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121.
Numerous analyses of the possible impacts of future climatic changes on tree species composition have been published for
both lowland and high-elevation forests. Most of these studies were based on the application of forest "gap" models, and the
vast majority of them considered only changes in the average of climatic parameters over time. In this study, we use a unique
data set on reconstructed past climatic variations to analyse forest dynamics simulated by the forest gap model ForClim. This
analysis forms the basis for a systematic exploration of the ecological effects of changing means vs. changing variability
of climate on central European forests. A reconstruction of historical climate covering the last 470 years in the Swiss lowlands
(ClimIndex) is extrapolated to a transect across the alpine (cold) treeline and used to simulate the influence of climate
variations on the time scale of decades on forest biomass and tree species composition at both sites. While the simulation
at the low-elevation site shows little sensitivity to climate variations, the results from upper subalpine forests suggest
that two major dieback events would have occurred at elevations above the current but below the climatic tree line, induced
by clusters of exceptionally cold summers. The results are in agreement with available dendrochronological data and with documentary
evidence on massive negative impacts on flora and fauna at high elevations during these periods. We conclude that ForClim
is capable of capturing the effects on tree population dynamics of climate variability at these sites as reconstructed from
the ClimIndex record. A factorial design is used to address the sensitivity of ForClim to changes of the long-term averages
vs. changes of the variability of monthly temperature and precipitation data. To this end, the simulated tree species composition
of near-natural forests is examined along a climate gradient in Europe. The results indicate that there are three types of
forest response: (1) little sensitivity to both kinds of change, (2) strong sensitivity to changes in the means, but little
sensitivity to changing variability, and (3) strong sensitivity to changing variability at least in parts of the examined
climate space. Half of the cases investigated fall under the third category, suggesting that emphasis should be placed on
also assessing the sensitivity of ecosystems to future changes in climate variability rather than on changes of average values
alone.
Electronic Publication 相似文献
122.
Antoine Longieras Jean-Baptiste Tanchette Damien Erre Christian Braud Alain Copinet 《Journal of Polymers and the Environment》2007,15(3):200-206
Commercial poly(lactide) degradation was studied in an inert solid medium simulating compost conditions, with the aim to achieve
a complete carbon balance of the polymer degradation. The mineralisation rate at the end of the test was compared to those
obtained for poly(lactide) degradation in compost. It was shown that the mineralisation rate after 45 days of degradation
was quite lower in inert solid medium than in compost but the standard deviation of data was enhanced. A protocol for both
extraction and quantification of the carbon included in the different degradation by-products was proposed and the carbon
balance of the polymer degradation was followed during the test with a satisfactory accuracy. The non-degraded PLA material
was recovered during the test, hence the evolution of the glass transition temperature and the molecular weight was followed.
A two-step degradation mechanism was highlighted in inert solid medium, showing the fundamental role of abiotic reactions
for PLA degradation in compost. 相似文献
123.
The microbiological and physico-chemical characteristics of the drinking water supplied by the Central Borehole at the University
of Benin, Ugbowo Campus were investigated. The investigation entailed assessment of the pH, turbidity, total suspended solids,
total dissolved solids, dissolved oxygen, temperature, salinity, conductivity, nitrate, nitrite, phosphate, sulphate, chloride,
N-nitroso compounds, cadmium, chromium, nickel, lead, zinc, manganese, iron, coliform count, BOD5 and COD of the water at the Central Borehole and at ten residential quarters. The assessment indicated that the water was
fit for drinking and other domestic applications. Results were also compared with WHO, EU and Nigeria FEPA standards. The
results showed that the pH values of the water (5.01–5.86) and total coliform count (1–2/100 ml) expressed as MPN were outside
the limits set by the WHO, EU and FEPA. The data also showed that the other water quality parameters assessed were within
WHO, EU and FEPA permissible limits. The results of ANOVA showed that significant changes occurred during distribution. 相似文献
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Claudia Pahl-Wostl Georg Holtz Britta Kastens Christian Knieper 《Environmental Science & Policy》2010,13(7):571-581
This paper presents the Management and Transition Framework (MTF), an interdisciplinary conceptual and methodological framework supporting the analysis of water systems, management processes and multi-level governance regimes. It serves to improve the scientific understanding of system properties and to give practical guidance for the implementation of transition processes towards more adaptive systems. Doing so requires a systemic perspective to embrace complexity and the wealth of interactions characterizing resource governance regimes. The MTF supports and provides guidance for an interdisciplinary approach in the social sciences and across the social–natural science interface.The framework integrates a range of concepts to develop a more coherent understanding of the complexity of water management regimes. Specific emphasis is given to adaptive capacity and learning processes. However, the MTF is not linked to one specific theory but provides a language that can be tailored to specific research questions and different theoretical approaches. The structured yet flexible approach is a condition for developing shared databases that allow comparative analyses over a wider range of case studies. The MTF does not promote panaceas but a diagnostic approach supporting context sensitive analysis without being case specific and thus not directly transferable. 相似文献
128.
Lisa Ernoul Nicolas Beck Damien Cohez Christian Perennou Marc Thibault Loic Willm 《Journal of Environmental Planning and Management》2015,58(6):1096-1112
This study analysed 14 management plans and guidelines from a 25-year period to understand trends in conservation planning. A Rosetta Stone Analysis was used for the systematic comparison of plans and guidelines. Management plans incorporated management philosophies, management scenarios, opportunities for infrastructure, and plans for data collection by 2000. As of 2010, they incorporated ecosystem services, stakeholders’ objectives and methods for storing and analysing data. The results demonstrate the complex nature of management plans, with an important workload for site managers. Recommendations for future planning include adjustments in planning timeframes and a better identification of conservation targets from initial stages. 相似文献
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