Study on the relationship between the incidence of influenza and climate indicators and the prediction of influenza incidence

In recent 2 years, the incidence of influenza showed a slight upward trend in Guangxi; therefore, some joint actions should be done to help preventing and controlling this disease. The factors analysis of affecting influenza and early prediction of influenza incidence may help policy-making so as to take effective measures to prevent and control influenza. In this study, we used the cross correlation function (CCF) to analyze the effect of climate indicators on influenza incidence, ARIMA and ARIMAX (autoregressive integrated moving average model with exogenous input variables) model methods to do predictive analysis of influenza incidence. The results of CCF analysis showed that climate indicators (PM2.5, PM10, SO₂, CO, NO2, O₃, average temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, average relative humidity, and sunshine duration) had significant effects on the incidence of influenza. People need to take good precautions in the days of severe air pollution and keep warm in cold weather to prevent influenza. We found that the ARIMAX (1,0,1)(0,0,1)₁₂ with NO₂ model has good predictive performance, which can be used to predict the influenza incidence in Guangxi, and the predicted incidence may be useful in developing early warning systems and providing important evidence for influenza control policy-making and public health intervention.

     

Carbon emission intensity of electricity generation in Belt and Road Initiative countries: a benchmarking analysis

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - The scope of this study is to analyze the carbon emissions intensity of electricity generation in “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI)...     

Prediction of half-life for adsorption kinetics in a batch reactor

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Besides adsorption rate constant, the half-life was also a basic factor that described the characteristics of adsorption kinetics. However, the direct...     

Use of historical and contemporary distribution of mammals in China to inform conservation

A systematic understanding of dynamic animal extinction trajectories for different regions in a nation like China is critically important to developing practical conservation strategies. We explored historical and contemporary changes in terrestrial mammalian diversity to determine how diversity in each of the 5 regions in China has changed over time and to examine the conservation potential of these regions. We used records from databases on Pleistocene mammalian fossils and historical distribution records (1175–2020) for Primates (as a case study) to reconstruct evolutionary and historical distribution trajectories of the 11 orders of terrestrial mammals and to predict their prospective survival based on the national conservation strategy applied. The results indicated that since the Pleistocene, 4–5 mammalian orders have been lost in the northeast, 3 in central China, 2 along the coast, and 1 in the northwest. In the southwest, all 11 orders were maintained. Contemporarily, the coast and southwest had the highest and second-highest species densities. The southwest region and southeastern sections of the northwest region were the most historically and contemporarily diverse areas, which suggests that they should be the first priority for protected area (PA) designation. The central and coastal areas should be secondarily prioritized. In these 2 regions, conservation should focus on human coexistence with nature. Less attention should be paid to the PA in the northeast and western northwest because in these areas ecosystems are depauperate and the climate is harsh. Conservation in these areas should focus principally on avoiding further human encroachment on natural areas. Article impact statement: Historical and contemporary patterns of extinction can be a basis for mammalian conservation strategies.     

Evaluation of combined developmental neurological toxicity of di (n-butyl) phthalates and lead using immature mice

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - In this study, the immature mice were taken to assess the potential neurological toxicity of lead (Pb) and di (n-butyl) phthalates (DBP) combination...     

Precursors and potential sources of ground-level ozone in suburban Shanghai

• Air masses from Zhejiang Province is the major source of O₃ in suburban Shanghai. • O₃ formation was in VOC-sensitive regime in rural Shanghai. • O₃ formation was most sensitive to propylene in rural Shanghai. A high level of ozone (O₃) is frequently observed in the suburbs of Shanghai, the reason for this high level remains unclear. To obtain a detailed insight on the high level of O₃ during summer in Shanghai, O₃ and its precursors were measured at a suburban site in Shanghai from July 1, 2016 to July 31, 2016. Using the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model and concentration weighted trajectories (CWT), we found that Zhejiang province was the main potential source of O₃ in suburban Shanghai. When the sampling site was controlled by south-western winds exceeding 2 m/s, the O₃-rich air masses from upwind regions (such as Zhejiang province) could be transported to the suburban Shanghai. The propylene-equivalent concentration (PEC) and ozone formation potential (OFP) were further calculated for each VOC species, and the results suggested that propylene, (m+p)-xylene, and toluene played dominant roles in O₃ formation. The Ozone Isopleth Plotting Research (OZIPR) model was used to reveal the impact of O₃ precursors on O₃ formation, and 4 base-cases were selected to adjust the model simulation. An average disparity of 18.20% was achieved between the simulated and observed O₃ concentrations. The O₃ isopleth diagram illustrated that O₃ formation in July 2016 was in VOC-sensitive regime, although the VOC/NO_x ratio was greater than 20. By introducing sensitivity (S), a sensitivity analysis was performed for O₃ formation. We found that O₃ formation was sensitive to propylene, (m+p)-xylene, o-xylene and toluene. The results provide theoretical support for O₃ pollution treatment in Shanghai.     

Structural regulation of electroplating sludge by a metal–organic framework synthesis method for an enhanced denitrification activity

Journal of Material Cycles and Waste Management - Electroplating sludge contained multi-metals and organics. In previous reports, electroplating sludges were usually recycled by direct calcination...     

Analysis of urban carbon emission efficiency and influencing factors in the Yellow River Basin

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - The Yellow River Basin is an energy-rich area. The low-carbon development of the Yellow River Basin is one of the ways to achieve ecological...