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441.
Improving credibility and transparency of conservation impact evaluations through the partial identification approach
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Matthew M. McConnachie Claudia Romero Paul J. Ferraro Brian W. van Wilgen 《Conservation biology》2016,30(2):371-381
The fundamental challenge of evaluating the impact of conservation interventions is that researchers must estimate the difference between the outcome after an intervention occurred and what the outcome would have been without it (counterfactual). Because the counterfactual is unobservable, researchers must make an untestable assumption that some units (e.g., organisms or sites) that were not exposed to the intervention can be used as a surrogate for the counterfactual (control). The conventional approach is to make a point estimate (i.e., single number along with a confidence interval) of impact, using, for example, regression. Point estimates provide powerful conclusions, but in nonexperimental contexts they depend on strong assumptions about the counterfactual that often lack transparency and credibility. An alternative approach, called partial identification (PI), is to first estimate what the counterfactual bounds would be if the weakest possible assumptions were made. Then, one narrows the bounds by using stronger but credible assumptions based on an understanding of why units were selected for the intervention and how they might respond to it. We applied this approach and compared it with conventional approaches by estimating the impact of a conservation program that removed invasive trees in part of the Cape Floristic Region. Even when we used our largest PI impact estimate, the program's control costs were 1.4 times higher than previously estimated. PI holds promise for applications in conservation science because it encourages researchers to better understand and account for treatment selection biases; can offer insights into the plausibility of conventional point‐estimate approaches; could reduce the problem of advocacy in science; might be easier for stakeholders to agree on a bounded estimate than a point estimate where impacts are contentious; and requires only basic arithmetic skills. 相似文献
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The River Avoca is severely polluted by discharges of acid mine drainage (AMD) from the abandoned sulphur and copper mines at Avoca. The riverine sediments were studied during a low flow period to establish the degree of contamination and to identify the major processes affecting sediment metal concentrations. pH plays a major role in the regulation of zinc adsorption and desorption in sediments, showing a significant correlation (p&0.001). The zinc concentration in the sediment falls below background levels after the input of AMD. However, the metal precipitated when the pH increased downstream of a fertiliser factory (pH8.0), some 7 km below the mine. In contrast Cu and Fe significantly increased (p0.001) both in the sediment (0--30 mm depth) and the surface ochre immediately below the mixing zone. Copper removal appears to be primarily by co-precipitation. Higher sediment enrichment factors for all metals were obtained in the surface sediment layer (ochre) deposited on larger stones and in floc material collected in sediment traps, compared with the subsurface sediment. Cadmium was not recorded in any of the sediment collected at the detection limit used (0.01 g g-1). Metal deposition in the sediments was found to be spacially variable, so sub-sampling is required, although replicates show little variation. Results indicate that short term variation in metal inputs is identified by sampling the surface layer only, whereas sampling of the subsurface layer (<63 m fraction) is more suitable for identifying long-term trends in sediment quality. The implication of sediment analysis in assessing environmental impact is discussed. 相似文献
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To ensure proper development of young, mothers should react to offspring signals of need. Studies of such parent-offspring interaction often manipulated litter size to measure effects of changed offspring food demand. We used the extreme precociality of guinea pig (Cavia porcellus) pups to increase offspring demand without changing any other litter characteristic. As pups contribute to their own energy demands from birth by independent feeding, their food demand can be increased by withholding solid food early in lactation. We studied whether mothers reacted to increased food demand of offspring by enhanced parental care, especially by changes in the pattern of milk production and nursing. Pups deprived of solid food early in lactation grew more slowly and were in poorer body condition than pups in control litters, even after the former had access to solid food in late lactation. Mothers of deprived young reacted to offspring long-term need by maintaining nursing behaviour for longer than control mothers. However, this change in behaviour did not occur early in lactation when pup short-term need was greatest nor did it result in increased milk transfer at any time. Energy allocation of mothers measured by changes in their food intake, maternal body reserves, and milk production stayed the same whether offspring had early access to solid food or not. Thus mothers did not increase energy allocation to pups even though they apparently had information about the pups' poor state. 相似文献
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Summary Acoustical signals emitted by dancing bees have recently been shown to transmit information about the location of food sources in the western honeybee, Apis mellifera. Towne (1985) reported that in the Asian honeybee species Apis dorsata, which builds a single comb in the open under overhanging rocks or tree branches, sound signals were not emitted by the dancers. This led to the conclusion that acoustical communication is restricted to bees that nest in the dark, like A. mellifera. Here we show that in fact A. dorsata produces dance sounds similar to those emitted by A. mellifera, and that these acoustical signals contain information about distance, direction and profitability of food sources. The acoustical transfer of information has thus evolved independently of nesting in dark cavities. The significance of nocturnal activity in Apis dorsata for the evolution of sound communication is discussed.
Correspondence to: W.H. Kirchner 相似文献
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M. Manni R. Heydanus N. S. Den Hollander P. A. Stewart Ch. de Vogelaere Professor J. W. Wladimiroff 《黑龙江环境通报》1994,14(3):187-190
In a retrospective analysis of 28 cases of fetal diaphragmatic hernia, overall mortality was 86 per cent, but fell to 70 per cent when multiple anomalies were excluded. Congenital heart disease constituted the majority of associated anomalies. The incidence of an abnormal karyotype was 10·5 per cent, but rose to 20 per cent when only fetuses with multiple anomalies were included. Polyhydramnios, which occurred in 75 per cent, was a poor predictor of fetal outcome. The same applied to the intrathoracic position of the fetal stomach. In all four survivors, diaphragmatic hernia was diagnosed beyond 32 weeks of gestation. 相似文献