Elements of a Predictive Model for Determining Beach Closures on a Real Time Basis: The Case of 63rd Street Beach Chicago

Data on hydrometeorological conditions and E. coli concentration were simultaneously collected on 57 occasions during the summer of 2000 at 63rd Street Beach, Chicago, Illinois. The data were used to identify and calibrate a statistical regression model aimed at predicting when the bacterial concentration of the beach water was above or below the level considered safe for full body contact. A wide range of hydrological, meteorological, and water quality variables were evaluated as possible predictive variables. These included wind speed and direction, incoming solar radiation (insolation), various time frames of rainfall, air temperature, lake stage and wave height, and water temperature, specific conductance, dissolved oxygen, pH, and turbidity. The best-fit model combined real-time measurements of wind direction and speed (onshore component of resultant wind vector), rainfall, insolation, lake stage, water temperature and turbidity to predict the geometric mean E. coli concentration in the swimming zone of the beach. The model, which contained both additive and multiplicative (interaction) terms, accounted for 71% of the observed variability in the log E. coli concentrations. A comparison between model predictions of when the beach should be closed and when the actual bacterial concentrations were above or below the 235 cfu 100 ml(-1) threshold value, indicated that the model accurately predicted openings versus closures 88% of the time.     

Performance of conventional remedial technology for treatment of MTBE and benzene at UST sites in Kansas

Groundwater at most underground storage tank (UST) spills sites in Kansas contains both methyl tertiary butyl ethylene (MTBE) and benzene, and both contaminants must be effectively treated to close the sites. Soil vacuum extraction, air sparging, and excavation are the most common treatment technologies in Kansas. To compare the relative performance of these conventional remedial technologies for treating MTBE as compared to benzene, 66 sites in the Kansas UST Trust Fund were identified that had initial concentrations of both MTBE and benzene above the reporting limit of 1 μg/L, and that had at least two rounds of analytical data. Sites were excluded from the comparison if the monitoring wells had free product. Of the 66 sites, 15 had met the clean‐up goal for benzene, and 50 had met the goal for MTBE. The extent of treatment for MTBE and benzene was calculated as the ratio of the highest concentration in any well at the site in the most recent round of sampling to the maximum concentration in any well at the site in the previous rounds of sampling. The extent of treatment was greater for MTBE (statistically significant at p = 0.032). The geometric mean of the extent of treatment in the 66 sites was 0.057 for MTBE, compared to 0.14 for benzene. In Kansas, conventional technologies removed MTBE from the source areas of groundwater plumes at least as effectively as they removed benzene. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Capital structure and asset utilization: the case of resource intensive industries

This research studies the relationship between the capital structure of a firm and its asset utilization rate in resource intensive industries. We study this issue from both private and public policy perspectives. From a private perspective, it's conceivable that a positive relationship may exist because a company is trying to increase its use of debt to effect a more efficient utilization of its assets. However, from a public policy perspective, finding a positive relationship between asset utilization and debt levels in natural resource sensitive industries may signal a sub-optimal exploitation of natural resources when debt levels rise. This research examines measures of leverage and asset utilization in firms from the mining, oil, and timber industries to determine whether the behavior alleged in the PALCO/MAXXAM case (an increased cutting rate to pay off junk bond financing) has been observed more systematically. We observe a positive relationship between leverage and asset utilization in all three industries when leverage is calculated using book value measures. When market value measures are used, this positive relationship no longer holds in the mining industry. Possible explanations for these results are offered.     

A New Open‐Access HUC‐8 Based Downscaled CMIP‐5 Climate Model Forecast Dataset for the Conterminous United States

Watershed‐scale hydrologic simulation models generally require climate data inputs including precipitation and temperature. These climate inputs can be derived from downscaled global climate simulations which have the potential to drive runoff forecasts at the scale of local watersheds. While a simulation designed to drive a local watershed model would ideally be constructed at an appropriate scale, global climate simulations are, by definition, arbitrarily determined large rectangular spatial grids. This paper addresses the technical challenge of making climate simulation model results readily available in the form of downscaled datasets that can be used for watershed scale models. Specifically, we present the development and deployment of a new Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) based database which has been prepared through a scaling and weighted averaging process for use at the level of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC)‐8 watersheds. The resulting dataset includes 2,106 virtual observation sites (watershed centroids) each with 698 associated time series datasets representing average monthly temperature and precipitation between 1950 and 2099 based on 234 unique climate model simulations. The new dataset is deployed on a HydroServer and distributed using WaterOneFlow web services in the WaterML format. These methods can be adapted for downscaled General Circulation Model (GCM) results for specific drainage areas smaller than HUC‐8. Two example use cases for the dataset also are presented.     

Testing the scoping phase of a bottom-up planning guide designed to support Australian Indigenous rangers manage the impacts of climate change on cultural heritage sites

Since the early 1990s archaeologists have suggested archaeological and cultural heritage sites (cultural sites) will face major challenges from anthropogenic climate change. While techniques to manage such impacts are emerging, no planning tools exist for bottom-up, community-based management of the issue. This paper forms part of an overarching research project that aims to fill this gap by developing a bottom-up planning guide (the Guide). The paper tests the first of the proposed Guide’s five phases: the scoping phase. It presents the results of workshops conducted with two Australian Indigenous rangers groups. While existing studies document Indigenous peoples’ perceptions of climate change in general, none have focussed on their perceptions of impacts on cultural heritage sites. Here, Indigenous rangers related strong perceptions of particular climate change impacts on specific cultural sites in particular bio-regions. While the rangers were actively engaged with sites, they felt site management should be extended in the face of additional threats from climate change. Rangers were able to nominate a preferred methodological approach, based on a risk analysis of biophysical hazards, as well as local adaptive capacity building in the face of governance challenges. Various barriers to adaptation planning and resource limitations were identified but these were not regarded as insurmountable in terms of the current project. Testing of the scoping phase of the Guide suggested rangers had a strong organisational capacity to achieve practical adaptation results.     

Demonstrating the In Situ Biodegradation Potential of Phenol Using Bio‐Sep® Bio‐Traps® and Stable Isotope Probing

The effect of phenol concentration on phenol biodegradation at an industrial site in the south of Wales, United Kingdom, was investigated using standard Bio‐Sep^® Bio‐Traps^® and Bio‐Traps^® coupled with stable isotope probing (SIP). Unlike many ¹³C‐amendments used in SIP studies (such as hydrocarbons) that physically and reversibly adsorb to the activated carbon component of the Bio‐Sep^® beads, phenol is known to irreversibly chemisorb to activated carbon. Bio‐Traps^® were deployed for 32 days in nine site groundwater monitoring wells representing a wide range of phenol concentrations. Bio‐Traps^® amended with ¹³C‐phenol were deployed together with non‐amended Bio‐Traps® in three wells. Quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) analysis of Bio‐Traps^® post‐deployment indicated an inhibitory effect of increasing phenol concentration on both total eubacteria and aerobic phenol‐utilizing bacteria as represented by the concentration of phenol hydroxylase gene. Despite the chemisorption of phenol to the Bio‐Sep^® beads, activated carbon stable isotope analysis showed incorporation of ¹³C into biomass and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in each SIP Bio‐Trap^® indicating that chemisorbed amendments are bioavailable. However, there was a clear effect of phenol concentration on ¹³C incorporation in both biomass and DIC confirming phenol inhibition. These results suggest that physical reductions of the phenol concentrations in some areas of the plume will be required before biodegradation of phenol can proceed at a reasonable rate. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Use of ethylenediurea (EDU) to ameliorate ozone effects on purple coneflower (Echinacea purpurea)

Purple coneflower plants (Echinacea purpurea) were placed into open-top chambers (OTCs) for 6 and 12 weeks in 2003 and 2004, respectively, and exposed to charcoal-filtered air (CF) or twice-ambient (2x) ozone (O3) in 2003, and to CF, 2x or non-filtered (NF), ambient air in 2004. Plants were treated with ethylenediurea (EDU) weekly as a foliar spray. Foliar symptoms were observed in >95% of the plants in 2x-treated OTCs in both years. Above-ground biomass was not affected by 2x treatments in 2003, but root and total-plant biomass decreased in 2004. As a result of higher concentrations of select cell wall constituents (% ADF, NDF and lignin) nutritive quality was lower for plants exposed to 2x-O3 in 2003 and 2004 (26% and 17%, respectively). Significant EDU x O3 interactions for concentrations of cell wall constituents in 2003 indicated that EDU ameliorated O3 effects on nutritive quality. Interactions observed in 2004 were inconsistent.     

Remaking the world in our own image: vulnerability,resilience and adaptation as historical discourses

A warming climate and less predictable weather patterns, as well as an expanding urban infrastructure susceptible to geophysical hazards, make the world an increasingly dangerous place, even for those living in high‐income countries. It is an opportune moment, therefore, from the vantage point of the second decade of the twenty‐first century, to review the terms and concepts that have been employed regularly over the past 50 years to assess risk and to measure people's exposure to such events in the light of the wider geopolitical context. In particular, it is useful to examine ‘vulnerability’, ‘resilience’, and ‘adaptation’, the principal theoretical concepts that, from an historical perspective, have dominated disaster studies since the end of the Second World War. In addition, it is valuable to enquire as to the extent to which such discourses were ideological products of their time, which sought to explain societies and their environments from the stance of competing conceptual frameworks.     

Behavioral consequences of exotic host plant adoption and the differing roles of male harassment on female movement in two checkerspot butterflies

Herbivorous insects may evolve convergent behaviors when independent adoption of a shared novel host plant places populations in environmental conditions that diverge from the ancestral state. We investigated the behavioral consequences of adopting Plantago lanceolata, an exotic species to North America, in populations of Euphydryas p. phaeton and Euphydryas editha taylori, on the east and west coasts of North America. Activity budgets and short-term movements suggested that innate species tendencies exert a greater impact on behavior than adoption of the same exotic host plant. However, female E. phaeton from a Plantago-dependent population spent more time inspecting host plants than females from a population dependent on the native host plant, Chelone glabra. Both checkerspot species had similar diffusion coefficients (D) regardless of host plant association. But, E. e. taylori step-lengths appeared bimodal and power law distributed while E. phaeton step-lengths were unimodal and best fit by an exponential distribution. We attribute this bimodal step-length distribution to the persistent harassment of courting males which induces a “long-distance” evasive flight in otherwise sedentary E. e. taylori females. In contrast, the longer distance step-lengths of E. phaeton were associated with the inspection of oviposition plants. These two checkerspot species appear to move greater distances across the reproductive landscape with contrasting motivational states that could lead to either intimate mapping (E. phaeton) or coarse mapping (E. e. taylori) of host resources.     

Mapping trees outside forests using high-resolution aerial imagery: a comparison of pixel- and object-based classification approaches

Discrete trees and small groups of trees in nonforest settings are considered an essential resource around the world and are collectively referred to as trees outside forests (ToF). ToF provide important functions across the landscape, such as protecting soil and water resources, providing wildlife habitat, and improving farmstead energy efficiency and aesthetics. Despite the significance of ToF, forest and other natural resource inventory programs and geospatial land cover datasets that are available at a national scale do not include comprehensive information regarding ToF in the United States. Additional ground-based data collection and acquisition of specialized imagery to inventory these resources are expensive alternatives. As a potential solution, we identified two remote sensing-based approaches that use free high-resolution aerial imagery from the National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) to map all tree cover in an agriculturally dominant landscape. We compared the results obtained using an unsupervised per-pixel classifier (independent component analysis—[ICA]) and an object-based image analysis (OBIA) procedure in Steele County, Minnesota, USA. Three types of accuracy assessments were used to evaluate how each method performed in terms of: (1) producing a county-level estimate of total tree-covered area, (2) correctly locating tree cover on the ground, and (3) how tree cover patch metrics computed from the classified outputs compared to those delineated by a human photo interpreter. Both approaches were found to be viable for mapping tree cover over a broad spatial extent and could serve to supplement ground-based inventory data. The ICA approach produced an estimate of total tree cover more similar to the photo-interpreted result, but the output from the OBIA method was more realistic in terms of describing the actual observed spatial pattern of tree cover.