Models at the interface between science and society: impacts and options

Within the CLEAR project a new approach to integrated assessment modelling has been developed for the participatory integrated assessment of regional climate change involving citizens' focus groups. The climate change decision problem was structured by focusing separately on climate impacts and mitigation options. The attempt was made to link the different scales of the problem from the individual to the global level. The abstract topic of climate change was related to options on the level of a citizen's individual lifestyle. The option of a low energy society was emphasised in order to embed the climate change decision problem in a wider range of societal concerns. Special emphasis was given to the characterisation and communication of uncertainties. The chosen approach allows different kinds of uncertainties in one framework to be addressed. The paper concludes with a summary of the experience made, and recommendations for the use of models in participatory integrated assessments. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The value of the environment – Is it a matter of approach?

This paper discusses why estimates of the benefits of reduced air pollution differ in accordance with the approach used. Estimates based on bottom-up studies of the damage costs related to air pollution usually turn out much lower than estimates based on assessments of the utility of reduced air pollution, obtained for instance by willingness to pay assessments. This is usually explained by the fact that the willingness to pay approach includes the utility aspect of non-market values, and for this reason, it is often preferred to the damage cost approach. This is, however, not the whole story. The paper shows why alternative approaches should not be considered as being in conflict, but rather as means to get supplementary information necessary to put a value on environmental quality. Information from bottom-up assessments of damage costs and from studies of the willingness to pay is used in a macroeconomic model to carry out an evaluation of the social costs of energy saving measures in Hungary.     

Responses of Physical, Chemical, and Biological Indicators of Water Quality to a Gradient of Agricultural Land Use in the Yakima River Basin, Washington

The condition of 25 stream sites in the Yakima River Basin, Washington, were assessed by the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment Program. Multimetric condition indices were developed and used to rank sites on the basis of physical, chemical, and biological characteristics. These indices showed that sites in the Cascades and Eastern Cascades ecoregions were largely unimpaired. In contrast, all but two sites in the Columbia Basin ecoregion were impaired, some severely. Agriculture (nutrients and pesticides) was the primary factor associated with impairment and all impaired sites were characterized by multiple indicators of impairment. All indices of biological condition (fish, invertebrates, and algae) declined as agricultural intensity increased. The response exhibited by invertebrates and algae suggested a threshold response with conditions declining precipitously at relatively low levels of agricultural intensity and little response at moderate to high levels of agricultural intensity. This pattern of response suggests that the success of mitigation will vary depending upon where on the response curve the mitigation is undertaken. Because the form of the community condition response is critical to effective water-quality management, the National Water-Quality Assessment Program is conducting studies to examine the response of biota to gradients of land-use intensity and the relevance of these responses to water-quality management. These land-use gradient pilot studies will be conducted in several urban areas starting in 1999.     

Prediction models of CO, SPM and SO2 concentrations in the Campo de Gibraltar Region, Spain: a multiple comparison strategy

The 'Campo de Gibraltar' region is a very industrialized area where very few air pollution studies have been carried out. Up to date, no model has been developed in order to predict air pollutant levels in the different towns spread in the region. Carbon monoxide (CO), Sulphur dioxide (SO(2)) and suspended particulate matter (SPM) series have been investigated (years 1999-2000-2001). Multilayer perceptron models (MLPs) with backpropagation learning rule have been used. A resampling strategy with two-fold crossvalidation allowed the statistical comparison of the different models considered in this study. Artificial neural networks (ANN) models were compared with Persistence and ARIMA models and also with models based on standard Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) over test sets with data that had not been used in the training stage. The models based on ANNs showed better capability of generalization than those based on MLR. The designed procedure of random resampling permits an adequate and robust multiple comparison of the tested models. Principal component analysis (PCA) is used to reduce the dimensionality of data and to transform exogenous variables into significant and independent components. Short-term predictions were better than medium-term predictions in the case of CO and SO(2) series. Conversely, medium-term predictions were better in the case of SPM concentrations. The predictions are significantly promising (e.g., d (SPM 24-ahead) = 0.906, d (CO 1-ahead) = 0.891, d (SO2 1-ahead) = 0.851).     

Quantitative arsenic speciation in two species of earthworms from a former mine site

The relationship between the total arsenic concentration and the chemical speciation of arsenic in two species of earthworm (Lumbricus rubellus and Dendrodrilus rubidus) in relation to the host soil, was investigated for 13 sites of varying arsenic content, including a background level garden soil and a former mine site at the Devon Great Consols, UK. Earthworms were collected with the host soil (As soil concentration range 16-12, 466 mg kg(-1) dry weight) and measured for their total arsenic (concentration range 7-595 mg kg(-1) dry weight) using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). A methanol-water mixture was used to extract arsenic species from the earthworms prior to determination of the individual arsenic species by a combination of anion and cation exchange high performance liquid chromatography coupled to inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (HPLC-ICP-MS). A gradient elution anion exchange method is presented whereby nine arsenic species could be measured in one sample injection. Arsenic species were identified by comparison of retention times and sample spiking with known standards and a fully characterised seaweed extract. Arsenic was generally present in the earthworm as arsenate (As(V)) or arsenite (As(III)) and arsenobetaine (AB). Methylarsonate (MA), dimethylarsinate (DMA) and three arsenosugars (glycerol, phosphate, sulfate) were present as minor constituents. These results are discussed in relation to the mechanisms for coping with exposure to soil bound arsenic.     

Critical technical elements of state bioassessment programs: a process to evaluate program rigor and comparability

We developed a systematic process to evaluate state/tribal bioassessment programs to provide information about the rigor of the technical approach. This is accomplished via on-site interviews to produce an evaluation that assigns one of four levels of rigor as an outcome. Level 4 is the most rigorous and reflects a technical capacity to accurately determine incremental condition and support management programs. The remaining three levels are less able to assess incremental condition and are appropriate for only some management support needs. Accurately determining impairment and diagnosing pollution-specific stressors are fundamental tasks that states/tribes must accomplish to provide management support. This goal is fulfilled to varying degrees by most states/tribes. The evaluation employs a checklist and a sliding scale of rigor for 13 technical elements. Feedback is provided to each state/tribe via a technical memorandum that describes the technical components of the monitoring program, highlights strengths, and recommends improvements for specific technical issues. This can be used to refine the bioassessment and monitoring programs to better support management programs. The results of 14 state/tribal evaluations are included here. The majority (nine states, one tribe) revealed that most operate at level 2 with developmental activities that will elevate the level of program rigor already underway. Two states operate level 4 programs and each have numeric biocriteria and refined designated uses in their water quality standards. This is the ultimate goal of the process of engaging states in the development of bioassessment programs in the U.S.     

Plasma concentration of organochlorine compounds is associated with age and not obesity

It has been suggested that obese individuals, because of an increased dilution space (body fat) for lipophilic organochlorines compounds, may have greater levels of toxic pollutants than lean sedentary individuals. It is important to further examine this possibility because of the potential contribution of organochlorine pesticides in the development of Parkinson's disease and other neurological diseases. The aim of this study was to further investigate the relationship between the magnitude of obesity and the plasma concentration of organochlorines for a wide range of BMI (with participants at steady state body weight). Fifty-three individuals were selected on the basis of their body mass index (BMI): lean controls (n=16; mean BMI 22.8+/-2.2 kg/m(2); mean age 38.8+/-9.4 years), obese individuals (n=19; mean BMI 33.4+/-3.0 kg/m(2); mean age 38.6+/-7.6 years) and morbidly obese individuals (n=18; mean BMI 49.3+/-6.5 kg/m(2); mean age 44.3+/-9.2 years). Blood samples were analyzed for organochlorine compounds. The relationship between the total plasma organochlorine concentration and BMI was tested using a multiple regression analysis. Age was included in the model. There was no relationship between the total plasma organochlorine concentration and BMI. Organochlorine concentrations, however, were correlated with age (BMI-adjusted R(2)=0.46; p<0.001). At steady state body weight, toxic pollutant concentrations are not associated to obesity but strongly correlate with age.     

The historical record of PCB and PCDD/F deposition at Greifensee, a lake of the Swiss plateau, between 1848 and 1999

Dated sediment cores provide an excellent way to investigate the historical input of persistent organic pollutants into the environment and to identify possible sources of pollution. The vertical distribution of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins/polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDD/F) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB) was investigated in a sediment core from Greifensee to elucidate the historical trends of PCDD/F and PCB inputs between 1848 and 1999. Concentrations of PCB and PCDD/F increased by more than one order of magnitude between 1930 and 1960. PCB and PCDD/F concentrations were 5700 ng/kg dry weight (dw) and 160 ng/kg dw, respectively, in sediments originating from the late 1930s and reached a maximum of 130,000 ng/kg dw and 2400 ng/kg dw, respectively, in the early 1960s. From 1960 on, concentrations decreased to the 1930s level by the mid 1980s. A remarkable shift in the PCDD/F pattern was observed after the early 1940s. Before 1940, the PCDD/F pattern was PCDF dominated (ratio of PCDD to PCDF=0.41+/-0.11), while the PCDD started to be the major species after the early 1940s (ratio of PCDD to PCDF=1.46+/-0.38). The temporal trends of PCB and PCDD/F correlate surprisingly well with each other. This might be due to the coincidence of two factors. The introduction of PCB on the market in the 1930s resulted in emissions due to the widespread use of these industrial chemicals. In the same time period, waste incineration became an increasingly popular way to get rid of garbage, boosting the PCDD/F emissions significantly. The rapid decline of PCDD/F and PCB concentrations in the sediment starting in the early 1960s reflects the result of better emission control techniques in thermal processes and the improvement of waste water treatment in the catchment of Greifensee.     

Daytime resolved analysis of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in urban aerosol samples - impact of sources and meteorological conditions

Urban aerosol was collected in a summer and a winter campaign for 7 and 3 days, respectively. Low volume samples were taken with a time resolution of 160 min using a filter/sorption cartridge system extended by an ozone scrubber. Concentrations of mainly particle associated polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) and oxidised PAH (O-PAH) were determined by gas chromatography/high resolution mass spectrometry. The sampling site was located in the city centre of Augsburg, Germany, near major roads with high traffic volume. The daily concentrations and profiles were mainly governed by local emissions from traffic and domestic heating, as well as by the meteorological conditions. During the winter campaign, concentrations were more than 10 fold higher than during the summer campaign. Highest concentrations were found concurrent with low boundary layer heights and low wind speeds. Significant diurnal variation of the PAH profiles was observed. Enhanced influences of traffic related PAH on the PAH profiles were evident during daytime in summer, whereas emissions from hot water generation and domestic heating were obvious during the night time of both seasons. A general idea about the global meteorological situation was acquired using back trajectory calculations (NOAA ARL HYSPLIT4). Due to high local emissions in combination with low air exchange during the two sampling campaigns, effects of mesoscale transport were not clearly observable.     

Risk assessment of linear alkylbenzene sulphonates, LAS, in agricultural soil revisited: robust chronic toxicity tests for Folsomia candida (Collembola), Aporrectodea caliginosa (Oligochaeta) and Enchytraeus crypticus (Enchytraeidae)

To obtain robust data on the toxicity of LAS, tests with the collembolan Folsomia candida L., the oligochaetes Aporrectodea caliginosa Savigny (earthworm) and Enchytraeus crypticus Westheide and Graefe (enchytraeid) were performed in a sandy loam soil. Additionally limited tests with LAS spiked to sewage sludge, and subsequently mixed into soil, were performed. For the endpoint of interest, reproduction in soil, we found an EC10 of 205 mg LAS kg(-1) soil [8.6-401] [95% confidence limits] for F. candida and an EC10 of 46 mg LAS kg(-1) soil [13-80] for A. caliginosa after 28 days. E. crypticus was not affected by concentrations up to 120 mg LAS kg(-1) soil. When adding (low contaminated) non-spiked sludge to soil, high stimulation of reproduction was observed for E. crypticus and A. caliginosa but not for F. candida. We argue that this difference in stimulative response between the tested species is related to the difference in feeding behaviour. Sludge spiked with LAS did not significantly affect the reproduction of F. candida (fertility: number of juvenile offspring) and A. caliginosa (fecundity: number of cocoons) (dose equivalent to 181 g and 91 g LAS kg(-1) sludge, respectively). Significantly reduced reproduction was observed for E. crypticus (at 120 mg LAS kg(-1) soil+sludge corresponding to 72 g LAS kg(-1) sludge) compared to non-spiked sludge. The reproduction by E. crypticus was, however, comparable to the reproduction observed in the control soil without sludge. Compared to LAS directly spiked to soil, the reproductive output of organisms exposed to spiked sludge was either not significantly different (F. candida, E. crypticus) or significantly improved (A. caliginosa). More studies are needed in order to make firm conclusions on the potential effect of artificially contaminated sludge in soil systems.