The reliability of experts' opinions in constructing a composite environmental index: The case of ESI 2005

The complexity of the environment demands a well-constructed composite environmental index (CEI) to provide a useful tool to draw attention to environmental conditions and trends for policy purposes. Among the common difficulties in constructing a proper CEI are uncertainties due to the selection of the most representative underlying variables or indicators. A degree of uncertainty accompanies experts' judgments, and to deal with vague, subjective or inconsistent information, logic other than classic is required. This study analyzes a procedure that uses different experts' opinions in constructing a CEI, with the use of paraconsistent annotated logic. For this, a sensitivity analysis of the Environmental Sustainability Index (ESI 2005) was used as an example to assess the reliability of experts' opinions. The uncertainty due to the disagreement in experts' opinions clearly indicates that the forms we presently use to measure and monitor the actual environment are insufficient, that is, there is a lack of a “science of sustainability”.     

How good is GLASOD?

The Global Assessment of Soil Degradation (GLASOD) has been the most influential global appraisal of land quality in terms of environmental policy. However, its expert judgments were never tested for their consistency and could not be reproduced at unvisited sites, while the relationship between the GLASOD assessments of land degradation and the social and economic impact of that degradation remains unclear. Yet, other methodologies that could respond to urgent calls for an updated assessment of the global environmental quality are not operational or, at best, in progress. Therefore, we evaluate the reliability and social relevance of the GLASOD approach and assess its candidacy for new global environmental assessments. The study concentrates on the African continent, capitalizing on new GIS data to delineate and define the characteristics of GLASOD map units. Consistency is tested by comparing expert judgments on soil degradation hazard for similar combinations of biophysical conditions and land use. Reproducibility is evaluated by estimating an ordered logit model that relates the qualitative land degradation classes to easily available information on explanatory variables, the results of which can be used to assess the land degradation at unvisited sites. Finally, a cross-sectional analysis investigates the relation between GLASOD assessments and crop production data at sub-national scale and its association with the prevalence of malnutrition. The GLASOD assessments prove to be only moderately consistent and hardly reproducible, while the counter-intuitive trend with crop production reveals the complexity of the production-degradation relationship. It appears that increasing prevalence of malnutrition coincides with poor agro-productive conditions and highly degraded land. The GLASOD approach can be improved by resolving the differences in conceptualization among experts and by defining the boundaries of the ordered classes in the same units as independent, quantitative land degradation data.     

Production of lightweight aggregates from mining and industrial wastes

Washing aggregate sludge from a gravel pit, sewage sludge from a wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) and a clay-rich sediment have been physically, chemically and mineralogically characterized. They were mixed, milled and formed into pellets, pre-heated for 5 min and sintered in a rotary kiln at 1150 °C, 1175 °C, 1200 °C and 1225 °C for 10 and 15 min at each temperature. The effects of the raw material characteristics, heating temperatures and dwell times on the loss on ignition (LOI), bloating index (BI), bulk density (ρ_b), apparent and dry particle densities (ρ_a, ρ_d), voids (H), water absorption (WA_24h) and compressive strength (S) were determined. All the mixtures presented a bloating potential taking into consideration the gases released at high temperatures. The products obtained were lightweight aggregates (LWAs) in accordance with Standard UNE-EN-13055-1 (ρ_b ≤ 1.20 g/cm³ or particle density ≤ 2.00 g/cm³). LWAs manufactured with 50% washing aggregate sludge and 50% clay-rich sediment were expanded LWAs (BI > 0) and showed the lowest apparent particle density, the lowest water absorption and the highest compressive strength. It was possible to establish three groups of LWAs on the basis of their properties in comparison to Arlita G3, F3 and F5, commercially available lightweight aggregates manufactured in Spain. Our LWAs may have the same or similar applications as these commercial products, such as horticulture, prefabricated lightweight structures and building structures.     

Protected Area Safeguard Tree and Shrub Communities from Degradation and Invasion: A Case Study in Eastern Madagascar

Despite their prevalence in both developed and developing countries, there have been surprisingly few field assessments of the ecological effectiveness of protected areas. This study aimed to assess the effectiveness of a key protected area in eastern Madagascar, Ranomafana National Park (RNP). We established paired 100 × 4-m vegetation transects (400 m²) within RNP and in remnant forests in the park’s peripheral zone. In each 400-m² plot, all woody stems >1.5 cm in diameter at breast height were measured and identified to species. All species were also identified as native or non-native. We identified utilitarian species within all transects and they were sorted into use category. We calculated plot-level taxonomic biodiversity and functional diversity of utilitarian species; the latter was calculated by clustering the multivariate distances between species based on their utilitarian traits, and all metrics were tested using paired t-tests. Our results showed that there was significantly higher biodiversity inside RNP than in remnant forests and this pattern was consistent across all diversity metrics examined. Forests not located within the park’s boundary had significantly higher non-native species than within RNP. There was no statistically significant difference in functional diversity of utilitarian species inside RNP vs. remnant forests; however, the overall trend was toward higher diversity inside park boundaries. These findings suggested that RNP has been effective at maintaining taxonomic diversity relative to surrounding unprotected areas and restricting the spread of non-native plants. The results also suggested that low functional redundancy of forests outside of RNP might be of concern, because residents in surrounding villages may have few other substitutes for the services provided by species that are of critical importance to their livelihoods. This study highlights the challenges of trying to reconcile biodiversity conservation with human use of natural resources in economically poor, remote areas.     

Accumulation of anthropogenic radionuclides in cryoconites on Alpine glaciers

Cryoconites are airborne sediments which accumulate on the surface of glaciers. In samples of cryoconites a temperate Austrian glacier high activity concentrations of anthropogenic radionuclides were found, which stem from global and Chernobyl fallouts. Radionuclides identified were ¹³⁷Cs, ¹³⁴Cs, ²³⁸Pu, ^239+240Pu, ⁹⁰Sr, ²⁴¹Am, ⁶⁰Co, ¹⁵⁴Eu, ²⁰⁷Bi, and ¹²⁵Sb.     

Radionuclide transfer to animal products: revised recommended transfer coefficient values

A compilation has been undertaken of data which can be used to derive animal product transfer coefficients for radionuclides, including an extensive review of Russian language information. The resultant database has been used to provide recommended transfer coefficient values for a range of radionuclides to (i) cow, sheep and goat milk, (ii) meat (muscle) of cattle, sheep, goats, pigs and poultry and (iii) eggs. The values are used in a new IAEA handbook on transfer parameters which replaces that referred to as ‘TRS 364’. The paper outlines the approaches and procedures used to identify and collate data, and assumptions used. There are notable differences between the TRS 364 ‘expected’ values and the recommended values in the revised Handbook from the new database. Of the recommended values, three milk values are at least an order of magnitude higher than the TRS 364 values (Cr, Pu (cow) Pu (sheep)) and one milk value is lower (Ni (cow)). For meat, four values (Am, Cd, Sb (beef) I (pork)) are at least an order of magnitude higher than the TRS 364 values and eight values are at least an order of magnitude lower (Ru, Pu (beef), Ru, Sr, Zn (sheep), Ru, Sr (pork), Mn (poultry)). Many data gaps remain.     

Comparison of manufactured and black carbon nanoparticle concentrations in aquatic sediments

In this paper, we show that concentrations of manufactured carbon-based nanoparticles (MCNPs) in aquatic sediments will be negligible compared to levels of black carbon nanoparticles (BCNPs). This is concluded from model calculations accounting for MCNP sedimentation fluxes, removal rates due to aggregation or degradation, and MCNP burial in deeper sediment layers. The resultant steady state MCNP levels are compared with BCNP levels calculated from soot levels in sediments and weight fractions of nanosized fractions of these soot particles. MCNP/BCNP ratios range from 10⁻⁷ to 10⁻⁴ (w:w). This suggests that the often acclaimed effect of MCNPs on organic pollutant binding and bioavailability will likely be below the level of detection if natural BCNPs are present, even if binding to MCNP is one to two orders of magnitude stronger than to BCNPs. Furthermore, exposure and toxic effects of MCNPs in sediments and soils will be negligible compared to that of BCNPs.     

Use of a food web model to evaluate the factors responsible for high PCB fish concentrations in Lake Ellasjøen, a high Arctic Lake

Background, aim, and scope

Lake Ellasjøen, located in the Norwegian high arctic, contains the highest concentrations of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) ever recorded in fish and sediment from high arctic lakes, and concentrations are more than 10 times greater than in nearby Lake Øyangen. These elevated concentrations in Ellasjøen have been previously attributed, in part, to contaminant loadings from seabirds that use Ellasjøen, but not Øyangen, as a resting area. However, other factors, such as food web structure, organism growth rate, weight, lipid content, lake morphology, and nutrient inputs from the seabird guano, also differ between the two systems. The aim of this study is to evaluate the relative influence of these factors as explanatory variables for the higher PCB fish concentrations in Ellasjøen compared with Øyangen, using both a food web model and empirical data.

Methods

The model is based on previously developed models but parameterized for Lakes Ellasjøen and Øyangen using measured data wherever possible. The model was applied to five representative PCB congeners (PCB 105, 118, 138, 153, and 180) using measured sediment and water concentrations as input data and evaluated with previously collected food web data.

Results

Modeled concentrations are within a factor of two of measured concentrations in 60% and 40% of the cases in Lakes Ellasjøen and Øyangen, respectively, and within a factor of 10 in 100% of the cases in both lakes. In many cases, this is comparable to the variability associated with the data as well as the efficacy of the predictions of other food web model applications.

Discussion

We next used the model to quantify the relative importance of five major differences between Ellasjøen and Øyangen by replacing variables representing each of these factors in the Ellasjøen model with those from Øyangen, in separate simulations. The model predicts that the elevated PCB concentrations in Ellasjøen water and sediment account for 49%–58% of differences in modeled fish PCB concentrations between lakes. These elevated sediment and, to a lesser extent, water concentrations in Ellasjøen are due to PCB loadings from seabird guano. However, sediment–water fugacity ratios of PCBs are consistently greater in Ellasjøen compared with Øyangen, which suggests that internal lake processes also contribute to differences in sediment and water concentrations. We hypothesize that the nutrients associated with guano influence sediment–water fugacity ratios of PCBs by increasing the stock of pelagic algae. As both these algae and the guano settle, their organic carbon content is degraded faster than PCBs, which causes an extra magnification step in Ellasjøen before these detrital particles are consumed by benthic organisms, which are in turn consumed by fish. The model predicts that the remaining ～50% of the differences in PCB concentrations observed between the fish of these lakes are due to other subtle differences in their food web structures.

Conclusions

In conclusion, based on the results of a food web model, we found that the most dominant factors influencing the higher PCB fish concentrations in Lake Ellasjøen compared with Øyangen are the higher sediment and water concentrations in Ellasjøen, caused by seabird guano. Together, sediment and water are predicted to account for 49%–58% of differences in fish concentrations between lakes. Although seabird guano provides a source of nutrients to the lake, in addition to contaminants, empirical data and indirect model results suggest that nutrients are not leading to decreased bioaccumulation, in contrast to what has been observed in temperate, pelagic food webs.

Recommendations and perspectives

The results of this study emphasize the importance of considering even small differences in food web structure when comparing bioaccumulation in two lakes; although the food web structures of Ellasjøen and Øyangen differ only slightly, the model predicts that these differences account for most of the remaining ～50% of the differences in PCB fish concentrations between the two lakes. This study further demonstrates the utility of food web models as we were able to predict and tease apart the influence of various factors responsible for the elevated concentrations in the fish from Lake Ellasjøen, which would have been difficult using the field data alone.