Sensitivity to assumptions in models of generalist predation on a cyclic prey

Ecological theory predicts that generalist predators should damp or suppress long-term periodic fluctuations (cycles) in their prey populations and depress their average densities. However, the magnitude of these impacts is likely to vary depending on the availability of alternative prey species and the nature of ecological mechanisms driving the prey cycles. These multispecies effects can be modeled explicitly if parameterized functions relating prey consumption to prey abundance, and realistic population dynamical models for the prey, are available. These requirements are met by the interaction between the Hen Harrier (Circus cyaneus) and three of its prey species in the United Kingdom, the Meadow Pipit (Anthus pratensis), the field vole (Microtus agrestis), and the Red Grouse (Lagopus lagopus scoticus). We used this system to investigate how the availability of alternative prey and the way in which prey dynamics are modeled might affect the behavior of simple trophic networks. We generated cycles in one of the prey species (Red Grouse) in three different ways: through (1) the interaction between grouse density and macroparasites, (2) the interaction between grouse density and male grouse aggressiveness, and (3) a generic, delayed density-dependent mechanism. Our results confirm that generalist predation can damp or suppress grouse cycles, but only when the densities of alternative prey are low. They also demonstrate that diametrically opposite indirect effects between pairs of prey species can occur together in simple systems. In this case, pipits and grouse are apparent competitors, whereas voles and grouse are apparent facilitators. Finally, we found that the quantitative impacts of the predator on prey density differed among the three models of prey dynamics, and these differences were robust to uncertainty in parameter estimation and environmental stochasticity.     

ASSESSING THE THREAT TO LIFE FROM DAM FAILURE1

ABSTRACT: To facilitate decisions regarding the need for modification of potentially unsafe dams, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation developed procedures for assessing the threat to human lives posed by the failure of individual dams. The procedures provide a conceptual model of the variables influencing the loss of life from dam failure and a method for predicting loss of life based on the size of the population at risk from failure and the amount of warning time available for that population. The prediction equations are based on an analysis of 24 dam failures and major flash floods occurring since 1950. Adjustments to the predictions to reflect special local conditions are also discussed.     

Monitoring Australian Rangeland Sites Using Landscape Function Indicators and Ground- and Remote-Based Techniques

If the goal for managing rangelands is to achieve a balance between production and conservation, then monitoring is essential to detect change and apply corrective action. In some range-land areas of northern Australia, monitoring has detected a tilt in the production-conservation balance towards excessive production. How big is this imbalance? Can it shift back? Robust monitoring is needed to answer these questions. The aim is to know what to monitor, and where. For example, to detect changes caused by livestock on rangeland forage production and soil erosion, indicators linking grazing disturbances to landscape function are needed, that is, indicators that signal how well landscapes are capturing, concentrating, and utilizing scarce water, nutrient, and organic resources. Studies in Australia and the USA document that simple vegetation and soil patch attributes can be measured as indicators of the 'state of health' of landscape function. For example, field and remote sensing-based grazing studies in Australia document that landscapes with a high cover of perennial plant patches function effectively to capture runoff water and nutrients in sediments, whereas landscapes with a low cover of these patches do not — they are dysfunctional — as indicated by large patches of bare soil. Aerial videography is proving to be a robust technique for measuring indicators of landscape function such as small patches of vegetation and the extent of bare soil. These indicators typically have a sigmoidal response to grazing impacts. We illustrate that if these indicators are measured on monitoring sites established near the sigmoidal 'point of inflection’ then small changes in these indicators can be detected.     

Relating meteorological variables and trends in motor vehicle emissions to monthly urban carbon monoxide concentrations

A model which quantifies the relationship between the monthly time series for CO emissions, the monthly time series in ambient CO concentration, and meteorologically driven dispersion was developed. Fifteen cities representing a wide range of geographical and climatic conditions were selected. An eight-year time series (1984–1991 inclusive) of monthly averaged data were examined in each city. A new method of handling missing ambient concentration values which is designed to calculate city-wide average concentrations that follow the trend seen at individual monitor sites is presented. This method is general and can be used in other applications involving missing data. The model uses emissions estimates along with two meteorological variables (wind speed and mixing height) to estimate monthly averages of ambient air pollution concentrations. The model is shown to have a wide range of applicability; it works equally well for a wide range of cities that have very different temporal CO distributions. The model is suited for assessing long-term trends in ambient air pollutants and can also be used for estimating seasonal variations in concentration, estimation of trends in emissions, and for filling in gaps in the ambient concentration record.     

Optimizing carbon sequestration in commercial forests by integrating carbon management objectives in wood supply modeling

This paper provides a methodology for generating forest management plans, which explicitly maximize carbon (C) sequestration at the forest-landscape level. This paper takes advantage of concepts first presented in a paper by Meng et al. (2003; Mitigation Adaptation Strategies Global Change 8:371–403) by integrating C-sequestration objective functions in existing wood supply models. Carbon-stock calculations performed in Woodstock^TM (RemSoft Inc.) are based on C yields generated from volume table data obtained from local Forest Development Survey plots and a series of wood volume-to-C content conversion factors specified in von Mirbach (2000). The approach is used to investigate the impact of three demonstration forest-management scenarios on the C budget in a 110,000 ha forest in south-central New Brunswick, Canada. Explicit demonstration scenarios addressed include (1) maximizing timber extraction either by clearcut or selection harvesting for greatest revenue generation, (2) maximizing total C storage in the forest landscape and in wood products generated from harvesting, and (3) maximizing C storage together with revenue generation. The level of clearcut harvesting was greatest for scenario 1 (≥15 × 10⁴ m³ of wood and ≥943 ha of land per harvesting period), and least for scenario 2 (=0 m³ per harvesting period) where selection harvesting dominated. Because softwood saw logs were worth more than pulpwood ($60 m⁻³ vs. $40 m⁻³) and were strategic to the long-term storage of C, the production of softwood saw logs exceeded the production of pulpwood in all scenarios. Selection harvesting was generally the preferred harvesting method across scenarios. Only in scenario 1 did levels of clearcut harvesting occasionally exceed those of selection harvesting, mainly in the removal of old, dilapidated stands early in the simulation (i.e., during periods 1 through 3). Scenario 2 provided the greatest total C-storage increase over 80 years (i.e., 14 × 10⁶ Mg C, or roughly 264 Mg ha⁻¹) at a cost of $111 per Mg C due to lost revenues. Scenarios 3 and 1 produced reduced storage rates of roughly 9 × 10⁶ Mg C and 3 × 10⁶ Mg C, respectively; about 64% and 22% of the total, 80-year C storage calculated in scenario 2. The bulk of the C in scenario 2 was stored in the forest, amounting to about 76% of the total C sequestered.     

Prenatal diagnosis of a new syndrome: Holoprosencephaly with hypokinesia

Markedly decreased fetal activity (akinesia/hypokinesia) is usually readily apparent to experienced mothers, and frequently this concern leads to attempts at prenatal diagnosis. We report prenatal diagnosis of two fetuses with congenital contractures, markedly decreased fetal movement, and microcephaly due to severe holoprosencephaly. Such familial recurrence to phenotypically normal parents suggests a newly recognized autosomal recessive or X-linked syndrome that is readily detectable by prenatal ultrasonography.     

Resilience of epilithic algal assemblages in atmospherically and experimentally acidified boreal lakes

Algal assemblages can be highly responsive to environmental changes in recovering acidified lakes. We compared epilithic algal assemblages in boreal lakes during chemical recovery from atmospheric (Killarney Park, Ontario) and experimental (Lake 302S, Experimental Lakes Area, Ontario) acidification to assess the impact of spatial and temporal scale of severe acidification on taxonomic resilience (i.e. recovery rate). Resilience was measured as the distance traveled by lakes in ordination space during pH recovery based on canonical correspondence analysis. Resilience was relatively negligible in the Killarney lakes, suggesting that eight years of experimental acidification in Lake 302S had less impact on biological recovery than did decades of regional acidification. Increases in dissolved organic carbon, dissolved inorganic carbon, and calcium best explained temporal variance of epilithic species abundances in the recovering acidified lakes. In Lake 302S, contrasting trajectories of taxonomic resilience and resistance, i.e. displacement from reference conditions following a perturbation, indicated that ecological factors affecting epilithon differed at corresponding pH levels during recovery and acidification. Our findings reveal that modeling of ecosystem recovery from severe acidification must account for the spatial and temporal scale of the perturbation, and biological delay responses that result in differences between recovery and acidification trajectories.     

Contribution of vehicle emissions from an attached garage to residential indoor air pollution levels

The infiltration of vehicle emissions into a house from the attached garage was studied for 16 homes of differing designs using the same extensively characterized vehicle at each home. Before the in-home measurement program, the cold-start and hot-start tailpipe emissions and hot-soak evaporative emissions from a 1993 Buick Regal were measured using standard vehicle emissions measurement methods. The emissions were chemically characterized for methane, nonmethane hydrocarbons (NMHC), and carbonyl compounds. The in-home measurements occurred over two winter seasons (1997-1998 and 1998-1999) in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada. Samples of indoor air and garage atmosphere were characterized for carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, methane, NMHC, and carbonyl compounds. During the second year, real-time measurements of carbon, carbon dioxide, and total hydrocarbons were made to determine when and for how long the emissions plume infiltrates the house. Chemical mass balance modeling results using 31 NMHC species suggest that between 9 and 71% of the concentrations measured in the house during the hot-soak test and between 13 and 85% of the concentrations measured in the house during the cold-start test could be attributed to vehicle emissions infiltrating from the garage. In contrast, increases in carbonyl compound concentrations caused by the vehicle were difficult to detect above the already significant levels found in the houses.     

Effects of skin and hydraulic fractures on SVE wells

Soil vapor extraction (SVE) systems are intended to cause substantial volumes of air to flow through the subsurface with the purpose of removing volatile contaminants. The effectiveness of SVE can be influenced by any effect that changes the specific gas capacity (discharge as a function of vacuum) of a well. Skins of low permeability material enveloping a well bore are widely recognized to affect the performance of wells used to recover water, natural gas, or petroleum, and skin can also significantly diminish the performance of an SVE well. Skins a few mm thick consisting of material whose gas phase permeability is 0.01 of the formation can reduce the specific gas capacity of an SVE well by factors of 2 to 10 or more. Hydraulic fractures created in the vicinities of shallow wells commonly resemble sand-filled layers shaped like flat-lying disks or gently dipping saucers. The contrast between the gas-phase permeability of the sand in the fracture and that of the formation is particularly important, with significant effects requiring the ratio to be greater than approximately 50. Shallow hydraulic fractures filled with several tenths of m3 of sand in formations that are several orders of magnitude less permeable than that of the enveloping formation should increase specific gas capacity by factors of 10 or more. Field tests of the effects of hydraulic fractures on the performance of SVE were conducted by creating four wells intersecting fractures and a suite of control wells created using conventional methods in silty saprolite. Specific gas capacities ranged over more than an order of magnitude for 10 wells completed within a small area (2 m2) and at the same depth. Specific capacities correlate to the drilling method that was used to create the bore for the well: lowest values occurred in wells drilled with a machine auger, slightly better results were obtained using a Shelby tube, and the best results were obtained from conventional wells bored with a hand auger. Skin factors determined for wells created with a machine auger could be explained by a layer 1 cm thick that has 0.007 times the permeability of the enveloping material, which could readily have been created during the drilling procedure. Specific capacities of wells intersecting hydraulic fractures were 5 to 100 times more than those of conventional wells. The large difference in performance appears to be due in part to the beneficial effects of the fracture, and in part to the detrimental effects of well skin.