Systems analysis and simulation of the NW African marine upwelling region

A temporal and spatial marine upwelling system model is developed for analysis of prominent biological and physical system interactions which result in obserbed nutrient distribution patterns in the northwest African coastal upwelling system near 21° N. The model is composed of a physical submodel describing a two-dimensional circulation pattern, and a series of biological submodels describing nutrient regeneration.Model results were qualitatively consistent with nutrient distributions observed during an upwelling event in the 1974 JOINT-I study area. Simulated silicate distribution patterns suggest that silica dissolution parameter estimates reported for the northwest African region may represent local conditions, but are likely overestimates at a system level of resolution. Sensitivity analysis results identify grazing threshold level as the primary regulator of model grazing stress. Paucity of herbivorous nekton grazing suggests that primarily phytophagous grazing habit for clupeoid fishes is unlikely in the northwest African upwelling area.     

A stochastic simulation model of brown shrimp (Penaeus aztecus ives) growth,movement, and survival in Galveston Bay,Texas

A stochastic simulation model of brown shrimp (Penaeus aztecus Ives) population dynamics in Galveston Bay, Texas, is described, validated, and used to evaluate the effects of management alternatives and changing environmental conditions on shrimp dynamics. The model is composed of submodels representing: (1) recruitment, (2) growth, (3) natural mortality, (4) fishing mortality, and (5) emigration of brown shrimp. The model predicts significant changes in total annual harvest from the food shrimp, bait, and recreational fisheries resulting from (1) closure of the bay system to all fishing except during the spring and fall open seasons, (2) two-week postponement of the opening and closing of the open seasons for the food shrimp fishery, (3) a 2.5°C increase and (4) a 2.5°C decrease in mean water temperature, (5) an 80% increase and (6) an 80% decrease in fishing effort. No significant change in the total annual harvest is predicted when the food shrimp fishing season is extended from May 15 through December 15. Sensitivity analysis suggests that field experimentation designed specifically to test the hypothesis of a 60-day time lag between brown shrimp recruitment into the bays and exposure to the fishery should receive high priority. Simulation results are discussed within a management framework.     

Crop residue removal and fertilizer N: Effects on soil organic carbon in a long-term crop rotation experiment on a Udic Boroll

Biofuels can be produced by converting cellulose in crop residues to ethanol. This has recently been viewed as a potential supplement to non-renewable energy sources, especially in the Americas. A 50-yr field experiment was analyzed to determine the influence of (i) removing approximately 22% of the above-ground wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) residue each crop year, and (ii) N and P fertilization on soil carbon (C) in the top 15 cm depth of a fallow–wheat–wheat (F–W–W) rotation. The study was conducted from 1958 to 2007 on a clay soil, at Indian Head in sub-humid southeast Saskatchewan, Canada. Soil C concentrations and bulk densities were measured in the 0–7.5 and 7.5–15 cm depths in 1987, 1996 and 2007 and soil C changes were related to C inputs estimated from straw and root yields calculated from regressions relating these to grain yields. Two soil organic matter models [the Campbell model and the Introductory Carbon Balance Model (ICBM)] were also used to simulate and predict the effects of the treatments on soil C change over time, and to estimate likely soil C change if 50% or 95% of above-ground residues were harvested each crop year. Crop residue removal reduced cumulative C inputs from straw and roots over the 50-yr experiment by only 13%, and this did not significantly (P > 0.05) reduce soil C throughout the experiment duration. However, after 50 yr of applying N fertilizer at recommended rates, soil C increased significantly by about 3 Mg ha⁻¹ compared to the non-fertilized treatment. The simulated effect of removing 50% and 95% of the above-ground residues suggested that removing 50% of the straw would likely have a detectable effect on the soil C, while removing 95% of the straw certainly would. Measurements and model simulations suggest that adoption of no-tillage without proper fertilization will not increase soil C. Although it appears that a modest amount of residue may be safely removed from these Udic Borolls (Black Chernozems) without a measurable effect on soil C, this would only be feasible if accompanied by appropriate fertility management.