of population decline, which suggests that climate interacts with other factors such as the capacity of the frog immune system to suppress disease. Changes to the adaptive immune system and disease reservoirs had a large effect on the population trend, but there was little empirical information available for model construction. Our model inputs can be used as a base to examine other systems, and our results show that such analyses are useful tools for reviewing existing literature, identifying links poorly supported by evidence, and understanding complexities in emerging infectious‐disease systems.     

Physicochemical fingerprinting of thermal waters of Beira Interior region of Portugal

Mineral natural waters and spas have been used for therapeutic purposes for centuries, with Portugal being a very rich country in thermal waters and spas that are mainly distributed by northern and central regions where Beira Interior region is located. The use of thermal waters for therapeutic purposes has always been aroused a continuous interest, being dependent on physicochemical fingerprinting of this type of waters the indication for a treatment in a specific pathological condition. In the present work, besides a literature review about the physicochemical composition of the thermal waters of the Beira Interior region and its therapeutic indications, it was carried out an exhaustive multivariate analysis—principal component analysis and cluster analysis—to assess the correlation between different physicochemical parameters and the therapeutic indications claims described for these spas and thermal waters. These statistical methods used for data analysis enables classification of thermal waters compositions into different groups, regarding to the different variable selected, making possible an interpretation of variables affecting water compositions. Actually, Monfortinho and Longroiva are clearly quite different of the others, and Cró and Fonte Santa de Almeida appear together in all analysis, suggesting a strong resemblance between these waters. Thereafter, the results obtained allow us to demonstrate the role of major components of the studied thermal waters on a particular therapeutic purpose/indication and hence based on compositional and physicochemical properties partially explain their therapeutic qualities and beneficial effects on human health. This classification agreed with the results obtained for the therapeutic indications approved by the Portuguese National Health Authority and proved to be a valuable tool for the regional typology of mineral medicinal waters, constituting an important guide of the therapeutic armamentarium for well and specific-oriented pathological disturbs.     

Health risk assessment of potentially harmful elements and dietary minerals from vegetables irrigated with untreated wastewater,Pakistan

In the developing world, vegetables are commonly grown in suburban areas irrigated with untreated wastewater containing potentially harmful elements (PHEs). In Pakistan, there is no published work on the bioaccessibility aspect of PHEs and dietary minerals (DMs) in sewage-irrigated soil or the vegetables grown on such soils in Pakistan. Several industrial districts of Pakistan were selected for assessment of the risk associated with the ingestion of vegetables grown over sewage-irrigated soils. Both the total and bioaccessible fraction of PHEs (Cd, Co, Cr, Ni, and Pb) and DMs (Fe, Cu, Mn, Zn, Ca, Mg, and I) in soils and vegetable samples were measured. The concentrations of these PHEs and DMs in sewage-irrigated and control soils were below published upper threshold limits. However, compared to control soils, sewage irrigation over the years decreased soil pH (7.7 vs 8.1) and enhanced dissolved organic carbon (1.8 vs 0.8 %), which could enhance the phyto-availability of PHEs and DMs to crops. Of the PHEs and DMs, the highest transfer factor (soil to plant) was noted for Cd and Ca, respectively. Concentrations of PHEs in most of the sewage-irrigated vegetables were below the published upper threshold limits, except for Cd in the fruiting portion of eggplant and bell pepper (0.06–0.08 mg/kg Cd, dry weight) at three locations in Gujarat and Kasur districts. The bioaccessible fraction of PHEs can reduce the context of dietary intake measurements compared to total concentrations, but differences between both measurements were not significant for Cd. Since the soils of the sampled districts are not overly contaminated compared to control sites, vegetables grown over sewage-irrigated soils would provide an opportunity to harvest mineral-rich vegetables potentially providing consumers 62, 60, 12, 104, and 63 % higher dietary intake of Cu, Mn, Zn, Ca, and Mg, respectively. Based on Fe and vanadium correlations in vegetables, it is inferred that a significant proportion of total dietary Fe intake could be contributed by soil particles adhered to the consumable portion of vegetables. Faecal sterol ratios were used to identify and distinguish the source of faecal contamination in soils from Gujranwala, Gujarat, and Lahore districts, confirming the presence of human-derived sewage biomarkers at different stages of environmental alteration. A strong correlation of some metals with soil organic matter concentration was observed, but none with sewage biomarkers.     

Cues from a common predator cause survival-linked behavioral adjustments in Mojave Desert tortoises (Gopherus agassizii)

Behavioral Ecology and Sociobiology - Adult animals of many species often behave in a cannibalistic manner when encountering conspecific offspring. Kin discrimination is critical for avoiding the...     

Isotopic composition (C & N) of the suspended particles and N uptake by phytoplankton in a shallow tropical coastal lagoon

The spatial distribution of the C/N ratios and variations in δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N of suspended particulate matter were used to characterise their source in Asia’s largest brackish water lagoon, Chilika, India. In addition, the significance of re-mineralised nutrients in the primary productivity of the shallow lagoon was also determined through quantification of the subsurface nitrogen uptake conditions at two relatively stable locations in the lagoon. The results indicated that the influence of terrestrial organic matter was the maximum in the northern sector and was relatively limited at the central and southern part of the lagoon. In situ ¹⁵N uptake experiments (daytime) under biogeochemically stable conditions revealed that the N uptake by phytoplankton ranged between 0.24 and 1.01?mM?m^?3?h^?1 during pre-monsoon and post-monsoon seasons. New production and regenerated production in the shallow lagoon was also estimated by calculating f-ratios (ratio of nitrate assimilation by phytoplankton to total nitrogenous nutrient assimilation, have been estimated), which varied from 0.52 in the post-monsoon to 0.38 in the pre-monsoon. Lowering of the f-ratio from post- to pre-monsoon indicated a dominance of mineralisation over the new production.