Critical Risk Indicators (CRIs) for the electric power grid: a survey and discussion of interconnected effects

The electric power grid is a critical societal resource connecting multiple infrastructural domains such as agriculture, transportation, and manufacturing. The electrical grid as an infrastructure is shaped by human activity and public policy in terms of demand and supply requirements. Further, the grid is subject to changes and stresses due to diverse factors including solar weather, climate, hydrology, and ecology. The emerging interconnected and complex network dependencies make such interactions increasingly dynamic, posing novel risks, and presenting new challenges to manage the coupled human–natural system. This paper provides a survey of models and methods that seek to explore the significant interconnected impact of the electric power grid and interdependent domains. We also provide relevant critical risk indicators (CRIs) across diverse domains that may be used to assess risks to electric grid reliability, including climate, ecology, hydrology, finance, space weather, and agriculture. We discuss the convergence of indicators from individual domains to explore possible systemic risk, i.e., holistic risk arising from cross-domain interconnections. Further, we propose a compositional approach to risk assessment that incorporates diverse domain expertise and information, data science, and computer science to identify domain-specific CRIs and their union in systemic risk indicators. Our study provides an important first step towards data-driven analysis and predictive modeling of risks in interconnected human–natural systems.

     

Increasing the effectiveness of environmental decision support systems: lessons from climate change adaptation projects in Canada and Australia

Regional Environmental Change - There is a need to increase regional and community level action towards adaptation to climate change. Natural resource managers and planners have to make challenging...     

Climate change effects on an endemic-rich edaphic flora: resurveying Robert H. Whittaker's Siskiyou sites (Oregon, USA)

Species with relatively narrow niches, such as plants restricted (endemic) to particular soils, may be especially vulnerable to extinction under a changing climate due to the enhanced difficulty they face in migrating to suitable new sites. To test for community-level effects of climate change, and to compare such effects in a highly endemic-rich flora on unproductive serpentine soils vs. the flora of normal (diorite) soils, in 2007 we resampled as closely as possible 108 sites originally studied by ecologist Robert H. Whittaker from 1949 to 1951 in the Siskiyou Mountains of southern Oregon, USA. We found sharp declines in herb cover and richness on both serpentine and diorite soils. Declines were strongest in species of northern biogeographic affinity, species endemic to the region (in serpentine communities only), and species endemic to serpentine soils. Consistent with climatic warming, herb communities have shifted from 1949-1951 to 2007 to more closely resemble communities found on xeric (warm, dry) south-facing slopes. The changes found in the Siskiyou herb flora suggest that biotas rich in narrowly distributed endemics may be particularly susceptible to the effects of a warming climate.     

The archaeology of deforestation in south coastal Turkey

The Rough Cilicia Archaeological Survey Project investigates landscape transformation as a component to its regional survey of ancient Rough Cilicia (south coastal Turkey opposite Cyprus). Rough Cilicia was celebrated during antiquity for pristine cedar forests that stood between 1500 and 1800 m in altitude along the slopes of the Taurus Mountains. Today along the front range of the Taurus Mountains this forest is completely denuded or otherwise replanted with recent growth in the past 80 years. We employ paleoenvironmental analysis of relic cedar forests in the Taurus Mountains to construct a timeline of anthropogenic disturbances associated with population growth over time and thereby assess the sustainability of ancient forestry practices. To obtain these data, the team recovers pollen and carbon samples from geomorphologic trenches excavated in the cedar zone, tree ring data from dendrochronological survey of the existing forest, and archaeological data from remains of ancient highland settlements. Preliminary results indicate that current perspectives about the timing of deforestation in this region are flawed and that the initial deforestation coincided with regional site abandonment and population decline at the end of antiquity.     

Uptake rates of thorium progeny in a semiarid environment

The release rates and transformation processes that influence the mobility, biological uptake, and transfer of radionuclides are essential to the assessment of the health effects in the food chain and ecosystem. This study examined concentrations of 222Th in both soil and vegetation at a closed military training site, Kirtland Air Force Base (KAFB), New Mexico. Brazilian sludge was intentionally introduced into the topsoil in the early 1960s to simulate nuclear weapon accidents. Soil (60) and vegetation (120) samples were collected from 1996 to 2000 and analyzed for radionuclides and progeny. High-resolution gamma-ray spectroscopy was used to determine radionuclide activities. The results indicate that the thorium progeny were the predominant contaminant in soil and vegetation. Concentration ratios (CRs) were calculated based on actinium levels.     

Operation strategy of a sequencing batch reactor for simultaneous removal of wastewater organic matter and nutrients

The Sequencing Batch Reactor (SBR) system employing activated sludge process is an alternative wastewater treatment technology. A cycle of the conventional SBR system generally consists of five periods, with complete aeration during the React period to oxidize the organic matter and nitrify the ammonium-nitrogen of wastewater. Laboratory-scale reactors were used to evaluate the feasibility of incorporating alternative aerobic-anoxic-aerobic stages within the React period for simultaneous removal of organic matter, N and P. Two cycles of SBR process per day were maintained.Under the operation strategy of 0.75-h fill, 8-h react (with continuous aeration), 3.25-h settle, draw and idle periods, the treatment performance became consistent after running the system for two to four cycles (1–2 days). The percentages of both BOD₅ and COD removal were around 94% from Cycle 2 onwards, the BOD₅ content dropped from initial 251 mg L⁻¹ to less than 14 mg L⁻¹ in the final effluent. A steady nitrification (about 97%) was obtained from Cycle 4 onwards, with 1 mg NH₄⁺-N L⁻¹ and 25 mg NO₃⁻-N L⁻¹ present in the final effluent. This suggested that the time required for SBR system to acclimate and reach an equilibrium state was relatively short when compared with the time needed for continuous flow activated sludge system. The findings also show that 4-h aeration during the react period was long enough to achieve more than 90% nitrification. With the incorporation of a 3-h anoxic stage after the initial 4-h aeration of the react period, a satisfactory denitrification process was observed, with nitrate level dropped from 27 to around 8 mg L⁻¹ within 3 h. The second aeration stage did not cause significant change in wastewater nitrogen content. The wastewater phosphate content declined rapidly during the initial 4-h aeration and P-release was not observed during the anoxic stage. A slight reduction of P was found in the second aeration stage suggesting that more P-uptake occurred in this stage. A 12-h cyclic SBR system with the incorporation of 4-h aerobic, 3-h anoxic and final 1-h aerobic stages into the 8-h react period was demonstrated to be able to remove C, N and P simultaneously.     

Nitrogen fertilizer management for nitrous oxide (N<Subscript>2</Subscript>O) mitigation in intensive corn (Maize) production: an emissions reduction protocol for US Midwest agriculture

Nitrous oxide (N₂O) is a major greenhouse gas (GHG) product of intensive agriculture. Fertilizer nitrogen (N) rate is the best single predictor of N₂O emissions in row-crop agriculture in the US Midwest. We use this relationship to propose a transparent, scientifically robust protocol that can be utilized by developers of agricultural offset projects for generating fungible GHG emission reduction credits for the emerging US carbon cap and trade market. By coupling predicted N₂O flux with the recently developed maximum return to N (MRTN) approach for determining economically profitable N input rates for optimized crop yield, we provide the basis for incentivizing N₂O reductions without affecting yields. The protocol, if widely adopted, could reduce N₂O from fertilized row-crop agriculture by more than 50%. Although other management and environmental factors can influence N₂O emissions, fertilizer N rate can be viewed as a single unambiguous proxy—a transparent, tangible, and readily manageable commodity. Our protocol addresses baseline establishment, additionality, permanence, variability, and leakage, and provides for producers and other stakeholders the economic and environmental incentives necessary for adoption of agricultural N₂O reduction offset projects.     

Discrimination of flicker frequency rates in the reptile tuatara (Sphenodon )

By investigating the mechanisms that underlie the perception of environmental cues, we may begin to understand how the sensory system governs behavioral responses. This is the first empirical study to examine learning and visual sensitivity in a reptile species, the tuatara (Sphenodon punctatus). We established a non-intrusive psychophysical method by employing an instrumental paradigm in order to examine discrimination learning and the ability to distinguish different flicker frequencies in the tuatara. Seventeen tuatara were trained under an operant conditioning task to respond to various discriminative stimuli flickering between 2.65 and 65.09 Hz. Tuatara were able to learn the operant task and discriminate between a constant light and flicker frequency rates between 2.65 and 45.61 Hz, but not at 65.09 Hz. We demonstrated a reliable psychophysical method where these reptiles could learn a basic operant task and discriminate visual stimuli in the form of flicker frequency rates. The tuatara’s ability to perceive flickering light is comparable to that of avian, mammalian, and other reptilian species. This method is thus suitable for more comprehensive examinations of vision and additional sensory abilities in other reptiles. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.