A review of vulnerability indicators for deltaic social–ecological systems

The sustainability of deltas worldwide is under threat due to the consequences of global environmental change (including climate change) and human interventions in deltaic landscapes. Understanding these systems is becoming increasingly important to assess threats to and opportunities for long-term sustainable development. Here, we propose a simplified, yet inclusive social–ecological system (SES)-centered risk and vulnerability framework and a list of indicators proven to be useful in past delta assessments. In total, 236 indicators were identified through a structured review of peer-reviewed literature performed for three globally relevant deltas—the Mekong, the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna and the Amazon. These are meant to serve as a preliminary “library” of potential indicators to be used for future vulnerability assessments. Based on the reviewed studies, we identified disparities in the availability of indicators to populate some of the vulnerability domains of the proposed framework, as comprehensive social–ecological assessments were seldom implemented in the past. Even in assessments explicitly aiming to capture both the social and the ecological system, there were many more indicators for social susceptibility and coping/adaptive capacities as compared to those relevant for characterizing ecosystem susceptibility or robustness. Moreover, there is a lack of multi-hazard approaches accounting for the specific vulnerability profile of sub-delta areas. We advocate for more comprehensive, truly social–ecological assessments which respond to multi-hazard settings and recognize within-delta differences in vulnerability and risk. Such assessments could make use of the proposed framework and list of indicators as a starting point and amend it with new indicators that would allow capturing the complexity as well as the multi-hazard exposure in a typical delta SES.     

Traps in and of our minds: relationships between human logic,dialectical traps and social-ecological traps

Social-ecological traps are theorized to be present when human actions affect feedbacks and drivers in social-ecological systems, which, in turn, lead to regime shifts that may alter ecosystem capacity to generate services on which human wellbeing depends, and this, in turn, triggers societal responses, where actors and institutions interact with ecological dynamics and unwittingly lock development into a vulnerable pathway. The key dynamic in this theorization seems to be that human action often predicates or initiates the series of cascading affects that determine the presence of, and, perhaps, the effectiveness of, social-ecological traps. However, what drives human action in this context? What logic, assumptions, decisions, world views, and other processes are implicated in this configuration? This paper first briefly reviews ecological identity and the problems of anthropocentricism, human exceptionalism, and human exemptionalism and introduces the term ecological disenfranchisement. Building upon this, the author invokes Horn’s logic and dialectical traps as a lens for understanding human roles and the prevalence of issues with ecological identities, within social ecological traps. Drilling further down, the paper illustrates these traps with short vignettes, in each case, attempting to link the human logical traps with larger system dynamics. Finally, the author proposes a chain of reasoning to serve as an example of how the presence of human logic traps (or entrapment) in a number of different spheres has an impact upon the larger system, and, perhaps, even predicts entrapment of the larger system. Future efforts to either understand social-ecological traps or navigate away or out of them must first take stock of the human logical traps that actors within the systems are influenced by, and that influence the large system(s).This paper argues that failing to account for human traps within will render most efforts to avoid or escape social-ecological traps futile.     

Four decades of glacier mass balance observations in the Indian Himalaya

Understanding the glacier mass balance is necessary to explain the rate of shrinkage and to infer the impact of climate change. The present study provides an overview of the glacier mass balance records by glaciological, geodetic, hydrological and accumulation-area ratio (AAR) and specific mass balance relationship methods in the Indian Himalaya since 1970s. It suggests that the mass balance measurements by glaciological methods have been conducted for ten glaciers in the western Himalaya, four glaciers in the central Himalaya and one in the eastern Himalaya. Hydrological mass balance has been conducted only on Siachen Glacier from 1987 to 1991. Geodetic method has been attempted for the Lahaul–Spiti region for a short time span during 1999–2011 and Hindu Kush–Karakoram–Himalaya region from 2003 to 2008. We compared in situ specific balance data series with specific mass balance derived from AAR and specific mass balance relationship. The results derived from existing and newly presented regression model based on AAR and specific mass balance relationship induced unrealistic specific mass balance for several glaciers. We also revised AAR0 and ELA0 based on available in situ AAR and specific mass balance data series of Indian Himalayan glaciers. In general, in situ specific and cumulative specific mass balance observed over different regions of the Indian Himalayan glaciers shows mostly negative mass balance years with a few positive ones during 1974–2012. On a regional level, the geodetic studies suggest that on the whole western, the central and the eastern Himalaya experienced vast thinning during the last decade (2000s). Conversely, Karakoram region showed slight mass gain during almost similar period. However, the glaciological, hydrological and geodetic mass balance data appear to exhibit short time series bias. We therefore recommend creation of benchmark glaciers network for future research to determine the impact of climate change on the Himalayan cryosphere.     

Species-specific and context-dependant disruption of temporal population fluctuations resulting from hypereutrophication events

This study quantifies the disruption of zooplankton population fluctuations in relation to two magnitudes of fire retardant contamination events using artificial ponds as model systems. Population time series were analysed using redundancy analysis where time was modelled with a principal coordinate of neighborhood matrices approach that identified relevant scales of fluctuation frequencies. Analyses of temporal coherence provided insight whether population fluctuations correlated with system intrinsic or extrinsic forces. Responses to stress were species-specific and context-dependant. Contamination changed temporal structure in some species. These alterations were associated with an increased intrinsic control of dynamics. In some cases the magnitude of impact was unrelated to contamination severity. Some populations were less tolerant of pollution in the low relative to the high concentration treatment. Results suggest that population-level monitoring of degraded sites may be suboptimal because disparate population responses complicate the selection of specific sentinel organisms to monitor stress.     

Particle size distribution of airborne Aspergillus fumigatus spores emitted from compost using membrane filtration

Information on the particle size distribution of bioaerosols emitted from open air composting operations is valuable in evaluating potential health impacts and is a requirement for improved dispersion simulation modelling. The membrane filter method was used to study the particle size distribution of Aspergillus fumigatus spores in air 50 m downwind of a green waste compost screening operation at a commercial facility. The highest concentrations (approximately 8 × 10⁴ CFU m⁻³) of culturable spores were found on filters with pore diameters in the range 1–2 μm which suggests that the majority of spores are emitted as single cells. The findings were compared to published data collected using an Andersen sampler. Results were significantly correlated (p < 0.01) indicating that the two methods are directly comparable across all particles sizes for Aspergillus spores.     

Biomass consumption and CO2, CO and main hydrocarbon gas emissions in an Amazonian forest clearing fire

Biomass consumption and CO₂, CO and hydrocarbon gas emissions in an Amazonian forest clearing fire are presented and discussed. The experiment was conducted in the arc of deforestation, near the city of Alta Floresta, state of Mato Grosso, Brazil. The average carbon content of dry biomass was 48% and the estimated average moisture content of fresh biomass was 42% on wet weight basis. The fresh biomass and the amount of carbon on the ground before burning were estimated as 528 t ha^?1 and 147 t ha^?1, respectively. The overall biomass consumption for the experiment was estimated as 23.9%. A series of experiment in the same region resulted in average efficiency of 40% for areas of same size and 50% for larger areas. The lower efficiency obtained in the burn reported here occurred possibly due to rain before the experiment. Excess mixing ratios were measured for CO₂, CO, CH₄, C₂–C₃ aliphatic hydrocarbons, and PM_2.5. Excess mixing ratios of CH₄ and C₂–C₃ hydrocarbons were linearly correlated with those of CO. The average emission factors of CO₂, CO, CH₄, NMHC, and PM_2.5 were 1,599, 111.3, 9.2, 5.6, and 4.8 g kg^?1 of burned dry biomass, respectively. One hectare of burned forest released about 117,000 kg of CO₂, 8100 kg of CO, 675 kg of CH₄, 407 kg of NMHC and 354 kg of PM_2.5.     

The development of effects-based air quality management regimes

This paper considers the evolution of attempts to control and manage air pollution, principally but not exclusively focussing upon the challenge of managing air pollution in urban environments. The development and implementation of a range of air pollution control measures are considered. Initially the measures implemented primarily addressed point sources, a small number of fuel types and a limited number of pollutants. The adequacy of such a source-control approach is assessed within the context of a changing and challenging air pollution climate. An assessment of air quality management in the United Kingdom over a 50-year timeframe exemplifies the range of issues and challenges in contemporary air quality management. The need for new approaches is explored and the development and implementation of an effects-based, risk management system for air quality regulation is evaluated.     

Impact of large scale circulation on European summer surface ozone and consequences for modelling forecast

In this study, we investigate the benefit for European ozone simulation of using day-to-day varying chemical boundary conditions produced by a global chemical weather forecast platform instead of climatological monthly means at the frontiers of a regional model. We performed two simulations over Europe using the regional (0.5 × 0.5°) CHIMERE CTM forced by global scale simulations based on the LMDz-INCA CTM. For summer 2005, ozone differences exceeding 20 ppb can be punctually found between these two simulations in the borders of the domain. The mean of the differences ranges between 0 and 3 ppb beyond 15° of the frontiers of the regional model.Correlations with ground-based ozone measurements at more than 400 stations are slightly increased by the use of daily boundary conditions. The simulation of the temporal variability is significantly enhanced in particular for the daily means and daily maxima. As expected, the gain is higher at the borders of the regional domain.The change of percentile distribution shows that the net impact of high temporal resolution boundary conditions is not of major concern for surface ozone peaks which are mainly due to local photochemistry. The use of daily boundary conditions is however necessary to correctly simulate concentrations in the 20–35 ppb range which are of crucial interest for human and vegetation exposure effects.     

Surface ozone background in the United States: Canadian and Mexican pollution influences

We use a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) with 1° × 1° horizontal resolution to quantify the effects of anthropogenic emissions from Canada, Mexico, and outside North America on daily maximum 8-hour average ozone concentrations in US surface air. Simulations for summer 2001 indicate mean North American and US background concentrations of 26 ± 8 ppb and 30 ± 8 ppb, as obtained by eliminating anthropogenic emissions in North America vs. in the US only. The US background never exceeds 60 ppb in the model. The Canadian and Mexican pollution enhancement averages 3 ± 4 ppb in the US in summer but can be occasionally much higher in downwind regions of the northeast and southwest, peaking at 33 ppb in upstate New York (on a day with 75 ppb total ozone) and 18 ppb in southern California (on a day with 68 ppb total ozone). The model is successful in reproducing the observed variability of ozone in these regions, including the occurrence and magnitude of high-ozone episodes influenced by transboundary pollution. We find that exceedances of the 75 ppb US air quality standard in eastern Michigan, western New York, New Jersey, and southern California are often associated with Canadian and Mexican pollution enhancements in excess of 10 ppb. Sensitivity simulations with 2020 emission projections suggest that Canadian pollution influence in the Northeast US will become comparable in magnitude to that from domestic power plants.