Treatment of uncertainty and developing conceptual models for environmental risk assessments and radioactive waste disposal safety cases

The common approach to performing quantitative risk assessments in the contaminated land industry in the UK lacks a formal methodology for the treatment of the full range of uncertainties and for documenting decisions regarding the development of conceptual models and the selection of computer codes. The approach presented here represents an alternative, more detailed, and systematic approach for developing conceptual models and addressing uncertainties when undertaking contaminated land risk assessments. It is intended that the advantages of this approach are recognised by practitioners in the contaminated land industry and adopted, where appropriate, to help improve the quality of contaminated land risk assessments. The identification of features, events, and processes (FEPs) has been applied to safety assessments of deep geological and near-surface disposal of radioactive wastes. One of the primary benefits of using this approach is in the development of conceptual models. The approach identifies the FEPs that need to be addressed during the development of conceptual models and in the selection of suitable computer codes that can be used to represent the conceptual models. This approach has been applied by BNFL at the low-level radioactive waste disposal site at Drigg in Cumbria and is currently being adopted for a contaminated land study at the Sellafield site, also in Cumbria. This paper presents the advantages of using FEPs in the development of conceptual models and the treatment of uncertainties. The paper also discusses the application of this approach to contaminated land studies and provides an example to demonstrate the application of the approach. BNFL's approach at the Drigg site involves the identification of components (features) and phenomena (events and processes) that govern interactions and dependencies between the components by arranging them in a matrix format.     

An ozone budget for the UK: using measurements from the national ozone monitoring network; measured and modelled meteorological data,and a 'big-leaf' resistance analogy model of dry deposition

Data from the UK national air-quality monitoring network are used to calculate an annual mass budget for ozone (O3) production and loss in the UK boundary layer during 1996. Monthly losses by dry deposition are quantified from 1 km x 1 km scale maps of O(3) concentration and O(3) deposition velocities based on a big-leaf resistance analogy. The quantity of O(3) deposition varies from approximately 50 Gg-O(3) month(-1) in the winter to over 200 Gg-O(3) month(-1) in the summer when vegetation is actively absorbing O(3). The net O(3) production or loss in the UK boundary layer is found by selecting days when the UK is receiving "clean" Atlantic air from the SW to NW. In these conditions, the difference in O(3) concentration observed at Mace Head and a rural site on the east coast of the UK indicates the net O(3) production or loss within the UK boundary layer. A simple box model is then used to convert the concentration difference into a mass. The final budget shows that for most of the year the UK is a net sink for O(3) (-25 to -800 Gg-O(3) month(-1)) with production only exceeding losses in the photochemically active summer months (+45 Gg-O(3) month(-1)).     

大气腐蚀试验标准中相对湿度和温度控制的考虑

<正>在本文中,我们将讨论操作腐蚀试验箱的实验室工程师和研究员提出的众多问题:如何测量和控制这些试验箱中的相对湿度和温度。腐蚀试验标准中对相对湿度测量和控制的描述不具体,甚至某些时候是错误的,导致试验者产生了很大的困惑。设备制造商已经使用了各种各样的测量技术,每种测量技术代表对标准的一种合理解释,但是它们相互之间产生的结果不尽相同。除了这些困惑外,对相对湿度控制的需求和人们所期望的现代测试标准同样不明确。最后,实验室条件     

Deposition monitoring networks: what monitoring is required to give reasonable estimates of ammonia/ammonium?

Deposition is one of the main loss terms for ammonia and ammonium from the atmosphere. It is also the input for ecosystems that can lead to drastic changes and effects. Deposition networks are needed to evaluate the need and the effect of policies to reduce nitrogen emissions, but also for studying deposition parameters and for developing deposition models. As with ambient concentrations of ammonia, deposition, especially dry deposition, varies strongly in space and in time. Furthermore, the bi-directional surface-atmosphere exchange of ammonia makes the combination of ambient concentration measurements with inferential models inadequate. Developing deposition monitoring networks with reasonable accuracy and representativeness is therefore not straightforward. In Europe several projects have addressed deposition monitoring. From these results it is concluded that a monitoring strategy should consist of a network with a limited amount of super sites combined with a larger number of sites where low cost methods are applied, together with models for generalisation.     

Polonium-210 in euphausiids: A detailed study

A detailed study of ²¹⁰Po, the predominant alpha-emitting nuclide found in most marine organisms, has been undertaken in a particular zooplanktonic species, the euphausiid Meganyctiphanes norvegica. The purpose was to obtain information concerning the origin, the localization and the flux of the nuclide in and through this organism. Measurements of ²¹⁰Po were made in euphausiids of different sizes, in dissected organs and tissues, and in excretion products. The results show higher concentrations in the smaller specimens; this fact cannot be explained on the basis of surface adsorption, but is probably related to the ingestion of food. Dissection results show that the distribution of ²¹⁰Po in euphausiids is not homogeneous, but that the majority is concentrated in the internal organs, the alimentary tract and the hepatopancreas in particular. The natural radiation dose received by these organs is in consequence much higher than that received by the whole animal. Use of a dynamic model allowed the flux of ²¹⁰Po through M. norvegica to be calculated. The calculations confirm that food is the principal source of ²¹⁰Po for this species, and clearly show that fecal pellets constitute the major elimination route. Extrapolation of the data to zooplankton in general leads to the conclusion that zooplankton metabolic activity plays an important role in transporting ²¹⁰Po from the surface layers of the ocean to depth.     

Atmospheric composition change: Climate–Chemistry interactions

Chemically active climate compounds are either primary compounds like methane (CH₄), removed by oxidation in the atmosphere, or secondary compounds like ozone (O₃), sulfate and organic aerosols, both formed and removed in the atmosphere. Man-induced climate–chemistry interaction is a two-way process: Emissions of pollutants change the atmospheric composition contributing to climate change through the aforementioned climate components, and climate change, through changes in temperature, dynamics, the hydrological cycle, atmospheric stability, and biosphere-atmosphere interactions, affects the atmospheric composition and oxidation processes in the troposphere. Here we present progress in our understanding of processes of importance for climate–chemistry interactions, and their contributions to changes in atmospheric composition and climate forcing. A key factor is the oxidation potential involving compounds like O₃ and the hydroxyl radical (OH). Reported studies represent both current and future changes. Reported results include new estimates of radiative forcing based on extensive model studies of chemically active climate compounds like O₃, and of particles inducing both direct and indirect effects. Through EU projects like ACCENT, QUANTIFY, and the AeroCom project, extensive studies on regional and sector-wise differences in the impact on atmospheric distribution are performed. Studies have shown that land-based emissions have a different effect on climate than ship and aircraft emissions, and different measures are needed to reduce the climate impact. Several areas where climate change can affect the tropospheric oxidation process and the chemical composition are identified. This can take place through enhanced stratospheric–tropospheric exchange of ozone, more frequent periods with stable conditions favoring pollution build up over industrial areas, enhanced temperature induced biogenic emissions, methane releases from permafrost thawing, and enhanced concentration through reduced biospheric uptake. During the last 5–10 years, new observational data have been made available and used for model validation and the study of atmospheric processes. Although there are significant uncertainties in the modeling of composition changes, access to new observational data has improved modeling capability. Emission scenarios for the coming decades have a large uncertainty range, in particular with respect to regional trends, leading to a significant uncertainty range in estimated regional composition changes and climate impact.     

Diversity and adaptation of shelters in transitional settlements for IDPs in Afghanistan

The diversity of shelters used in transitional settlements for internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Herat, Afghanistan is described. The information is based on a field survey undertaken in March 2002 and highlights the adaptation techniques, which IDPs undertake to improve any provided shelter. Potential areas for improvement are indicated; for example, the possibility for using insulated, demountable liners to prevent cold-related deaths without sacrificing shelter flexibility along with the likely need for better agency coordination of the shelter responses they provide. The wider context in which the technical recommendations would be implemented must also be considered. Such issues include agency resources, political impediments to providing the desired option, and the preference of many IDPs that the best shelter would be their home.     

Nitrogen deposition threatens species richness of grasslands across Europe

Evidence from an international survey in the Atlantic biogeographic region of Europe indicates that chronic nitrogen deposition is reducing plant species richness in acid grasslands. Across the deposition gradient in this region (2-44 kg N ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹) species richness showed a curvilinear response, with greatest reductions in species richness when deposition increased from low levels. This has important implications for conservation policies, suggesting that to protect the most sensitive grasslands resources should be focussed where deposition is currently low. Soil pH is also an important driver of species richness indicating that the acidifying effect of nitrogen deposition may be contributing to species richness reductions. The results of this survey suggest that the impacts of nitrogen deposition can be observed over a large geographical range.     

An investigation of the impact of afforestation on stream-water chemistry in the Loch Dee catchment, SW Scotland

The impact of conifer afforestation on stream-water chemistry was investigated in the acidified catchment of Loch Dee, SW Scotland. Long-term trends in stream-water chemistry were evaluated during a period of forest growth from age 6 to 17 years. A significant increase was observed for pH (0.2 units) and a significant decline for aluminium (0.05 mg litre(-1)), sulphate (1.2 mg litre(-1)) and nitrate (0.02 mg litre(-1)) concentrations. The long-term decrease in stream-water acidity was ascribed to the marked reductions in sulphur depositions during the 1970s and early 1980s. There was no evidence that this response had been attenuated by afforestation, the improvements in stream-water chemistry being of a similar magnitude to those recorded in nearby moorland lochs and exceeding that in an adjacent moorland-catchment stream. The lack of a clear forest acidification effect is consistent with deposition-model estimates which show the increased scavenging of occult and dry deposition by the growing forest to be small at this site (相似文献