Forward selection of explanatory variables

This paper proposes a new way of using forward selection of explanatory variables in regression or canonical redundancy analysis. The classical forward selection method presents two problems: a highly inflated Type I error and an overestimation of the amount of explained variance. Correcting these problems will greatly improve the performance of this very useful method in ecological modeling. To prevent the first problem, we propose a two-step procedure. First, a global test using all explanatory variables is carried out. If, and only if, the global test is significant, one can proceed with forward selection. To prevent overestimation of the explained variance, the forward selection has to be carried out with two stopping criteria: (1) the usual alpha significance level and (2) the adjusted coefficient of multiple determination (Ra(2)) calculated using all explanatory variables. When forward selection identifies a variable that brings one or the other criterion over the fixed threshold, that variable is rejected, and the procedure is stopped. This improved method is validated by simulations involving univariate and multivariate response data. An ecological example is presented using data from the Bryce Canyon National Park, Utah, U.S.A.     

Is spread of invasive species regulated? Using ecological theory to interpret statistical analysis

We investigate a recent proposal that invasive species display patterns of spatial "spread regulation" analogous to density-dependent regulation of population abundances. While invasive species do offer valuable tests of ecological theories about spatial spread, we argue that the statistical approach used in the study is not useful, and that the proposed definition of "spread regulation" is likely to be confusing. While concepts of negative feedbacks in spatial spread may be reasonable, the proposed definition of "spread regulation" encompasses accelerating, constant, or decelerating spread. There is no compelling biological or practical reason to adopt such a definition. Moreover, we show that the statistical patterns (from time series of ratios of newly to recently invaded sites) proposed as evidence of spread regulation are predictable from basic diffusion models or other common models of constant spread with some stochasticity in dynamics and/or observations. Because such a wide range of processes would generate the observed patterns, no clear biological conclusions emerge from the proposed approach to spread analysis. When regarded in the context of the impacts and management of invasive species, the proposed regulation concept has the potential to create costly misunderstandings.     

Wassertechnische Strategien zur Reduzierung der Trinkwasserbelastung durch Arzneimittelwirkstoffe

Results The available research results concerning the application of innovative methods of wastewater and drinking water purification to eliminate pharmaceuticals are summarized in the present paper. An increase of the activated sludge (aerobic sludge) age to 8–10 days in treatment plants can improve the metabolization of less persistent pharmaceutical agents whereas expansion of the sojourn time beyond 10 days will not result in a remarked increase of degradation for most pharmaceutical substances. First results have shown that wastewater treatment plants with integrated membrane bioreactors (MBR) using micro- and ultrafiltration membranes do not provide significantly better results compared to the conventional wastewater treatment plants with respect to the removal of organic micropollutants (including pharmaceutical residues). The use of powdered carbon in biologically treated wastewater is able to reduce pharmaceutical residues up to 80?% in the run-off water. Pilot studies scrutinize the treatment of highly contaminated effluents via catalytic photooxidation. Regarding the suitability of the method to reduce the contamination of drinking and wastewater with pharmaceuticals yet only few data from laboratory scale testing are available. Activated carbon filtration is preferably used for drinking water treatment. Primarily against the background of disinfection, ozonation is widely used for drinking water treatment, but for wastewater treatment the method is still at the experimental stage and will hardly become of practical importance because of high costs. Sustainable wastewater separation is grounded on decentralized concepts by considering material cycles (recycling) at the place of origin. In the long term, separation measures can significantly contribute to declining drug concentrations in drinking water. Regarding the quarrying of drinking water by bank filtration water, river water or artificially enriched ground water, end-of-pipe techniques are vital. Most commonly, activated carbon or activated carbon combined with ozonization is applied and assures a high drinking water quality. Discussion The advantages and disadvantages of the different water treatment methods mainly concern the varying degrees of effectiveness with respect to the elimination of very persistent pharmaceutical agents, the generation of problematical metabolites and additional waste materials, hygienic problems, energy needs and the necessity to employ appropriate technical staff for operation. Although the biodegradation of very persistent drugs cannot be enhanced by an extension of the activated sludge age, this modification should be considered in sewage plants to reduce the contamination with less persistent medical agents. Compared with conventional wastewater treatment, membrane bioreactors provide the advantage of a better control of biological activities on the plant and a comparably small plant size but high investment and operation costs. Additionally, pharmaceuticals such as carbamazepin are only insufficiently removed from wastewater by membrane bioreactors. The regular use of powdered activated carbon in sewage treatment plants would also increase the costs of wastewater treatment and would additionally exclude the further use of sewage sludge in agriculture. Currently, in Germany the further use of sewage sludge is handled differently by the Federal States and discussed controversially. The implementation of ozonation as an additional treatment method in wastewater treatment plants is not realistic because of cost concerns. Additionally, the method produces analytically as yet not assessed metabolites with unknown (eco-)toxicological impacts. For this reason ozonation should currently not be applied unless the reaction products are removed subsequently by filtration through activated carbon. For industrial sewage photooxidation is in a state of testing but an application for municipal wastewater is, up to now, out of question. When river bank filtration is used for the supply of drinking water the use of activated carbon for purification should be essential. The lifetime of the filters is often defined by the filter capacities to eliminate radiocontrast media (e.?g., iopamidole, amidotrizoic acid). Many water supply companies already apply the ozonization prior to activated carbon filtration which supports the elimination of pharmaceuticals from the sewage. The unique developmental potential of the wastewater separation can be seen in the possibility to link up these methods with sustainable exploitation techniques and concepts (re-use of sanitized water, production of fertilizer, compost and biogas). Wastewater separation will not make ‘middle/end-of-pipe’ techniques dispensable but will make their handling more effective because concentrations of pharmaceutical agents are higher in separated effluents compared to those usually found in municipal wastewater, which in mixing sewage systems is even diluted by surface runoff. Conclusions Following today’s state of knowledge activated carbon filtration (eventually coupled with ozonization) is best suited to remove drug residues and other xenobiotics from raw water. Water works that do not apply the activated carbon filtration technique for cleanup of bank filtration water should consider an upgrade. The ozonization is primarily required for disinfection of the water. As no acute health hazard proceeds from drinking water contamination by pharmaceuticals at the present time, the upgrade of wastewater treatment plants by one of the aforementioned innovative methods is currently not required in view of drinking water quality. This offers the opportunity to develop sustainable approaches that already aim to reduce drug contaminations of wastewater and hence of ground-, surface- and drinking water. Recommendations and perspectives On a short- to mid-term perspective enriched sewage of hospitals, nursing homes and other medical facilities should be collected and treated separately. From a technical point of view the conditioning of separated hospital effluents (yellow- and greywater) via activated carbon or membrane filtration is possible but should be combined with disinfection. On a mid- and long-term scale sustainable sanitary concepts based on wastewater separation (black-, grey- and/or rainwater) associated with the recycling of mineral nutrients (nitrogen, phosphorous and potassium) should be realized for development, industry and trade areas, buildings with public lavatories, airports, motorway service areas, and large office and hotel buildings. Strategies focusing primarily on up-grading of municipal wastewater treatment plants are currently existing but the related technologies are largely in a test phase. This is why a particular technique should not be favored at the moment. The combination of various techniques (i.?e., ozonization combined with activated carbon filtration) is known to be very efficient for the removal of pharmaceutical residues from water, but the combination cannot be expected to become of importance in treatment of domestic wastewater because of high costs. Moreover, improvement of wastewater treatment technologies to remove pharmaceutical residues will not make the employment of end-of-pipe techniques in water works redundant and therefore will not lead to saving of expenses.     

Optimal biomass allocation in heterogeneous environments in a clonal plant—Spatial division of labor

When interconnected ramets of clonal plants are growing in heterogeneous environments, ramets may specialize to uptake locally abundant resources rather than scarce resources. This biomass allocation pattern may result in more efficient sharing of resources through physiological integration and an overall benefit to the plants (spatial division of labor; DoL).     

A risk-based screening approach for prioritizing contaminants and exposure pathways at Superfund sites

Contamination at Superfund sites can involve mixtures of chemicals and radionuclides in a variety of environmental media. Determining priorities for evaluation and remediation of various contaminants is an important part of the initial phases of any site investigation. An effective screening analysis at the beginning of the project can help by identifying both those situations in need of immediate remedial attention and those which require further sampling and evaluation. The screening approach discussed here is made up of two sets of calculations designed to provide upper- and lower-bound estimates of health risk to individuals likely to receive the highest exposures. This approach allows rapid identification of contaminants which pose a negligible risk and can be assigned a low priority for remedial attention or which pose a substantial risk and should be given the highest priority for appropriate remediation efforts. Contaminants designated as neither high- nor low-priority should be investigated in more detail prior to making decisions regarding the need for or method of remediation. The utility of this approach has already been demonstrated in the evaluation of contamination in the Clinch and Tennessee River systems originating from historical operations of atomic weapons and energy research facilities near Oak Ridge, Tennessee.     

Importance of eating habits and sample size in the estimation of environmental mercury contamination using biological indicators

The importance of eating habits and the number of fish sampled in the estimation of mercury environmental contamination through biological indicators was studied. The species used were one with piscivorous habits (Anguilla anguilla) and another with omnivorous habits (Ciprinus carpio). From one original sample for each species, randomized samples were generated using the subroutine GGSRS from the mathematics library IMSL, and later the statistical significance of Pearson's correlation coefficient for the relationship between fish weight and mercury concentrations in muscle was obtained for each random sample. The results show that the use of omnivorous species such as Ciprinus carpio as a biological indicator of contamination enables us to carry out estimations with a greater degree of confidence than when piscivorous species such as Anguilla anguilla are used.     

Patchy distributions: Optimising sample size

A method for estimating sample size which does not require an a priori definition of desired precision, or the assumption that the population is normally distributed with constant variance, has recently been proposed. This paper discusses this method and presents five modifications which make the method easier to use and reduce the probability of estimating a larger sample size than is actually required. The method is extended and used to estimate the mean abundance of patchily distributed benthic organisms. The technique can be used to guide the design of any environmental sampling programme, be it physical, chemical or biological, where comparisons between times and/or locations are required. Trade-offs between numbers of replicates and numbers of levels/sites are discussed.     

Effectiveness of Panama as an intercontinental land bridge for large mammals

Habitat fragmentation is a primary driver of wildlife loss, and establishment of biological corridors is a common strategy to mitigate this problem. A flagship example is the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor (MBC), which aims to connect protected forest areas between Mexico and Panama to allow dispersal and gene flow of forest organisms. Because forests across Central America have continued to degrade, the functioning of the MBC has been questioned, but reliable estimates of species occurrence were unavailable. Large mammals are suitable indicators of forest functioning, so we assessed their conservation status across the Isthmus of Panama, the narrowest section of the MBC. We used large-scale camera-trap surveys and hierarchical multispecies occupancy models in a Bayesian framework to estimate the occupancy of 9 medium to large mammals and developed an occupancy-weighted connectivity metric to evaluate species-specific functional connectivity. White-lipped peccary (Tayassu pecari), jaguar (Panthera onca), giant anteater (Myrmecophaga tridactyla), white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), and tapir (Tapirus bairdii) had low expected occupancy along the MBC in Panama. Puma (Puma concolor), red brocket deer (Mazama temama), ocelot (Leopardus pardalis), and collared peccary (Pecari tajacu), which are more adaptable, had higher occupancy, even in areas with low forest cover near infrastructure. However, the majority of species were subject to ≥1 gap that was larger than their known dispersal distances, suggesting poor connectivity along the MBC in Panama. Based on our results, forests in Darien, Donoso–Santa Fe, and La Amistad International Park are critical for survival of large terrestrial mammals in Panama and 2 areas need restoration.     

A climate-change vulnerability and adaptation assessment for Brazil's protected areas

Brazil hosts the largest expanse of tropical ecosystems within protected areas (PAs), which shelter biodiversity and support traditional human populations. We assessed the vulnerability to climate change of 993 terrestrial and coastal-marine Brazilian PAs by combining indicators of climatic-change hazard with indicators of PA resilience (size, native vegetation cover, and probability of climate-driven vegetation transition). This combination of indicators allows the identification of broad climate-change adaptation pathways. Seventeen PAs (20,611 km²) were highly vulnerable and located mainly in the Atlantic Forest (7 PAs), Cerrado (6), and the Amazon (4). Two hundred fifty-eight PAs (756,569 km²), located primarily in Amazonia, had a medium vulnerability. In the Amazon and western Cerrado, the projected severe climatic change and probability of climate-driven vegetation transition drove vulnerability up, despite the generally good conservation status of PAs. Over 80% of PAs of high or moderate vulnerability are managed by indigenous populations. Hence, besides the potential risks to biodiversity, the traditional knowledge and livelihoods of the people inhabiting these PAs may be threatened. In at least 870 PAs, primarily in the Atlantic Forest and Amazon, adaptation could happen with little or no intervention due to low climate-change hazard, high resilience status, or both. At least 20 PAs in the Atlantic Forest, Cerrado, and Amazonia should be targeted for stronger interventions (e.g., improvement of ecological connectivity), given their low resilience status. Despite being a first attempt to link vulnerability and adaptation in Brazilian PAs, we suggest that some of the PAs identified as highly or moderately vulnerable should be prioritized for testing potential adaptation strategies in the near future.     

Urban wild meat consumption and trade in central Amazonia

The switch from hunting wild meat for home consumption to supplying more lucrative city markets in Amazonia can adversely affect some game species. Despite this, information on the amounts of wild meat eaten in Amazonian cities is still limited. We estimated wild meat consumption rates in 5 cities in the State of Amazonas in Brazil through 1046 door-to-door household interviews conducted from 2004 to 2012. With these data, we modeled the relationship between wild meat use and a selection of socioeconomic indices. We then scaled up our model to determine the amounts of wild meat likely to be consumed annually in the 62 urban centers in central Amazonia. A total of 80.3% of all interviewees reported consuming wild meat during an average of 29.3 (CI 11.6) days per year. Most wild meat was reported as bought in local markets (80.1%) or hunted by a family member (14.9%). Twenty-one taxa were cited as consumed, mostly mammals (71.6%), followed by reptiles (23.2%) and then birds (5.2%). The declared frequency of wild meat consumption was positively correlated with the proportion of rural population as well as with the per capita gross domestic product of the municipality (administrative divisions) where the cities were seated. We estimated that as much as 10,691 t of wild meat might be consumed annually in the 62 urban centers within central Amazonia, the equivalent of 6.49 kg per person per year. In monetary terms, this amounts to US$21.72 per person per year or US$35.1 million overall, the latter figure is comparable to fish and timber production in the region. Given this magnitude of wild meat trade in central Amazonia, it is fundamental to integrate this activity into the formal economy and actively develop policies that allow the trade of more resilient taxa and restrict trade in species sensitive to hunting.