Incorporating Uncertainty Into the Ranking of SPARROW Model Nutrient Yields From Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin Watersheds1

Abstract: Excessive loads of nutrients transported by tributary rivers have been linked to hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico. Management efforts to reduce the hypoxic zone in the Gulf of Mexico and improve the water quality of rivers and streams could benefit from targeting nutrient reductions toward watersheds with the highest nutrient yields delivered to sensitive downstream waters. One challenge is that most conventional watershed modeling approaches (e.g., mechanistic models) used in these management decisions do not consider uncertainties in the predictions of nutrient yields and their downstream delivery. The increasing use of parameter estimation procedures to statistically estimate model coefficients, however, allows uncertainties in these predictions to be reliably estimated. Here, we use a robust bootstrapping procedure applied to the results of a previous application of the hybrid statistical/mechanistic watershed model SPARROW (Spatially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes) to develop a statistically reliable method for identifying “high priority” areas for management, based on a probabilistic ranking of delivered nutrient yields from watersheds throughout a basin. The method is designed to be used by managers to prioritize watersheds where additional stream monitoring and evaluations of nutrient‐reduction strategies could be undertaken. Our ranking procedure incorporates information on the confidence intervals of model predictions and the corresponding watershed rankings of the delivered nutrient yields. From this quantified uncertainty, we estimate the probability that individual watersheds are among a collection of watersheds that have the highest delivered nutrient yields. We illustrate the application of the procedure to 818 eight‐digit Hydrologic Unit Code watersheds in the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River basin by identifying 150 watersheds having the highest delivered nutrient yields to the Gulf of Mexico. Highest delivered yields were from watersheds in the Central Mississippi, Ohio, and Lower Mississippi River basins. With 90% confidence, only a few watersheds can be reliably placed into the highest 150 category; however, many more watersheds can be removed from consideration as not belonging to the highest 150 category. Results from this ranking procedure provide robust information on watershed nutrient yields that can benefit management efforts to reduce nutrient loadings to downstream coastal waters, such as the Gulf of Mexico, or to local receiving streams and reservoirs.     

Conversion of a Missouri River Dam and Reservoir to a Sustainable System: Sediment Management1

Abstract: A present and future challenge for water resources engineers is to extend the useful life of our dams and reservoirs. Ongoing reservoir sedimentation in impoundments must be addressed; sedimentation in many reservoirs already limits project benefits and effective project life. Sustainability requires that incoming sediment be moved downstream past the impounding dam. We use Lewis and Clark Lake, the most downstream of the six Missouri River main stem reservoirs, to demonstrate how a reservoir in advanced stages of its project life could be converted to a sustainable system with local benefits exceeding costs by a factor of 1.5. Full consideration of benefits would further enhance project justification. The proposed strategy involves four phases that will take about 50 years to complete. Cost estimates for this potential project range from the quantitative to the plausible, but it is clear that the results justify a full engineering, environmental, and economic study of this model project. If implemented, the project will create scientific knowledge and develop technologies useful for achieving sustainability at many other reservoirs in the Mississippi River basin and beyond.     

Development of a Quantitative Pasture Phosphorus Management Tool Using the SWAT Model1

Abstract: Assessment tools to evaluate phosphorus loss from agricultural lands allow conservation planners to evaluate the impact of management decisions on water quality. Available tools to predict phosphorus loss from agricultural fields are either: (1) qualitative indices with limited applicability to address offsite water quality standards, or (2) models which are prohibitively complex for application by most conservation planners. The purpose of this research was to develop a simple interface for a comprehensive hydrologic/water quality model to allow its usage by farmers and conservation planners. The Pasture Phosphorus Management (PPM) Calculator was developed to predict average annual phosphorus (P) losses from pastures under a variety of field conditions and management options. PPM Calculator is a vastly simplified interface for the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model that requires no knowledge of SWAT by the user. PPM Calculator was validated using 33 months of data on four pasture fields in northwestern Arkansas. This tool has been extensively applied in the Lake Eucha/Spavinaw Basin in northeastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas. PPM Calculator allows conservation planners to take advantage of the predictive capacity of a comprehensive hydrologic water quality model typically reserved for use by hydrologists and engineers. This research demonstrates the applicability of existing water quality models in the development of user friendly P management tools.     

Environmental Exposure of Aquatic and Terrestrial Biota to Triclosan and Triclocarban1

Abstract: The synthetic biocides triclosan (5‐chloro‐2‐(2,4‐dichlorophenoxy)phenol) and triclocarban (3,4,4′‐trichlorocarbanilide) are routinely added to a wide array of antimicrobial personal care products and consumer articles. Both compounds can persist in the environment and exhibit toxicity toward a number of biological receptors. Recent reports of toxicological effects in wildlife, human cell cultures, and laboratory animals have heightened the interest in the occurrence of these biocide and related toxic effects. The present study aimed to summarize published environmental concentrations of biocides and contrast them with toxicity threshold values of susceptible organisms. Environmental occurrences and toxicity threshold values span more than six orders of magnitude in concentration. The highest biocide levels, measured in the mid parts‐per‐million range, were determined to occur in aquatic sediments and in municipal biosolids destined for land application. Crustacea and algae were identified as the most sensitive species, susceptible to adverse effects from biocide exposures in the parts‐per‐trillion range. An overlap of environmental concentrations and toxicity threshold values was noted for these more sensitive organisms, suggesting potential adverse ecological effects in aquatic environments. Affirmative evidence for this is lacking, however, since studies examining environmental occurrences of biocides vis‐à‐vis the health and diversity of aquatic species have not yet been conducted.     

Fundamental Moral Attitudes to Animals and Their Role in Judgment: An Empirical Model to Describe Fundamental Moral Attitudes to Animals and Their Role in Judgment on the Culling of Healthy Animals During an Animal Disease Epidemic

In this paper, we present and defend the theoretical framework of an empirical model to describe people’s fundamental moral attitudes (FMAs) to animals, the stratification of FMAs in society and the role of FMAs in judgment on the culling of healthy animals in an animal disease epidemic. We used philosophical animal ethics theories to understand the moral basis of FMA convictions. Moreover, these theories provide us with a moral language for communication between animal ethics, FMAs, and public debates. We defend that FMA is a two-layered concept. The first layer consists of deeply felt convictions about animals. The second layer consists of convictions derived from the first layer to serve as arguments in a debate on animal issues. In a debate, the latter convictions are variable, depending on the animal issue in a specific context, time, and place. This variability facilitates finding common ground in an animal issue between actors with opposing convictions.     

Anoxic-aerobic treatment of the liquid fraction of cattle manure

Cattle manure from a dairy farm was treated in order to reduce its pollution potential. The manure came from a farm with 120 cows kept in stables in a free stall barn. As pretreatment, the manure is usually filtered on the farm using a screw press separator with a 0.5 mm mesh. Approximately 70% of the total filtered volume passes through the screen, thus constituting the liquid fraction. This fraction, with a composition of around 64,500 mg COD/l, 5770 mg total-N/l and 800 mg total-P/l, was subjected to centrifugation followed by a two-step biological treatment (anoxic-aerobic) to reduce organic matter (COD), nitrogen and phosphorus compounds. Centrifugation led to the following removal efficiencies: 35% total solids, 60% COD, 75% total phosphorus and 20% total nitrogen (mainly organic nitrogen). With the subsequent anoxic-aerobic treatment, average removal efficiencies of 85% for COD, 90% for total phosphorus and 75% for total nitrogen were achieved.     

Fast firing of tiles containing paper mill sludge, glass cullet and clay

The paper describes results obtained in the development of a previous research. We study here, in fast firing, the sintering behaviour and measure some properties of tiles containing a mixture of 60 wt% of paper mill sludge and 40 wt% of glass cullet. The behaviour of this material is compared to those displayed by materials obtained by the same mixture added with 10, 20 and 30 wt% of a natural red clay. In parallel, the same properties are measured also on a reference blend, which is presently used to produce commercial tiles. We show that powders containing 60 wt% of paper sludge and 40 wt% of glass cullet to which 30 wt% of clay is added give rise to materials that display a stable sintering process and have good hardness and strength and therefore could be used for the industrial production of tiles.     

Waste management from pulp and paper production in the European Union

Eleven million tonnes of waste are produced yearly by the European pulp and paper industry, of which 70% originates from the production of deinked recycled paper. Wastes are very diverse in composition and consist of rejects, different types of sludges and ashes in mills having on-site incineration treatment. The production of pulp and paper from virgin pulp generates less waste but the waste has similar properties to waste from the production of deinked pulp, although with less inorganics. Due to legislation and increased taxes, landfills are quickly being eliminated as a final destination for wastes in Europe, and incineration with energy recovery is becoming the main waste recovery method. Other options such as pyrolysis, gasification, land spreading, composting and reuse as building material are being applied, although research is still needed for optimization of the processes. Due to the large volumes of waste generated, the high moisture content of the waste and the changing waste composition as a result of process conditions, recovery methods are usually expensive and their environmental impact is still uncertain. For this reason, it is necessary to continue research on different applications of wastes, while taking into account the environmental and economic factors of these waste treatments.     

The contemporary cement cycle of the United States

A country-level stock and flow model for cement, an important construction material, was developed based on a material flow analysis framework. Using this model, the contemporary cement cycle of the United States was constructed by analyzing production, import, and export data for different stages of the cement cycle. The United States currently supplies approximately 80% of its cement consumption through domestic production and the rest is imported. The average annual net addition of in-use new cement stock over the period 2000–2004 was approximately 83 million metric tons and amounts to 2.3 tons per capita of concrete. Nonfuel carbon dioxide emissions (42 million metric tons per year) from the calcination phase of cement manufacture account for 62% of the total 68 million tons per year of cement production residues. The end-of-life cement discards are estimated to be 33 million metric tons per year, of which between 30% and 80% is recycled. A significant portion of the infrastructure in the United States is reaching the end of its useful life and will need to be replaced or rehabilitated; this could require far more cement than might be expected from economic forecasts of demand for cement.