Prevalence-adjusted optimisation of fuzzy models for species distribution

Most performance criteria which have been applied to train ecological models focus on the accuracy of the model predictions. However, these criteria depend on the prevalence of the training set and often do not take into account ecological issues such as the distinction between omission and commission errors. Moreover, a previous study indicated that model training based on different performance criteria results in different optimised models. Therefore, model developers should train models based on different performance criteria and select the most appropriate model depending on the modelling objective. This paper presents a new approach to train fuzzy models based on an adjustable performance criterion, called the adjusted average deviation (aAD). This criterion was applied to develop a species distribution model for spawning grayling in the Aare River near Thun, Switzerland. To analyse the strengths and weaknesses of this approach, it was compared to model training based on other performance criteria. The results suggest that model training based on accuracy-based performance criteria may produce unrealistic models at extreme prevalences of the training set, whereas the aAD allows for the identification of more accurate and more reliable models. Moreover, the adjustable parameter in this criterion enables modellers to situate the optimised models in the search space and thus provides an indication of the ecological model relevance. Consequently, it may support modellers and river managers in the decision making process by improving model reliability and insight into the modelling process. Due to the universality and the flexibility of the approach, it could be applied to any other ecosystem or species, and may therefore be valuable to ecological modelling and ecosystem management in general.     

Substance flows through the economy and environment of a region

In the tradition of the study of materials flows through society, the Substance Flow Analysis (SFA) method and its software tool SFINX are presented. SFA aims at providing the relevant information for a country’s overall management strategy regarding single substances or coherent groups of substances. Three modelling techniques and their possibilities and limitations are discussed: Bookkeeping, static modelling, and dynamic modelling. The computer program SFINX can be used for varoius purposes: (1) to obtain an overview of stocks and flows of a substance in, out and through a nation’s economy and environment for a specific year, (2) to trace the origins of specific pollution problems, and (3) to estimate the effectiveness of certain abatement measures. Each application has its own requirements with regard to data and modelling.     

Substance flows through the economy and environment of a region

Part I: Abstract  In the tradition of the study of materials flows through society, the Substance Flow Analysis (SFA) method is presented. SFA aims at providing the relevant information for a country’s overall management strategy regarding single substances or coherent groups of substances. This article is dedicated to the presentation of a threestep general framework for SFA-type studies, and elaborates on its first step the systems definition. Attention is given to the definition of the external and internal system boundaries, the categorization of the system’s elements, aspects of materials choice, time, and space, and how these depend on the aim of the conducted study. Moreover, a broader discussion is started on the need for standardization of materials flow studies in general. Part II: Abstract  In the tradition of the study of materials flows through society, the Substance Flow Analysis (SFA) method and its software tool SFINX are presented. SFA aims at providing the relevant information for a country’s overall management strategy regarding single substances or coherent groups of substances. Three modelling techniques and their possibilities and limitations are discussed: Bookkeeping, static modelling, and dynamic modelling. The computer program SFINX can be used for varoius purposes: (1) to obtain an overview of stocks and flows of a substance in, out and through a nation’s economy and environment for a specific year, (2) to trace the origins of specific pollution problems, and (3) to estimate the effectiveness of certain abatement measures. Each application has its own requirements with regard to data and modelling.     

Genetic sub-structure and intermediate optimal outcrossing distance in the marine angiosperm <Emphasis Type="Italic">Zostera marina</Emphasis>

The spatial distribution of genetic variability depends on the spatial patterns of clonal and sexual reproduction, gene flow, genetic drift and natural selection. Species with restricted dispersal may exhibit genetic structuring within populations with immediate neighbours being close relatives, and may show differentiation among populations. Genetic structuring of a species may have important genetic, evolutionary and ecological consequences including distance-dependent mating success. In this study we used microsatellite markers to show that clones of Zostera marina in a population in the Ria Formosa, Portugal, were aggregated and covered distances of up to 3–4 m. Clones within 4 m of each other exhibited significant and positive coancestry values, reflecting the limited seed dispersal of this species. Hand-pollinations between near (0–10.9 m), intermediate (11–32 m) and far (15 km) individuals resulted in similar levels of seed set, although the near pollinations had higher, although not statistically significant, levels of seed abortion during maturation. Seeds from intermediate-distance pollinations had a significantly higher proportion of seeds germinate and shorter germination time than both the near and far seeds. Similarly, the average number of seedlings produced per pollination, used as an overall estimate of fitness, was significantly greater for the intermediate distance when compared to both near and far pollinations. These results suggest that the genetic structuring observed may result in both inbreeding and outbreeding depression, which gives rise to an intermediate optimal outcrossing distance.     

Attitudes to nuclear energy: Beliefs,values and false consensus

Attitudinal differences regarding the use of nuclear energy were investigated. Results obtained in a random sample drawn from the population of four communities in The Netherlands within 30 miles of a nuclear power plant showed a strong relationship between subjects' attitudes towards nuclear energy and their perceptions of the possible consequences of nuclear energy. ‘Pro’- and ‘con’-subjects showed marked differences in the importance attached to the different possible consequences and their endorsement of the salience of more general social issues. Results provide support for the view that individuals perceive a false consensus with respect to the relative prevalence of similar attitudes among other people. Finally, subjects' perceptions of others with similar or opposing attitudes towards the issue of nuclear energy showed marked differences in evaluation especially for the extreme attitude groups.     

Predominance of alcohol and illicit drugs among traffic accidents fatalities in an urban area of Brazil

Objective: The objective of this study was to determine the prevalence of alcohol and illicit drug use among victims of fatal traffic accidents in the Metropolitan Region of Vitória, Brazil, during the period 2011–2012.

Methods: Blood samples were collected and analyzed for the presence of drugs from 391 deceased victims of traffic crashes that occurred in the Metropolitan Region of Vitória, Brazil. The victims included drivers, passengers, and pedestrians. Sociodemographic variables such as age, gender, day of the week, and period of the year in which the accidents occurred were recorded. The analyses were performed by a gas chromatography–flame ionization method for alcohol and by a gas chromatography–mass spectrometry for amphetamines, cocaine, and cannabis.

Results: The results showed that 44.8% (n = 175) of all cases were positive for alcohol and/or illicit drugs. The detection of alcohol and/or drugs was more frequent in young males, aged 17 to 34, whose samples were positive in 46.8% of cases. Small differences among drivers, passengers, and pedestrians were observed (drivers = 45.9%, passengers = 46.4%, and pedestrians = 45.6%). In general, the most prevalent drug was alcohol, with 141 positive cases (36.1%), followed by cocaine, with 47 positive cases (12%). Amphetamines and cannabis had positivity rates of 4.1 and 4.3%, with 16 and 17 positive cases, respectively. The combined use of alcohol and other drugs was found in 36 cases (9.2%). Crack cocaine use was observed in 27.7% of the positive cases for cocaine.

Conclusions: For the effective reduction of traffic accidents related to driving under influence of drugs (DUID), we suggest the intensification of enforcement actions against the use of alcohol by drivers, the definition of which illicit drugs should be surveyed, as well the cutoff values, the promotion of changing legislation to oblige drivers to provide samples for toxicological testing, and the establishment of public information programs and specific actions aimed at young drivers to promote behavioral changes.     

Adjustment of female reproductive investment according to male carotenoid-based ornamentation in a gallinaceous bird

Carotenoid-based ornaments (many yellow–orange–red colourations) may signal the genetic or parental quality of the bearer. Thus, their expression could influence the amount of resources/energy that the mate will invest in the production of offspring, thereby optimising its reproductive fitness. The differential allocation hypothesis (DAH) predicts that females mated with more attractive males should lay more and better eggs. This has been explored only in few bird species with carotenoid-based traits. We tested this hypothesis in the red-legged partridge (Alectoris rufa), a gallinacean with very variable laying capacity. Both sexes display carotenoid-based ornamentation that gradually fades throughout the laying period. Here, the redness of beak and eye rings of captive males was intensified after mating by means of paint. The proportion of females that laid eggs did not differ between treatments. Amongst laying females, those mated with colour-enhanced males (experimental females) tended to lay earlier and produced significantly more eggs than controls, but of similar quality (egg mass and composition). We additionally investigated whether male attractiveness influenced egg components depending on the clutch size and laying sequence. The testosterone level in eggs from experimental females was positively related to the laying order, whereas control eggs did not show any trend. Our results provided mixed support for the DAH, but nevertheless revealed that female red-legged partridges may adjust their breeding investment according to male carotenoid-based ornamentation.     

Biodegradation of chlorsulfuron and metsulfuron-methyl by Aspergillus niger in laboratory conditions

Two sulfonylurea herbicides, chlorsulfuron and metsulfuron-methyl, were studied under laboratory conditions, in order to elucidate the biodegradation pathway operated by Aspergillus niger, a common soil fungus, which is often involved in the degradation of xenobiotics. HPLC-UV was used to study the kinetic of degradation, whereas LC-MS was used to identify the metabolites structure. In order to avoid the chemical degradation induced by a decrease in pH, due to the production of citric acid by the fungus, the experiments were performed in a buffered neutral medium. No significant degradation for both compounds was observed in mineral medium with 0.2% sodium acetate. On the contrary, in a rich medium, after 28 days the degradations, chemical degradation excluded, were about 30% for chlorsulfuron and 33% for metsulfuron-methyl. The main microbial metabolites were obtained via cleavage of the sulfonylurea bridge. In addition the fungus seems to be able to hydroxylate the aromatic ring of chlorsulfuron. In the case of metsulfuron-methyl the only detected metabolite was the triazine derivative, while the aromatic portion was completely degraded. Finally, the demethylation of the methoxy group on the triazine ring, previously observed with a Pseudomonas fluorescens strain, was not observed with A. niger.     

Using SFA indicators to support environmental policy

In order to improve the link from Substance Flow Analysis (SFA) studies to environmental policy, a translation is made from the SFA overview of flows and stocks into a limited set of indicators. This set is designed to evaluate a region’s substance regime with regard to environmental quality and sustainable development, including problem shifting in time and space.