Database-driven models of the world's Large Marine Ecosystems

We present a new methodology for database-driven ecosystem model generation and apply the methodology to the world's 66 currently defined Large Marine Ecosystems. The method relies on a large number of spatial and temporal databases, including FishBase, SeaLifeBase, as well as several other databases developed notably as part of the Sea Around Us project. The models are formulated using the freely available Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) modeling approach and software. We tune the models by fitting to available time series data, but recognize that the models represent only a first-generation of database-driven ecosystem models. We use the models to obtain a first estimate of fish biomass in the world's LMEs. The biggest hurdles at present to further model development and validation are insufficient time series trend information, and data on spatial fishing effort.     

EcoTroph: Modelling marine ecosystem functioning and impact of fishing

EcoTroph (ET) is a model articulated around the idea that the functioning of aquatic ecosystems may be viewed as a biomass flow moving from lower to higher trophic levels, due to predation and ontogenetic processes. Thus, we show that the ecosystem biomass present at a given trophic level may be estimated from two simple equations, one describing biomass flow, the other their kinetics (which quantifies the velocity of biomass transfers towards top predators). The flow kinetic of prey partly depends on the abundance of their predators, and a top-down equation expressing this is included in the model. Based on these relationships, we simulated the impact on a virtual ecosystem of various exploitation patterns. Specifically, we show that the EcoTroph approach is able to mimic the effects of increased fishing effort on ecosystem biomass expected from theory. Particularly, the model exhibits complex patterns observed in field data, notably cascading effects and ‘fishing down the food web’. EcoTroph also provides diagnostic tools for examining the relationships between catch and fishing effort at the ecosystem scale and the effects of strong top-down controls and fast-flow kinetics on ecosystems resilience. Finally, a dynamic version of the model is derived from the steady-state version, thus allowing simulations of time series of ecosystem biomass and catches. Using this dynamic model, we explore the propagation of environmental variability in the food web, and illustrated how exploitation can induce a decrease of ecosystem stability. The potential for applying EcoTroph to specific ecosystems, based on field data, and similarities between EcoTroph and Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) are finally discussed.     

英国塘鹅蛋中多氯联苯同类物的时空变化趋势

1977～1998年间,在苏格兰西部的艾尔萨克雷格对收集到的塘鹅蛋中的多氯联苯(PCB)同类物进行了回顾性分析.对一些年份所收集的塘鹅蛋中每年选择8～10个对其PCB同类物浓度范围分别进行了分析.所有的同类物在几年之内浓度都降在低,但不同的同类物降解速率不同.     

Ecological restoration as a strategy for mitigating and adapting to climate change: lessons and challenges from Brazil

Climate change is a global phenomenon that affects biophysical systems and human well-being. The Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change entered into force in 2016 with the objective of strengthening the global response to climate change by keeping global temperature rise this century well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5 °C. The agreement requires all Parties to submit their “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs) and to strengthen these efforts in the years ahead. Reducing carbon emissions from deforestation and forest degradation is an important strategy for mitigating climate change, particularly in developing countries with large forests. Extensive tropical forest loss and degradation have increased awareness at the international level of the need to undertake large-scale ecological restoration, highlighting the need to identify cases in which restoration strategies can contribute to mitigation and adaptation. Here we consider Brazil as a case study to evaluate the benefits and challenges of implementing large-scale restoration programs in developing countries. The Brazilian NDC included the target of restoring and reforesting 12 million hectares of forests for multiple uses by 2030. Restoration of native vegetation is one of the foundations of sustainable rural development in Brazil and should consider multiple purposes, from biodiversity and ecosystem services conservation to social and economic development. However, ecological restoration still presents substantial challenges for tropical and mega-diverse countries, including the need to develop plans that are technically and financially feasible, as well as public policies and monitoring instruments that can assess effectiveness. The planning, execution, and monitoring of restoration efforts strongly depend on the context and the diagnosis of the area with respect to reference ecosystems (e.g., forests, savannas, grasslands, wetlands). In addition, poor integration of climate change policies at the national and subnational levels and with other sectorial policies constrains the large-scale implementation of restoration programs. The case of Brazil shows that slowing deforestation is possible; however, this analysis highlights the need for increased national commitment and international support for actions that require large-scale transformations of the forest sector regarding ecosystem restoration efforts. Scaling up the ambitions and actions of the Paris Agreement implies the need for a global framework that recognizes landscape restoration as a cost-effective nature-based solution and that supports countries in addressing their remaining needs, challenges, and barriers.

     

Spectral trend of vegetation with rainfall in events of El Niño-Southern Oscillation for Atlantic Forest biome,Brazil

This study aimed to analyze the spectral trend of vegetation with rainfall in El Niño-Southern Oscillation events (ENSO) in the Atlantic Forest, Brazil. Monthly rainfall data were collected from 85 conventional meteorological stations (EMC), data from the Enhanced Vegetation Index 2 (EVI2) and ENSO events (El Niño, La Niña, and Neutral) in the period from 2001 to 2013. Afterwards, state cluster analysis was performed using the results of non-parametric tests. The Mann-Kendall (MK) non-parametric test did not identify a trend pattern in rainfall distribution in the Atlantic Forest. The results for EVI2 by state and region showed that the trend is decreasing in the Northeast Region, except for the states of Alagoas and Pernambuco. Southeast region showed an increasing trend of EVI2 (except for Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo), while the South region showed a decreasing trend. In the Midwest, the trend was significantly decreasing. In the prognosis elaborated for the future, the regions with significant declines of the vegetation were the Northeast and Midwest. This study shows that the Atlantic Forest in some regions of Brazil has been suffering from the growing urbanization process and there is a trend of soil degradation.     

ERD of Residual TCE DNAPL Achieving Nondetect from a Single Injection of Food‐Grade Waste

Residual dense nonaqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) composed of trichloroethene (TCE) was identified in a deeper interval of an overburden groundwater system at a manufacturing facility located in northern New England. Site hydrostratigraphy is characterized by two laterally continuous and transmissive zones consisting of fully‐saturated fine sand with silt and clay. The primary DNAPL source was identified as a former dry well with secondary contributions from a proximal aboveground TCE storage tank. A single additive‐injection mobilization in 2001 utilizing a food‐grade injectate formulated with waste dairy product and inactive yeast enhanced residual TCE DNAPL destruction in situ by stimulating biotic reductive dechlorination. The baseline TCE concentration was detected up to 97,400 μg/L in the deeper interval of the overburden groundwater system, and enhanced reductive dechlorination (ERD) achieved >99 percent reduction in TCE concentrations in groundwater over nine years with no evidence of sustained rebound. TCE concentrations have remained nondetect below 2.0 μg/L for the last five consecutive sampling rounds between 2013 and 2015. ERD utilizing a food‐grade injectate is a green remediation technology that has destroyed residual DNAPL at the site and achieved similar results at other residual DNAPL sites during both pilot‐ and full‐scale applications. ©2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Biomechanical response targets for physical and computational models of the pediatric trunk

Objectives: This paper quantifies pediatric thoracoabdominal response to belt loading to guide the scaling of existing adult response data and to assess the validity of a juvenile porcine abdominal model for application to the development of physical and computational models of the human child. Methods: Table-top belt-loading experiments were performed on 6, 7, and 15 year-old pediatric post-mortem human subjects (PMHS). Response targets are reported for diagonal belt and distributed loading of the anterior thorax and for horizontal belt loading of the abdomen. Results: The pediatric PMHS exhibited abdominal response similar to the swine, including the degree of rate sensitivity. The thoraces of the PMHS were as stiff as, or slightly more stiff than, published adult corridors. Conclusions: An assessment of age-related changes in thoracic stiffness suggests that the effective stiffness of the chest increases through the fourth decade of life and then decreases, resulting in stiffness values similar for children and elderly adults.     

Modeling kelp forest distribution and biomass along temperate rocky coastlines

We address the global deficit of data describing kelp forest distribution, relative covers and biomass by testing the ability of species distribution models to predict these attributes at locations where data are currently limited. We integrated biological ground truth data with high-resolution environmental datasets to develop generalized additive models that accurately predict the structure of Laminaria forests within the Bay of Morlaix (48°42′42″N, 3°55′40″W). Forest distribution and proportional covers were predicted using water depth, light availability, wave exposure and sediment dynamics. The biomass of individual kelp species was modeled by supplementing these same variables with measures of seafloor slope and benthic position. Biomass predictions for Laminaria digitata and Laminaria hyperborea contrast the physiological tolerances of these species to light and wave exposure gradients. As a direct management output, we produced high-resolution maps (25 m² grids) that closely match independent field data and provide vital information for marine spatial planning.     

Growth and survival differences among native,introduced and hybrid blue mussels (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Mytilus</Emphasis> spp.): genotype,environment and interaction effects

The Mytilus species complex consists of three closely related mussel species: Mytilus trossulus, Mytilus edulis, and Mytilus galloprovincialis, which are found globally in temperate intertidal waters. Introduction of one or more of these species have occurred world-wide via shipping and aquaculture. Stable hybrid zones have developed in areas where these species have come into contact, making the invasion process complex. On the east coast of Vancouver Island (VI), British Columbia (BC), Canada, the native (M. trossulus) and introduced species (M. edulis and M. galloprovincialis), as well as their hybrid offspring, occur sympatrically. This study used a common environment experiment to quantify growth and survival differences among native, introduced, and introgressed mussels on VI. Mussels were collected from an area of known hybridization and reared in cages from May to August 2006. The cages were deployed at a local site as well as a remote site (approximately 150 km apart), and the mussels were genotyped at two species-specific loci. Growth and survival, as fitness measures, were monitored: native, introduced, and introgressed individuals were compared between and within sites to determine whether growth and survival were independent of site and genotype. Overall, mussels reared at Quadra Island performed better than locally-reared mussels at Ladysmith. Specifically, introgressed mussels reared at Quadra Island performed better than all genotypes reared at Ladysmith, as well as better than native mussels reared at Quadra Island. Differences in survival and growth among the native, introduced and introgressed mussels may serve to explain the complex hybridization patterns and dynamics characteristic of the VI introgression zone.     

Living close, doing differently: small-scale asynchrony in demography of two species of seabirds

Studies on spatiotemporal pattern of population abundance predict that close populations should exhibit a high level of synchrony, reflected in a parallel time variation of at least one demographic parameter. We tested this prediction for two threatened species of Procellariiformes sharing similar life history traits: the European Storm Petrel (Hydrobates pelagicus) and the Balearic Shearwater (Puffinus mauretanicus). Within each species, we compared adult survival, proportion of transients (breeders that do not settle), and average productivity at two neighboring colonies. Physical and environmental features (e.g., food availability) of the breeding sites were similar. However, while Balearic Shearwater colonies were free of predators, aerial predators occurred especially in one colony of the European Storm Petrel. Despite this difference, we found similar results for the two species. A high proportion of transient birds was detected in only one colony of each species, ranging between 0.00-0.38 and 0.10-0.63 for the petrels and shearwaters, respectively. This seems to be an emergent feature of spatially structured populations of seabirds, unrelated to colony size or predator pressure, that can have important demographic consequences for local population dynamics and their synchrony. Local survival of resident birds was different at each colony, an unexpected result, especially for predator-free colonies of Balearic Shearwater. Productivity varied between the two colonies of European Storm Petrels, but not between the two colonies of Balearic Shearwaters. We demonstrated that within each species, several demographic parameters were colony specific and sufficiently different to generate short-term asynchronous dynamics. Our findings suggest that, in spatially structured populations, local factors, such as predation or small-scale habitat features, or population factors, such as individual quality or age structure, can generate unexpected asynchrony between neighboring populations.