Modeling the Impacts of Two Bark Beetle Species Under a Warming Climate in the Southwestern USA: Ecological and Economic Consequences

Predicted climate warming is expected to have profound effects on bark beetle population dynamics in the southwestern United States. Temperature-mediated effects may include increases in developmental rates, generations per year, and changes in habitat suitability. As a result, the impacts of Dendroctonus frontalis and Dendroctonus mexicanus on forest resources are likely subject to amplification. To assess the implications of such change, we evaluated the generations per year of these species under three climate scenarios using a degree-day development model. We also assessed economic impacts of increased beetle outbreaks in terms of the costs of application of preventative silvicultural treatments and potential economic revenues forgone. Across the southwestern USA, the potential number of beetle generations per year ranged from 1–3+ under historical climate, an increase of 2–4+ under the minimal warming scenario and 3–5+ under the greatest warming scenario. Economic benefits of applying basal area reduction treatments to reduce forest susceptibility to beetle outbreaks ranged from 7.75/ha (NM) to7.75/ha (NM) to 95.69/ha (AZ) under historical conditions, and 47.96/ha (NM) to47.96/ha (NM) to 174.58/ha (AZ) under simulated severe drought conditions. Basal area reduction treatments that reduce forest susceptibility to beetle outbreak result in higher net present values than no action scenarios. Coupled with other deleterious consequences associated with beetle outbreaks, such as increased wildfires, the results suggest that forest thinning treatments play a useful role in a period of climate warming.     

A Comprehensive Land-Use/Hydrological Modeling System for Scenario Simulations in the Elbow River Watershed, Alberta, Canada

The Elbow River watershed in Alberta covers an area of 1,238 km² and represents an important source of water for irrigation and municipal use. In addition to being located within the driest area of southern Canada, it is also subjected to considerable pressure for land development due to the rapid population growth in the City of Calgary. In this study, a comprehensive modeling system was developed to investigate the impact of past and future land-use changes on hydrological processes considering the complex surface–groundwater interactions existing in the watershed. Specifically, a spatially explicit land-use change model was coupled with MIKE SHE/MIKE 11, a distributed physically based catchment and channel flow model. Following a rigorous sensitivity analysis along with the calibration and validation of these models, four land-use change scenarios were simulated from 2010 to 2031: business as usual (BAU), new development concentrated within the Rocky View County (RV-LUC) and in Bragg Creek (BC-LUC), respectively, and development based on projected population growth (P-LUC). The simulation results reveal that the rapid urbanization and deforestation create an increase in overland flow, and a decrease in evapotranspiration (ET), baseflow, and infiltration mainly in the east sub-catchment of the watershed. The land-use scenarios affect the hydrology of the watershed differently. This study is the most comprehensive investigation of its nature done so far in the Elbow River watershed. The results obtained are in accordance with similar studies conducted in Canadian contexts. The proposed modeling system represents a unique and flexible framework for investigating a variety of water related sustainability issues.     

Kinetic Behavior in Melt State and Solid State Polymerization of Lactide Using Magnesium Stearate as Catalyst

Solid state polymerizations (SSP) and the kinetic behavior in melt state of l-lactide polymerizations employing magnesium stearate as catalyst were investigated. The solid state polymerizations were carried out in two steps where pre-polymers were first prepared in melt polymerizations at 180 °C and the subsequent post-polymerizations were performed around the Tc of polylactide (PLA). In order to find the initial SSP conditions, kinetic profiles of melt polymerizations of l-lactide with magnesium stearate were determined. According to the kinetics data the melt polymerizations were found to be first order with respect to lactide as evident from a linear relationship of logarithmic variations of l-lactide concentration versus time using catalyst/monomer ratios of 1:500 and 1:5,000. When the catalyst content is increased to 1:100 the relationship loses its linearity due to fast propagation in the early stages of the reaction. From the GPC data it can be noted that the molecular weight of PLA can be increased by 5–17 times under the conditions established for our SSP experiments. A comparison between the two step solid state polymerizations and already reported melt polymerizations using the same catalyst showed that SSP furnished polymers with much lower amount of polymer degradation.     

Development of clade-specific Symbiodinium primers for quantitative PCR (qPCR) and their application to detecting clade D symbionts in Caribbean corals

We developed quantitative PCR (qPCR) assays to distinguish each of the four clades (A–D) of dinoflagellate endosymbionts (genus Symbiodinium) commonly found in Caribbean corals. We applied these primer sets, which target portions of the multi-copy ribosomal DNA (rDNA) gene family, to assess the presence/absence of symbionts in clade D (as indicated by the detection of clade D DNA). We detected these symbionts in five of six Caribbean host species/genera (21% of samples analyzed, N = 10 of 47 colonies), from which clade D had rarely or never been observed. This suggests that Symbiodinium in clade D are present in a higher diversity of coral species than previously thought. This qPCR-based approach can improve our understanding of the total microbial diversity associated with corals, particularly in hosts thought to be relatively specific, and has many other potential applications for studies of coral reef ecology and conservation.     

To roam or to home: site fidelity in a tropical coastal shark

Understanding patterns in site fidelity is important for defining the ecological role of species in the systems they use and for gauging the effects of human impacts on their populations. We analyzed long-term movement data of adult spottail sharks (Carcharhinus sorrah) in Cleveland Bay, Australia, to define the degree of site fidelity this species shows to coastal areas. Individuals were monitored in the study site for 28–566 days, and residency index (i.e., proportion of days present to total monitoring period) ranged from 0.08 to 0.95. Using a randomization procedure, we determined that the movement paths for 90 % of individuals (11 female and 7 male) were more constrained than random, with individuals exhibiting a high degree of site fidelity to consistent areas within the study site. Examining distances moved revealed that individuals used the same areas repeatedly and remained in close proximity (i.e., <6 km) to their location of first detection. While some individuals consistently used and returned back to the same locations, low residency among others suggests that a portion of the population may roam more widely. Long-term site fidelity to consistent areas may be a successful behavioral strategy for C. sorrah by increasing individual fitness through spatial familiarity and knowledge of resources.     

Biodiversity consequences of alternative future land use scenarios in Greater Yellowstone.

Land use is rapidly expanding in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, primarily from growth in the number of rural homes. There is a need to project possible future land use and assess impacts on nature reserves as a guide to future management. We assessed the potential biodiversity impacts of alternative future land use scenarios in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. An existing regression-based simulation model was used to project three alternative scenarios of future rural home development. The spatial patterns of forecasted development were then compared to several biodiversity response variables that included cover types, species habitats, and biodiversity indices. We identified the four biodiversity responses most at risk of exurban development, designed growth management policies to protect these areas, and tested their effectiveness in two alternative future scenarios. We found that the measured biodiversity responses, including riparian habitat, elk winter range, migration corridors, and eight other land cover, habitat, and biodiversity indices, are likely to undergo substantial conversion (between 5% and 40%) to exurban development by 2020. Future habitat conversion to exurban development outside the region's nature reserves is likely to impact wildlife populations within the reserves. Existing growth management policies will provide minimal protection to biodiversity in this region. We identified specific growth management policies, including incentives to cluster future growth near towns, that can protect "at risk" habitat types without limiting overall growth in housing.