The forest frontier in the Global South: Climate change policies and the promise of development and equity

Halting forest loss and achieving sustainable development in an equitable manner require state, non-state actors, and entire societies in the Global North and South to tackle deeply established patterns of inequality and power relations embedded in forest frontiers. Forest and climate governance in the Global South can provide an avenue for the transformational change needed—yet, does it? We analyse the politics and power in four cases of mitigation, adaptation, and development arenas. We use a political economy lens to explore the transformations taking place when climate policy meets specific forest frontiers in the Global South, where international, national and local institutions, interests, ideas, and information are at play. We argue that lasting and equitable outcomes will require a strong discursive shift within dominant institutions and among policy actors to redress policies that place responsibilities and burdens on local people in the Global South, while benefits from deforestation and maladaptation are taken elsewhere. What is missing is a shared transformational objective and priority to keep forests standing among all those involved from afar in the major forest frontiers in the tropics.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01602-1.     

Savanna tree density, herbivores, and the herbaceous community: bottom-up vs. top-down effects

Herbivores choose their habitats both to maximize forage intake and to minimize their risk of predation. For African savanna herbivores, the available habitats range in woody cover from open areas with few trees to dense, almost-closed woodlands. This variation in woody cover or density can have a number of consequences for herbaceous species composition, cover, and productivity, as well as for ease of predator detection and avoidance. Here, we consider two alternative possibilities: first, that tree density affects the herbaceous vegetation, with concomitant "bottom-up" effects on herbivore habitat preferences; or, second, that tree density affects predator visibility, mediating "top-down" effects of predators on herbivore habitat preferences. We sampled sites spanning a 10-fold range of tree densities in an Acacia drepanolobium-dominated savanna in Laikipia, Kenya, for variation in (1) herbaceous cover, composition, and species richness; (2) wild and domestic herbivore use; and (3) degree of visibility obstruction by the tree layer. We then used structural equation modeling to consider the potential influences that tree density may have on herbivores and herbaceous community properties. Tree density was associated with substantial variation in herbaceous species composition and richness. Cattle exhibited a fairly uniform use of the landscape, whereas wild herbivores, with the exception of elephants, exhibited a strong preference for areas of low tree density. Model results suggest that this was not a response to variation in herbaceous-community characteristics, but rather a response to the greater visibility associated with more open places. Elephants, in contrast, preferred areas with higher densities of trees, apparently because of greater forage availability. These results suggest that, for all but the largest species, top-down behavioral effects of predator avoidance on herbivores are mediated by tree density. This, in turn, appears to have cascading effects on the herbaceous vegetation. These results shed light on one of the major features of the "landscape of fear" in which African savanna herbivores exist.     

Quantitative analyses of selected polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) congeners in water,soil, and sediment during winter and spring seasons from Msunduzi River,South Africa

The lack of information and the need for knowledge on the organic pollutants within the area of KwaZulu-Natal together with the global problem of water supply have prompted our investigation into the analyses of eight polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) congeners in the Msunduzi River of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Soil, sediment, and water samples were collected at ten different sites along the river during winter and spring seasons. Soil and sediment samples were extracted using ultra sonication with dichloromethane while water samples were liquid-liquid extracted using dichloromethane. All sample extracts were cleaned-up using a multi-layer silica gel column and analyzed with gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. Quality assurance measures were also determined. The percentage recoveries for water were 53–128 for all the PCBs analyzed, while sediment recoveries ranged between 69 and 105%. The highest total concentrations of the PCBs in sediment were 214.21–610.45 ng/g dw at the Du Toit sampling site and 30.86–444.43 ng/g dw basis at the wastewater treatment inlet for winter and spring, respectively. Soil PCB concentrations were 76.53–397.75 ng/g dw at the Msunduzi Town sampling site and 20.84–443.49 ng/g (dry weight) at the Du Toit sampling site for winter and spring, respectively. In addition, high PCB concentrations were found in effluent of the wastewater treatment inlet compared to other sampling sites, which ranged between 0.68–22.37 and 2.53–35.69 ng/mL for winter and spring seasons, respectively. In all the sampling sites selected for this study, Du Toit afforded the highest PCB concentration levels and the lowest was after chlorination at the Darvill wastewater treatment plant. The results presented are new and it is the first study of organic pollutants such as PCBs that has been carried out on this river.     

Micro-level social vulnerability assessment towards climate change adaptation in semi-arid Ghana,West Africa

This study determined the social vulnerability index (SoVI) of households to climate change impacts for three identified locations (upper, mid and lower) in the Vea catchment, semi-arid Ghana. This study adapted the social, economic and demographic indicator approach. The data used were obtained from a survey of 186 randomly sampled farm households and direct field measurements of 738 farm plots belonging to the same sampled farm households. Information from the literature, expert judgement and principal component analysis were useful for computing and analysing the SoVI. The variables were normalized, weighted and subsequently recombined to determine the index of the three locations towards climate change. Although the SoVI to climate change was highest (0.77) for the upper part of the catchment, the mid- and lower parts of the catchment show a high SoVI of 0.72 each. The overall SoVI for the catchment is 0.73. The study re-emphasizes the high vulnerability level of dry areas to climate change. Moreover, it shows there is variability at micro-scale. There is a need to put appropriate measures to address the vulnerability of households to climate change in the semi-arid areas of West Africa. Factors aggravating dry land’s vulnerability towards climate change should be prevented with implementable policies. Furthermore, it is important to identify conditions that have made some areas less vulnerable to climate change, and then, we can work out the possibility of adapting such to the vulnerable places.     

Compliance with Canada’s Fisheries Act: A Field Audit of Habitat Compensation Projects

Loss of fish habitat in North America has occurred at an unprecedented rate through the last century. In response, the Canadian Parliament enacted the habitat provisions of the Fisheries Act. Under these provisions, a “harmful alteration, disruption, or destruction to fish habitat” (HADD) cannot occur unless authorised by Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO), with legally binding compensatory habitat to offset the HADD. The guiding principle to DFO’s conservation goal is “no net loss of the productive capacity of fish habitats” (NNL). However, performance in achieving NNL has never been evaluated on a national scale. We investigated 52 habitat compensation projects across Canada to determine compliance with physical, biological, and chemical requirements of Section 35(2) Fisheries Act authorisations. Biological requirements had the lowest compliance (58%) and chemical requirements the highest (100%). Compliance with biological requirements differed among habitat categories and was poorest (19% compliance) in riparian habitats. Approximately 86% of authorisations had larger HADD and/or smaller compensation areas than authorised. The largest noncompliance in terms of habitat area occurred in riverine habitat in which HADDs were, on average, 343% larger than initially authorised. In total, 67% of compensation projects resulted in net losses of habitat area, 2% resulted in no net loss, and 31% achieved a net gain in habitat area. Interestingly, probable violations of the Fisheries Act were prevalent at half of the projects. Analyses indicated that the frequency of probable Fisheries Act violations differed among provinces. Habitat compensation to achieve NNL, as currently implemented in Canada, is at best only slowing the rate of habitat loss. In all likelihood, increasing the amount of authorised compensatory habitat in the absence of institutional changes will not reverse this trend. Improvements in monitoring and enforcement are necessary to move towards achieving Canada’s conservation goals.     

Development and preparation of lead-containing paint films and diagnostic test materials

Lead in paint continues to be a threat to children's health in cities across the United States, which means there is an ongoing need for testing and analysis of paint. This ongoing analytical effort and especially development of new methods continue to drive the need for diagnostic testing materials that provide the analytical challenges of real-world paints. To this end, 31 different types of paint test materials were developed and prepared. Preparation of the materials included development of lead-containing paint films yielding an overall relative standard error for one individual test sample being less than 10%. The 31 diagnostic test materials prepared with these paint films included two lead pigments; lead concentrations from nominally 0 to 2.0 mg lead/cm(2) (0 to 5% lead by weight); overlayers of both "lead-free," oil-based and water-based paints; Al, Ba, and Mg as potential chemical interferents; red and black potential color interferents; and substrates of wood, metal, masonry, and plaster. These materials challenge each step in method development and evaluation, including paint sample collection and preparation, lead extraction, and measurement of solubilized lead. When the materials were used to test performance of a new lead-in-paint testing method based on extraction using a rotor/stator method and measurement using turbidimetry, the results agreed to within ±20% of the expected lead values for 30 out of 31 of the diagnostic test materials, thereby demonstrating their levels of quality and utility.     

A Preliminary Evaluation of the DDT Contamination of Sediments in Lakes Natron and Bogoria (Eastern Rift Valley,Africa)

Dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) is still used in Africa for the indoor control of malaria and it may represent a potential hazard for wildlife. The littoral sediments of two alkaline-saline lakes, Natron (Tanzania) and Bogoria (Kenya), in the Eastern Rift Valley, supporting large populations of lesser flamingos (Phoeniconaias minor), were analysed for DDT residues. Physical–chemical analyses (temperature, conductivity, pH and dissolved oxygen) were also performed on the water of the two lakes and in the tributaries of Lake Natron, to evaluate the influence of the environmental variables on pollutant occurrence. At Lake Natron, around 1 km from the sediment collection sites, tree leaves of Acacia tortilis were also collected. The main metabolite found in all sediment samples was pp’DDE, whilst equal concentrations of pp’DDT and pp’DDE were measured in acacia leaves. The levels of DDTs measured in the sediments were within 5.9–30.9 ng g⁻¹ d.w., reaching the maximum value in a tributary of Lake Natron. On the whole, the contamination of Lake Natron and Lake Bogoria basins seems to be quite moderate. Nevertheless, the pp’DDE/pp’DDT ratio equals 1 in the Acacia tortilis leaves, which makes one suppose that the input of the parent compound was rather recent and could have been from aerial transport or dust from relatively close-by old pesticides storage sites.     

Modelling of discharge and atmospheric dispersion for carbon dioxide releases

This paper discusses the modelling of the discharge and subsequent atmospheric dispersion for carbon dioxide releases using extensions of models in the consequence modelling package Phast. Phast examines the progress of a potential incident from the initial release to the far-field dispersion including the modelling of rainout and subsequent vaporisation. The original Phast discharge and dispersion models allow the released chemical to occur only in the vapour and liquid phases. As part of the current work these models have been extended to also allow for the occurrence of liquid to solid transition or vapour to solid transition. This applies both for the post-expansion state in the discharge model, as well as for the thermodynamic calculations by the dispersion model. Solid property calculations have been added where necessary. The above extensions are generally valid for fluid releases including CO₂. Using the extended dispersion formulation, a sensitivity study has been carried out for mixing of solid CO₂ with air, and it is demonstrated that solid effects may significantly affect the predicted concentrations.     

Tissue heavy metal concentrations of stranded California sea lions (Zalophus californianus) in Southern California

Concentrations of nine heavy metals (As, Cd, Cu, Fe, Hg, Pb, Mn, Mo and Zn) were determined in the hepatic and renal tissues of 80 stranded California sea lions (Zalophus californianus). Significant age-dependant increases were observed in liver and kidney concentrations of cadmium and mercury, and renal zinc concentrations. Hepatic iron concentrations were significantly higher in females than males. Animals with suspected domoic acid associated pathological findings had significantly higher concentrations of liver and kidney cadmium; and significantly higher liver mercury concentrations when compared to animals classified with infectious disease or traumatic mortality. Significantly higher hepatic burdens of molybdenum and zinc were found in animals that died from infectious diseases. This is the largest study of tissue heavy metal concentrations in California sea lions to date. These data demonstrate how passive monitoring of stranded animals can provide insight into environmental impacts on marine mammals.     

Establishment of a Box-Jenkins multivariate time-series model to simulate ground-level peak daily one-hour ozone concentrations at Ta-Liao in Taiwan

Box-Jenkins univariate autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and regression with time-series error (RTSE) models were established to simulate historical peak daily 1-hr ozone concentrations at Ta-Liao, Taiwan, 1997-2001. During 1995-2003, the 600 days of Pollution Standard Index (PSI) more than 100 (peak daily 1-hr ozone concentrations detected by greater than 120 ppm) at Tao-Liao showed the highest ozone exceedances among the six monitoring stations in Kaohsiung County. To improve the predictability of extremely high ozone, two different principal components, PC1 and PC(1 + 2), were introduced in the RTSE model. Four typical predictors (particular matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 10 microm, temperature, wind speed, and wind direction) plus a PC trigger remained significant in the RTSE model. The model performance statistics concluded that the RTSE model with PC1 was optimal, compared with the univariate ARIMA, the RTSE model without PC, and RTSE model with PC(1 + 2). The contingency table shows that the successful predictions of the univariate model were only 12.9% of that of the RTSE model with PC1. Also, the POD value was improved approximately 5-fold when the univariate model was replaced by the RTSE model, and almost 8-fold when it was replaced by the RTSE model with PC1. Moreover, introducing the PC trigger indeed enhanced the ozone predictability. After the PC trigger was introduced in the RTSE model, the POD was increased 69.9%, and the FAR was reduced 8.3%. The overall correlation between the observed and simulated ozone was improved 9.6%. Also, the first principal component was more useful than the first two components in playing the "trigger" role, though it counted only for 58.62% of the environmental variance during the high ozone days.