Misuse of null hypothesis significance testing: would estimation of positive and negative predictive values improve certainty of chemical risk assessment?

Although generally misunderstood, the p value is the probability of the test results or more extreme results given H₀ is true: it is not the probability of H₀ being true given the results. To obtain directly useful insight about H₀, the positive predictive value (PPV) and the negative predictive value (NPV) may be useful extensions of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST). They provide information about the probability of statistically significant and non-significant test outcomes being true based on an a priori defined biologically meaningful effect size. The present study explores the utility of PPV and NPV in an ecotoxicological context by using the frequently applied Daphnia magna reproduction test (OECD guideline 211) and the chemical stressor lindane as a model system. The results indicate that especially the NPV deviates meaningfully between a test design strictly following the guideline and an experimental procedure controlling for α and β at the level of 0.05. Consequently, PPV and NPV may be useful supplements to NHST that inform the researcher about the level of confidence warranted by both statistically significant and non-significant test results. This approach also reinforces the value of considering α, β, and a biologically meaningful effect size a priori.     

Trends of perfluorochemicals in Greenland ringed seals and polar bears: Indications of shifts to decreasing trends

Time-series of perfluorinated alkylated substances (PFASs) in East Greenland polar bears and East and West Greenland ringed seals were updated in order to deduce whether a response to the major reduction in perfluoroalkyl production in the early 2000s had occurred. Previous studies had documented an exponential increase of perfluorooctane sulphonate (PFOS) in liver tissue from both species. In the present study, PFOS was still the far most dominant compound constituting 92% (West Greenland ringed seals), 88% (East Greenland ringed seals) and 85% (East Greenland polar bears). The PFOS concentrations increased up to 2006 with doubling times of approximately 6 years for the ringed seal populations and 14 years in case of polar bears. Since then a rapid decrease has occurred with clearing half-lives of approximately 1, 2 and 4 years, respectively. In polar bears perfluorohexane sulphonate (PFHxS) and perfluorooctane sulphonamide (PFOSA) also showed decreasing trends in recent years as do perfluorodecanoic acid (PFDA) and perfluoroundecanoic acid (PFUnA). For the West Greenland ringed seal population perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), perfluorononanoic acid (PFNA), PFDA and PFUnA peaked in the mid 2000s, whereas PFNA, PFDA and PFUnA in the East Greenland population have been stable or increasing in recent years. The peak of PFASs in Greenland ringed seals and polar bears occurred at a later time than in Canadian seals and polar bears and considerably later than observed in seal species from more southern latitudes. We suggest that this could be explained by the distance to emission hot-spots and differences in long-range transport to the Arctic.     

Change in Pulmonary Function in Children Associated with Air Pollution Episodes

Pulmonary function of approximately 200 school children in Steubenville, OH was measured before and immediately following air pollution alerts in the fall of 1978 and 1979. TSP concentrations exceeded the National Primary Ambient Air Quality 24 h standards in 1978. SO₂ exceeded the standard in 1979. The children were then reexamined in three weekly visits following each alert. Estimated mean Forced Vital Capacity (FVC) was approximately 2% lower following each alert, although the lowest means were observed one to two weeks after the episodes. Forced Expired Volume in 0.75 sec (FEV_0.75) did not change during the 1978 study, but was 4% lower immediately following the 1979 alert. The children were measured again in five weekly examinations in the spring and fall of 1980. Air pollution levels did not exceed the standards on either occasion. In the spring of 1980, estimated mean FVC and FEV_0.75 showed a decline similar to that observed following the alerts in 1978 and 1979. In the fall of 1980, there were no significant differences in the estimated mean FVC or FEV_0.75 between the examinations. A total of 335 children were tested in the four studies, including 194 who participated in more than one study. The evidence for each child from all the studies was combined in a regression analysis of pulmonary function on TSP and SO₂ average concentrations in the previous 24 h. The distribution of the individual regression coefficients was centered significantly below zero, implying a decrease in pulmonary function with increasing TSP and SO₂ concentrations. The magnitude of the median change was less than 1% of the mean FVC and FEV_0.75 over the range of TSP and SO₂ concentrations observed.     

The Relationship between Cross-Sectional and Time Series Studies

Abstract

There is a dearth of information on dust emissions from sources that are unique to the U.S. Department of Defense testing and training activities. However, accurate emissions factors are needed for these sources so that military installations can prepare accurate particulate matter (PM) emission inventories. One such source, coarse and fine PM (PM₁₀ and PM_2.5) emissions from artillery backblast testing on improved gun positions, was characterized at the Yuma Proving Ground near Yuma, AZ, in October 2005. Fugitive emissions are created by the shockwave from artillery pieces, which ejects dust from the surface on which the artillery is resting. Other contributions of PM can be attributed to the combustion of the propellants. For a 155–mm howitzer firing a range of propellant charges or zones, amounts of emitted PM₁₀ ranged from ～19 g of PM₁₀ per firing event for a zone 1 charge to 92 g of PM₁₀ per firing event for a zone 5. The corresponding rates for PM_2.5 were ～9 g of PM_2.5 and 49 g of PM_2.5 per firing. The average measured emission rates for PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 appear to scale with the zone charge value. The measurements show that the estimated annual contributions of PM₁₀ (52.2 t) and PM_2.5 (28.5 t) from artillery backblast are insignificant in the context of the 2002 U.S. Environment Protection Agency (EPA) PM emission inventory. Using national–level activity data for artillery fire, the most conservative estimate is that backblast would contribute the equivalent of 5 x 10^–4% and 1.6 x 10^–3% of the annual total PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 fugitive dust contributions, respectively, based on 2002 EPA inventory data.     

Comparison of Statistical Designs and Experimental Protocols Used to Evaluate Rain Acidity Effects on Field-Grown Soybeans

Published results of four field experiments testing effects of acidic precipitation in field-grown soybeans have led to contradictory conclusions. This paper examines the experimental procedures and protocols of the four experiments which could have contributed to differences in both the reported crop yields and the interpretations or conclusions drawn from the experiments.

The most important difference among the experiments is in their statistical designs. Two of the field layouts used only one plot per treatment, providing replication only for plants, rows or sectors within plots, but not among plots. By using real data from a highly replicated experiment it is shown that with such deficient statistical designs treatment effects cannot be separated from other microenvironmental variables peculiar to a specific plot location.

The other two experiments were highly replicated. They were designed to detect differences of approximately 10% among treatment means. Type 1 error, a, was predetermined, and replication was sufficient to keep type 2 error low. This design was made possible because a preliminary experiment was available to estimate the expected components of variance. Despite differences in the procedures and protocols among the four experiments, it is primarily the quality of the experimental design which has determined their validity and relative utility for crop loss assessment.     

Effects of a glyphosate-based herbicide on mate location in a wolf spider that inhabits agroecosystems

Chemical communication is important to many arthropod species but the potential exists for anthropogenic chemicals to disrupt information flow. Although glyphosate-based herbicides are not acutely toxic to arthropods, little is known regarding their effects on natural chemical communication pathways. The wolf spider, Pardosamilvina, is abundant in agroecosystems where herbicides are regularly applied and uses air- and substrate-borne chemical signals extensively during mating. The aim of this study was to examine effects of a commercial formulation of a glyphosate-based herbicide on the ability of males to find females. In the field, virgin females, when hidden inside pitfall traps with herbicide, attracted fewer males than females with water. Likewise females in traps with a ring of herbicide surrounding the opening were less likely to attract males than those in traps surrounded by water. We explored the reaction of males to any airborne component of the herbicide in a laboratory two-choice olfactometer experiment. When no female pheromones were present, males were equally likely to select herbicide or water treated corridors and they all moved through the apparatus at similar speeds. When female pheromones were present, the males that selected control corridors moved more slowly than those that selected herbicide and, if we control for the initial decision time, more males selected the control corridors over the herbicide. These data suggest that glyphosate-based herbicides are “info-disruptors” that alter the ability of males to detect and/or react fully to female signals.     

Atmospheric composition change research: Time to go post-normal?

For more than two decades a number of frameworks for scientific knowledge production are being proposed by science and technology researchers. They all advocate an extended involvement of non-specialists, in particular when it comes to knowledge production applicable to practical societal problems. We look to what extent these new frameworks have taken ground within a particular research community: the ACCENT Network of Excellence which coordinates European atmospheric chemistry and physics research applicable to air pollution and climate change. We did so by stimulating a debate through a “blog”, a survey and in-depth interviews with ACCENT scientists about the interaction between science, policy making and civil society, to which a great deal of ACCENT member contributed in writing or verbally. Most of them had interactions with policy makers and/or the general public, and they generally believe that interactions with spheres other than the scientific are needed. While such interactions give personal insight and satisfaction, they seem to have little impact on the goals and the practice of the scientific work itself. Extended frameworks of science production that go beyond the disciplinary mode seem to emerge at the level of individual scientists, yet they still need to find their way to the level of scientific project management. In this paper we discuss the justifications and barriers to implement a higher degree of extended knowledge integration in applied science projects such as ACCENT. It is felt that the community of atmospheric chemists and physicists is mature for such an implementation and recommendations are given to help and make this happen.     

Implications of simultaneity in a physical damage function

A modeler must often rely on highly simplified representations of complex physical systems when analyzing associated economic issues. Herein, we consider a management problem in which a bioeconomic system exhibits simultaneity in processes governing productivity and damage. In this case, it may benefit the producer to sacrifice productivity to reduce the costs associated with increased damage. We specify empirically a structural damage relationship that explains the biological process by which an invasive species damages a host and estimate the structural model and its reduced form with an exceptional dataset on infestation of olives by the olive fruit fly. We contrast the results of these models with the approach typically taken in the economic literature, which expresses damage as a function of pest density. The population-based approach introduces significantly greater bias into the individual grower's choice of damage-control inputs than estimates based on the structural model.