Analysis of two-way layout of count data with negative binomial variation

A number of methods has been proposed for dealing with single-factor or factorial experiments when the requirements for performing the normal theory analysis of variance procedure are not satisfied. This paper suggests the use of the likelihood ratio statistic for testing the main effects and the interaction between the factors in two-way layout of count data following negative binomial distributions with a common dispersion parameter. The likelihood ratio statistic for testing the equality of the dispersion parameters of several groups of count data is also derived. The methods is illustrated by an example concerning the study of spatial and temporal variation of bacterial counts.     

Spatial analysis and mapping the annual mean concentrations of acidity and major ions in precipitation over the United Kingdom in 1986

The composition of precipitation is being monitored in collectors sited throughout the United Kingdom. In the first year, 1986, hydrogen ion, nitrate, ammonium and non-marine sulphate were measured in samples from 47 sites and annual mean concentrations determined. Spatial analysis based on Regionalized Variable Theory revealed autocorrelation in all four ions and reasonable bounded models were fitted to the sample variogram of all four. These were then used to estimate values of a fine mesh grid by simple kriging, and the estimates were then contoured. The estimation errors were similarly mapped, and both sets of maps are presented. The maps show that concentrations of these ions are greatest in eastern parts of the country, as expected from consideration of European emissions and weather patterns. For the first time estimation errors were also mapped and show how the network could be improved.     

Atmospheric haze: Its sources and effects on visibility in rural areas of the continental United States

Spatial and temporal trends in visibility are examined at a national level. It is shown that visibility is impaired in all antional parks approximately 90% of the time, and that eastern visibilities are about 10 times lower than western visibilities. Measurement of atmospheric particulates that affect visibility shows that sulfates associated with man-made emissions of sulfur dioxide are the single largest contributor to visibility reduction, except in the northwestern United States, where organic aerosols contribute significantly. In the East, coal fired power plants along the Ohio River Vallery contribute the most SO₂, while oil refining activities and other industrial sources in southern California, copper smelters in southern Arizona, and industrial activity along the Gulf Coast of Mexico contribute most of the SO₂, and thus sulfates, in the West.Contribution from Fourth World Wilderness Congress-Acid Rain Symposium, Denver (Estes Park), Colorado, September 11–18, 1987.The assumptions, findings, conclusions, judgments and views presented herein are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as necessarily representing official National Park Service policies.     

Organochlorine contaminants in seabird eggs from the Pacific coast of Canada, 1971–1986

Eggs were collected from seven seabird species at colonies on the British Columbia coast from 1983 to 1986 and analyzed for organochlorine contaminants. Total PCB levels (wet weight) were highest in double-crested cormorants (Phalacrocorax auritus) from the Fraser estuary (2.91 mg kg^-1) and the Strait of Georgia (3.79 mg kg^-1). Highest DDE levels were in fork-tailed storm-petrels (Oceanodroma furcata) from the Queen Charlotte Islands (1.68 mg kg^-1). Organochlorine levels were generally lower in eggs from the mid 1980s than in those collected in the early 1970s. Organochlorine levels in Pacific alcids and hydrobatids foraging in offshore locations were compared to those in the same or ecologically similar species from the Canadian Atlantic coast. DDT- and HCH-related compounds were higher in Pacific populations while levels of dieldrin, oxychlordane, and HCB were generally lower. With the exception of -HCH, levels of all measured organochlorines were lower in cormorants breeding in the Fraser River estuary than in cormorants from the St. Lawrence River estuary on the Atlantic coast.     

Robust graphical methods for diagnosing trend in irregularly spaced water quality time series

Graphical methods can play an important role in the reliable assessment of trends in typically ill behaved river quality data series both as diagnostic tools and as visual corroborative evidence when assumptions required for formal statistical tests are not met. Robust, graphically-oriented trend diagnosis procedures are presented for data series characterized by nonnormal populations, uneven time spacing, nonmonotonic trend and other factors which can create serious problems for standard parametric time series methods. Cleveland's robust locally weighted regression (RLWR) developed for investigating nonlinearity in x-y scatterplots is adapted as a robust/resistant smoothing filter for the analysis of irregular time series comprising quantitative observations. Low powered RLWR trend lines reveal temporally local phenomena, e.g. abrupt jumps (often associated with point source impacts) and periodicities, while higher powered RLWR yields smooth lines characterizing medium and longer term trends. Simple variants of Tukey smoothing concepts are developed for series with censored observations. Applications to Ontario river quality series reveal that graphical evidence is frequently sufficient to obviate the need for formal trend testing. The methods are generally applicable to most time series.     

Information needs for marine pollution studies

Information needed for the resolution of environmental problems is a commodity with an economic value. The minimum necessary information implies minimal costs. The formulation of the information is considered for the case of biocides that can disrupt marine ecosystems.     

Organochlorine and mercury residues in Swainson's and ferruginous hawk eggs collected in North and South Dakota, 1974–79

Residues of organochlorine pesticides, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and mercury were measured in eggs of Swainson's hawks (Buteo swainsoni) and ferruginous hawks (B. regalis) collected in North and South Dakota during 1974–79. DDE was the most common compound detected in the eggs, but residues were below levels known to have adverse effects on reproduction. Other organochlorine compounds and mercury were found at low levels. Eggs of ferruginous hawks tended to contain more compounds with higher residues than eggs of Swainson's hawks.     

The characteristics of size distribution of suspended particulates in the air for sulphates and selected metals in different areas and seasons

The characteristics of the distribution of particles by size were investigated for sulphates and selected metals (Pb, Fe, Mn, and Cu) in the air in two urban and an industrial area during the winter and summer periods using an Andersen cascade impactor.In the case of metals, but not sulphates, the character of the area affected the value of mass median diameter. Lowest values were obtained in a sparsely populated urban area, whereas in a densely populated urban area and in the industrial area the values were higher.In the industrial area a high correlation coefficient was found between sulphate and manganese, and between sulphate and lead, as well as a high value of the equivalent Mn²⁺/SO _inf4 ^sup2- ratio for the total sample. It may therefore be assumed that in the industrial area manganese produces a catalytic effect on SO₂ conversion to sulphate. Among the investigated metals lead stands out as a dominant cation which binds to the sulphate ion in the industrial and densely populated areas.     

An application of circular-linear correlation analysis to the relationship between Freon concentration and wind direction in Woods Hole,Massachusetts

Two statistical tests for correlation between a circular variate and a linear variate are presented. The tests are applied to a small data set concerning Freon-12 concentration and wind direction in Woods Hole, Massachusetts during the summer of 1987. A significant correlation is found. Further analysis suggests that this directional effect is related to onshore Freon-12 release.Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Contribution Number 6750