Development of a framework for fire risk assessment using remote sensing and geographic information system technologies

Forest fires play a critical role in landscape transformation, vegetation succession, soil degradation and air quality. Improvements in fire risk estimation are vital to reduce the negative impacts of fire, either by lessen burn severity or intensity through fuel management, or by aiding the natural vegetation recovery using post-fire treatments. This paper presents the methods to generate the input variables and the risk integration developed within the Firemap project (funded under the Spanish Ministry of Science and Technology) to map wildland fire risk for several regions of Spain. After defining the conceptual scheme for fire risk assessment, the paper describes the methods used to generate the risk parameters, and presents proposals for their integration into synthetic risk indices. The generation of the input variables was based on an extensive use of geographic information system and remote sensing technologies, since the project was intended to provide a spatial and temporal assessment of risk conditions. All variables were mapped at 1 km² spatial resolution, and were integrated into a web-mapping service system. This service was active in the summer of 2007 for semi-operational testing of end-users. The paper also presents the first validation results of the danger index, by comparing temporal trends of different danger components and fire occurrence in the different study regions.     

Urbanization and small household agricultural land use choices in the Brazilian Amazon and the role for the water chemistry of small streams

Many small watersheds and streams in the Brazilian Amazon have been impacted by agriculture and urban development, often due to household economic needs and migration processes. This study examined the relationships between land use, soil type, and household factors on stream water chemistry in and near the city of Altamira, Pará, Brazil, in 2008–2009. While soil weathering and stream discharge may have affected several stream water ion concentrations, agriculture and especially urban development were associated with high dissolved nitrogen concentrations, high water temperatures, and low dissolved oxygen concentrations in streams. Younger interviewed households were generally associated with these watersheds, and many urban residents reported disposing of household waste directly into streams. In contrast, older households were generally associated with forest and cocoa agriculture, along with lower water temperatures and higher dissolved oxygen concentrations in streams. These conditions persisted despite reported uses of herbicides and fertilizers by some residents.     

Mating opportunities,paternity, and sexual conflict: paternal care in northern and southern temperate house wrens

Males are generally predicted to care less for their young when they have more additional mating opportunities, lower paternity, or when their mates care more. We tested these predictions using male provisioning as a proxy for paternal care in two temperate populations of house wrens (Troglodytes aedon) with divergent life histories. Males in the migratory, occasionally socially polygynous New York, USA (northern) population provisioned less when more local females were fertile. A similar relationship was only weakly supported in the resident, socially monogamous Buenos Aires Province, Argentina (southern) population, possibly due to the higher density of house wrens there. A relationship between male provisioning and level of paternity within the brood was supported in both populations, but in opposite directions: while males in the southern population provisioned less at broods containing more extra-pair young, males in the northern population provisioned such broods more, contradicting predictions. Males provisioned less when their mates provisioned more in both populations, in agreement with sexual conflict theory. Additionally, the populations both exhibited a positive relationship between male provisioning and nestling age, but differed in the direction of the relationships of male provisioning with date and brood size. Our results suggest that even within a species, life history differences may be accompanied by differences in the determinants of behavior such as paternal care.     

Experimental study on thermal and toxic hazards connected to fire scenarios in road tunnels

The problem of toxic smoke in case of an accident with fire scenario is particularly severe in long tunnels and immediate effects from combustion product exposure often include fatalities. Notwithstanding extensive studies on fire simulation in tunnel, there is still a substantial lack of information on the different toxic products from combustion of light or heavy vehicles. In particular, there is a need for reliable test methods suitable to provide toxic products yields connected to defined accidental fire scenarios. In this paper, experimental runs in a laboratory scaled tunnel, simulating accidental fires of different heat release rates allowed firstly to characterize the thermal profiles in pool and car fires and to compare results by an analytical pool fire model. Results were compared as well with those obtained in a real scale tunnel, so as to quantitatively assess the scaling effect. A series of experiments was performed simulating an accidental scenario including pool fire from collision between a light vehicle and a HazMat heavy vehicle. An extensive set of experimental data allowed performing with good accuracy and reproducibility a complete characterization of toxic gases from car model fires, together with carbon monoxide and oxygen trends. The results obtained under different heat release rates allowed evidencing the dependence of the yields of toxic gases upon the considered scenario. Based on the intrinsic toxicity data of identified compounds, it is possible to draw practical conclusions, useful to assess the potential hazard associated to exposure to toxic smoke in road tunnel.     

On natural resource substitution

We present a simple dynamic model to get some key insights about the substitution of renewable for nonrenewable resources and the consequences for sustainability. We highlight the role of the elasticity of substitution (technological component) to determine the adjustment of production as a response to scarcity and growing ability of resources (environmental component). In some cases, the model predicts a smooth substitution of renewable for nonrenewable resources, but this process could work in the opposite direction if renewable resources are temporarily beyond their maximum sustainable yield, so that their marginal natural growth is negative. If substitution possibilities are high enough, it may be optimal to suspend the extraction of a resource to allow the biomass to regenerate. A production process is more likely to be sustainable the more heavily it depends on renewable, rather than nonrenewable resources.     

Input strategy analysis for an air quality data modelling procedure at a local scale based on neural network

In recent years, a significant part of the studies on air pollutants has been devoted to improve statistical techniques for forecasting the values of their concentrations in the atmosphere. Reliable predictions of pollutant trends are essential not only for setting up preventive measures able to avoid risks for human health but also for helping stakeholders to take decision about traffic limitations. In this paper, we present an operating procedure, including both pollutant concentration measurements (CO, SO₂, NO₂, O₃, PM10) and meteorological parameters (hourly data of atmospheric pressure, relative humidity, wind speed), which improves the simple use of neural network for the prediction of pollutant concentration trends by means of the integration of multivariate statistical analysis. In particular, we used principal component analysis in order to define an unconstrained mix of variables able to improve the performance of the model. The developed procedure is particularly suitable for characterizing the investigated phenomena at a local scale.     

Electrophysiological and behavioural responses of Aphidius ervi (Hymenoptera: Braconidae) to tomato plant volatiles

Flight responses of the aphid parasitoid Aphidius ervi to tomato volatiles have recently demonstrated that different plant stresses can lead to increases in attractiveness for this parasitoid. For example, infestation of tomato plants by the aphid Macrosiphum euphorbiae results in the overexpression of defensive genes, as well as the release of volatile compounds that attract aphid parasitoids. Here, we determine which of the induced compounds elicit a significant electrophysiological response from parasitoid antennae. Compounds shown to be detected at the antennal level were then tested at a range of doses in a wind tunnel assay. A significant electroantennogram response was demonstrated for three compounds, (8S,9R)-(E)-caryophyllene, methyl salicylate, and (Z)-3-hexen-1-ol, over four concentrations. These compounds proved to be significantly attractive in the wind tunnel at a rate not always proportionally dependent upon the dose. The practical implications of these findings are discussed in the framework of sustainable control for pest aphids in agriculture.     

The role of electromagnetic potentials in the evolutionary dynamics of ecosystems

It is discussed that the electromagnetic potential can cause the emergence of the coherent structures that in view of their coherence, openness and non-linearity, are able to self-organize and form various hierarchical levels of ecosystems. In the meantime the electromagnetic potential is also the physical agent acting as a messenger in these coherent structures. So it plays the task of reducing the number of independent microstates of a coherent system, becoming a candidate for implementing the concept of negentropy. Electromagnetic potential is shown to be essential for the self-organization and the time evolution of ecosystems, providing the mechanism for their non-locality, complexity and self-consistency (self-maintaining).     

Effects of organic fertilizers on soil physicochemistry and on the yield and botanical composition of forage over 3 years

Organic wastes have been reported to reduce saturation of the exchange complex by Al in Al-rich acid soils. For 3 years, the main soil fertility properties were studied in plots sown with mixed pasture species. These plots were fertilized with cattle slurry, dairy sludge (DS), or granulated broiler litter (BL) in comparison with mineral fertilizer. Al saturation levels were low after the initial inorganic liming treatment (19.00-33.71%) but tended to rise under all treatments (21.09-61.37%) except BL (8.45-30.98%), which was also associated with the highest average soil pH and the highest average levels of exchangeable Ca2+, Mg2+, and K+. Treatment DS performed similarly to mineral fertilizer in most respects, but it led to greater available P levels. Under the dry conditions of the second and third years of the study, BL and DS treatments were associated with significantly greater forage yields than the other treatments. Under DS treatment, available P levels were too low to allow the maintenance of mixed pasture, clover being eliminated by the less P-dependent species.     

Human-caused wildfire risk rating for prevention planning in Spain

This paper identifies human factors associated with high forest fire risk in Spain and analyses the spatial distribution of fire occurrence in the country. The spatial units were 6,066 municipalities of the Spanish peninsular territory and Balearic Islands. The study covered a 13-year series of fire occurrence data. One hundred and eight variables were generated and input to a dedicated Geographic Information System (GIS) to model different factors related to fire ignition. After exploratory analysis, 29 were selected to build a predictive model of human fire ignition using logistic regression analysis. The binary model estimated the probability of high or low occurrence of forest fires, as defined by an ignition danger index that is currently used by the Spanish forest service (number of fires divided by forest area in each municipality). Thirteen explanatory variables were identified by the model. They were related to agricultural landscape fragmentation, agricultural abandonment and development processes. The prediction agreement found between the model binary outputs and the historical fire data was 85.3% for the model building dataset (60% of municipalities). A slightly lower predictive power (76.2%) was found for the validation data (the remaining 40%). The probabilistic output of the logistic was significantly related to the raw ignition index (Spearman correlation of 0.710) used by the Spanish Forest Service. Therefore, the model can be considered a good predictor of human-caused fire risk, aiding spatial decisions related to prevention planning in Spanish municipalities.