Impacts of interannual climate variability on past and future forest composition

Numerous analyses of the possible impacts of future climatic changes on tree species composition have been published for both lowland and high-elevation forests. Most of these studies were based on the application of forest "gap" models, and the vast majority of them considered only changes in the average of climatic parameters over time. In this study, we use a unique data set on reconstructed past climatic variations to analyse forest dynamics simulated by the forest gap model ForClim. This analysis forms the basis for a systematic exploration of the ecological effects of changing means vs. changing variability of climate on central European forests. A reconstruction of historical climate covering the last 470 years in the Swiss lowlands (ClimIndex) is extrapolated to a transect across the alpine (cold) treeline and used to simulate the influence of climate variations on the time scale of decades on forest biomass and tree species composition at both sites. While the simulation at the low-elevation site shows little sensitivity to climate variations, the results from upper subalpine forests suggest that two major dieback events would have occurred at elevations above the current but below the climatic tree line, induced by clusters of exceptionally cold summers. The results are in agreement with available dendrochronological data and with documentary evidence on massive negative impacts on flora and fauna at high elevations during these periods. We conclude that ForClim is capable of capturing the effects on tree population dynamics of climate variability at these sites as reconstructed from the ClimIndex record. A factorial design is used to address the sensitivity of ForClim to changes of the long-term averages vs. changes of the variability of monthly temperature and precipitation data. To this end, the simulated tree species composition of near-natural forests is examined along a climate gradient in Europe. The results indicate that there are three types of forest response: (1) little sensitivity to both kinds of change, (2) strong sensitivity to changes in the means, but little sensitivity to changing variability, and (3) strong sensitivity to changing variability at least in parts of the examined climate space. Half of the cases investigated fall under the third category, suggesting that emphasis should be placed on also assessing the sensitivity of ecosystems to future changes in climate variability rather than on changes of average values alone. Electronic Publication     

Modelling Change in Ground Vegetation Response to Acid and Nitrogen Pollution, Climate Change and Forest Management at in Sweden 1500–2100 a.d.

The ForSAFE model, designed for modelling biogeochemical cycles (water, acidity, base cation, nitrogen and carbon) in terrestrial ecosystems, was modified with a vegetation response module (VEG), incorporating the effects of: nitrogen pollution, acidification, soil moisture, temperature, wind chill exposure, light and shading by trees, grazing by animals, competition between plants, above ground for light and below ground for water and nutrients. The model calculates the response of number ground vegetation plant groups. The integrated model was tested and validated at integrated level II forest monitoring sites across Sweden, four have been shown here, and used to assess the effect of acidification and nitrogen pollution in relation to factors such as climate change, forest management and changing grazing pressure. The response functions have been derived from single-factor experiments and integrated through the model structure for use on whole systems. The tests with the model suggest that the ground vegetation composition is reasonably well predicted, that much research remains before the model is fully tested and operational, and that the model may serve as a tool for assessing impacts of climate change, acid rain and forest management on plant biodiversity in forested areas.     

Metals and selenium in wild animals from Norwegian areas close to Russian nickel smelters

This paper reports the concentrations of metals (Al, As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Ni, Pb, and/or Zn) and selenium (Se) in kidney and/or liver samples from capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus), willow ptarmigan (Lagopus lagopus), hares (Lepus timidus), common shrews (Sorex araneus) and grey-sided voles (Clethrionomus rufocanus) from the Norwegian areas most heavily contaminated by pollutants from the Russian smelters on the Kola peninsula. In addition to comparing areas that differed in expected pollution rate within Sør-Varanger, comparisons are drawn with reference data from other parts of Norway. The relatively highest levels of metals were found for Cu and Ni in the sub-area most heavily exposed to pollution from the smelters. Also the highest Cr concentrations were found in the areas closest to the smelters. In this study, there is evidence for a direct link between increased metal concentrations in wild animals and pollution from the Russian smelters for Cu and Ni and to some extent for Cr. relatively high concentration of Hg and slight increases in Pb are also documented, but regional differences within Sør-Varanger indicate no direct relationship to the Russian smelters. No samples showed concentrations of any of the analysed metals in excess of the limits where negative effects on animals can be measured.     

New Evidence for the presence of arsenocholine in shrimps (Pandalus borealis) by use of pyrolysis gas chromatography — atomic absorption spectrometry/mass spectrometry

An analytical method for the structure elucidation of quarternary organoarsenic compounds in trace amounts in fish and crustaceans has been developed in this laboratory. The two major organoarsenicals found in shrimps have been separated by ion-exchange chromatography and their stucture has been studied by the use of pyrolysis gas chromatography. Their degradation in the pyrolyzer unit has been studied by the use of atomic absorption spectrophotometer or mass spectrometer as detectors. A comparison of the analytical data of these substances and data from synthetic reference substances show complete agreement. The structures of reference compounds have been confirmed by use of nuclear magnetic resonance spectrometry and fast atom bombardment (FAB) mass spectrometry. It is demonstrated that both of the organoarsenic compounds in shrimps have a trimethylarsonio moiety e.g. the compounds have a quarternary structure. Furthermore, the more basic organoarsenic compound has a mass spectrometric fragmentation pattern similar to synthetic arsenocholine and acetylarsenocholine. Treatment of arsenobetaine with hot base produces trimethylarsineoxide in a high yield (96%). Arsenocholine, however, remains unchanged during this treatment. Treatment with sodium benzenethiolate does not result in chemical demethylation, which shows that this method together with gas chromatography-mass spectrometry is not feasible for confirmation of its structure.