Politikberatung in der Wissensgesellschaft

Zusammenfassung  In diesem Artikel werden einige zentrale Ergebnisse einer Untersuchung zur wissenschaftlichen Politikberatung dargestellt. Nach einer kurzen Einführung in das Konzept der ‘pluralistischen Wissensgesellschaft’ wird die Analyse-Perspektive erl?utert und das Untersuchungsdesign skizziert. Anhand einer Vergleichsstudie zu umweltpolitischen Beratungssystemen wird dann aufgezeigt, wie die Beratungspraxis aussieht. Schlie?lich werden Gestaltungsoptionen diskutiert. Siehe UWSF 12 (6) 350 (2000) Schlagw?rter: Politikberatung: umweltpolitische Beratung     

The effects of aggregation on the performance of the inverse method and indicators of network analysis

Food webs are usually aggregated into a manageable size for their interpretation and analysis. The aggregation of food web components in trophic or other guilds is often at the choice of the modeler as there is little guidance in the literature as to what biases might be introduced by aggregation decisions. We examined the impacts of the choice of the a priori model on the subsequent estimation of missing flows using the inverse method and on the indices derived from ecological network analysis of both inverse method-derived flows and on the actual values of flows, using the fully determined Sylt-Rømø Bight food web model. We used the inverse method, with the least squares minimization goal function, to estimate ‘missing’ values in the food web flows on 14 aggregation schemes varying in number of compartments and in methods of aggregation. The resultant flows were compared to known values; the performance of the inverse method improved with increasing number of compartments and with aggregation based on both habitat and feeding habits rather than diet similarity. Comparison of network analysis indices of inverse method-derived flows with that of actual flows and the original value for the unaggregated food web showed that the use of both the inverse method and the aggregation scheme affected indices derived from ecological network analysis. The inverse method tended to underestimate the size and complexity of food webs, while an aggregation scheme explained as much variability in some network indices as the difference between inverse-derived and actual flows. However, topological network indices tended to be most robust to both the method of determining flows and to the inverse method. These results suggest that a goal function other than minimization of flows should be used when applying the inverse method to food web models. Comparison of food web models should be done with extreme care when different methodologies are used to estimate unknown flows and to aggregate system components. However, we propose that indices such as relative ascendency and relative redundancy are most valuable for comparing ecosystem models constructed using different methodologies for determining missing flows or for aggregating system components.     

Do metal concentrations in moss from the Zackenberg area,Northeast Greenland,provide a baseline for monitoring?

Purpose  

This study aims at evaluating (a) whether concentrations of a suite of elements in mosses sampled in the arctic region around Zackenberg reflect background concentrations useful for estimating pollution levels in industrialized parts of the northern hemisphere as is attempted, e.g. in the framework of the UNECE ICP Vegetation monitoring programme, and (b) whether there are any influences from Zackenberg research station detectable in these concentrations.     

On the translation of uncertainty from toxicokinetic to toxicodynamic models--the TCDD example

When estimating human health risks from exposure to TCDD using toxicokinetic and toxicodynamic models, it is important to understand how model choice and assumptions necessary for modeling add to the uncertainty of risk estimates. Several toxicokinetic models have been proposed for the risk assessment of dioxins, in particular the elimination kinetics in humans has been a matter of constant debate. For a long time, a simple linear elimination kinetics has been common choice. Thus, it was used for the statistical analysis of the largest occupationally exposed cohort, the German Boehringer cohort. We challenge this assumption by considering, amongst others, a nonlinear modified Michaelis-Menten-type elimination kinetics, the so-called Carrier kinetics. Using the area under the lipid TCDD concentration time curve as dose metrics, we model the time to cancer-related death using the Cox proportional hazards model as toxicodynamic model. This risk assessment set-up was simulated in order to quantify uncertainty of both the dose (TCDD body burden) and the risk estimates, depending on the use of the kinetic model, variations of carcinogenic effect of TCDD and variations of latency period (lag time). If past exposure is estimated assuming a linear elimination kinetics although a Carrier kinetics actually holds, then high exposures in reality will be underestimated through statistical analysis and low exposures will be overestimated, respectively. This bias will carry over on the estimated individual concentration-time curves and the therefrom derived TCDD dose metric values. Using biased dose values when estimating a dose-response relationship will finally lead to biased risk estimates. The extent of bias and the decrease of precision are quantified in selected scenarios through this simulation approach. Our findings are in concordance with recent results in the field of dioxin risk assessment. They also reinforce the general demand for the scheduled uncertainty assessments in risk analyses.     

Urban sediment contamination in a former Hg mining district,Idrija, Slovenia

Road sediments from gully pots of the drainage system and stream sediments from local streams were investigated for the first time in the urban area of Idrija town, the central part of the second largest and strongly contaminated Hg mining district in the world. Hg concentrations in road sediments were lower than in stream sediments. They ranged from 16 to 110 mg/kg (Md = 29 mg/kg) for <0.125 mm particles and from 7 to 125 mg/kg (Md = 35 mg/kg) for <0.04 mm particles, while Hg concentrations in stream sediments ranged from 10 to 610 mg/kg (Md = 95 mg/kg) for <0.125 particles and from 10 to 440 mg/kg (Md = 105 mg/kg) for <0.04 mm particles. High Hg loadings in stream sediments were successfully linked with identified mercury sources (rocks containing mercury ore, areas of former ore roasting sites, ore residue dumps), because they are located in the drainage areas of streams, from which the sediments were collected. Links between Hg loadings in road sediments and identified mercury sources were not recognized. Solid phases of Hg were determined by thermo-desorption technique and are similar for both types of sediments. Results show the occurrence of three different forms: elemental mercury, mercury bound to matrix components and cinnabar. Approximately 50 % of Hg in samples consist of non-cinnabar fractions. This is important, since they are potentially bioavailable. An interesting new discovery according to previous research of environmental media from Idrija area by solid-phase Hg thermo-desorption technique is that elemental mercury was determined in almost all investigated sediments in minor amounts (Md = 3 %).     

Seed predation by Neotropical rain forest mammals increases diversity in seedling recruitment

Seed dispersal and seedling recruitment (the transition of seeds to seedlings) set the spatiotemporal distribution of new individuals in plant communities. Many terrestrial rain forest mammals consume post-dispersal seeds and seedlings, often inflicting density-dependent mortality. In part because of density-dependent mortality, diversity often increases during seedling recruitment, making it a critical stage for species coexistence. We determined how mammalian predators, adult tree abundance, and seed mass interact to affect seedling recruitment in a western Amazonian rain forest. We used exclosures that were selectively permeable to three size classes of mammals: mice and spiny rats (weighing <1 kg), medium-sized rodents (1-12 kg), and large mammals (20-200 kg). Into each exclosure, we placed seeds of 13 tree species and one canopy liana, which varied by an order of magnitude in adult abundance and seed mass. We followed the fates of the seeds and resulting seedlings for at least 17 months. We assessed the effect of each mammalian size class on seed survival, seedling survival and growth, and the density and diversity of the seedlings that survived to the end of the experiment. Surprisingly, large mammals had no detectable effect at any stage of seedling recruitment. In contrast, small- and medium-sized mammals significantly reduced seed survival, seedling survival, and seedling density. Furthermore, predation by small mammals increased species richness on a per-stem basis. This increase in diversity resulted from their disproportionately intense predation on common species and large-seeded species. Small mammals thereby generated a rare-species advantage in seedling recruitment, the critical ingredient for frequency dependence. Predation by small (and to a lesser extent, medium-sized) mammals on seeds and seedlings significantly increases tree species diversity in tropical forests. This is the first long-term study to dissect the effects of various mammalian predators on the recruitment of a diverse set of tree species.     

Large-scale spatial pollution patterns around the North Sea indicated by coastal bird eggs within an EcoQO programme

To categorize the marine environmental health status, the Oslo and Paris commissions have recently formulated Ecological Quality Objectives (EcoQOs) for many ecological features including the contamination of coastal bird eggs with mercury and organochlorines. In this study, we describe spatial and temporal patterns of egg contamination around the North Sea and compared them to the EcoQOs. Concentrations of mercury, polychlorinated biphenyl (??PCB) congeners, dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (??DDT) and derivatives, hexachlorobenzene (HCB) and hexachlorocyclohexane (??HCH) isomers were analysed in two tern species (Sterna hirundo and Sterna paradisaea) and Oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus) eggs collected between 2008 and 2010 in a total of 21 sites in seven countries surrounding the North Sea. Hg, ??PCB and HCB were highest in the southern sites, while ??DDT and ??HCH concentrations were greatest in eggs from the western North Sea and the Elbe estuary. There were rarely any consistent decreases over time for any compounds. In the terns, Hg, HCB and ??HCH increased at most sites, ??PCB and ??DDT in Sweden and Norway. In the Oystercatcher, HCB and ??HCH increased at more than the half of the sites, ??PCB, ??DDT and Hg at several German sites. In the terns, Hg, ??PCB and ??DDT exceeded the EcoQO in all, HCB in most years and sites. At most sites, ??HCH fulfilled the EcoQO in some study years. In the Oystercatcher, Hg, ??PCB and ??DDT exceeded the EcoQO in all or most years and sites. HCB and ??HCH fulfilled the EcoQO in some or all years at most sites. The EcoQO was exceeded most frequently in estuaries. We conclude that EcoQOs are suitable for drawing contamination patterns of the coastal North Sea in an easily understandable manner, offering the opportunity to harmonize the EcoQOs with coordinated environmental monitoring programmes.     

How to consider engineered nanomaterials in major accident regulations?

Major accident regulations aim at protecting the population and the environment from possible accidental releases of chemicals. To achieve this goal, the regulations need to be reassessed in light of the development of new technologies. A currently rapidly growing new technology is nanotechnology, and engineered nanomaterials (ENM) are already produced and used in commercial products. The aim of this work was therefore to evaluate the current knowledge on human and ecotoxicology of ENM and their release and behavior in the environment in the context of major accident prevention. Nano-specific release paths are not to be expected. The established safety standards in the chemical industry are also applicable to ENM, especially the separate storage of flammable solvents and detention reservoirs. The potential of a release to the environment of ENM in powder form is larger than for suspensions; however, it can be minimized by safety measures established for conventional dusts. The considered human toxicology studies show that to date not conclusive enough answers regarding the toxicity of ENM can be made. The effects are dependent not only on the material itself but more on the functionalization, surface reactivity, size, and form. The acute ecotoxicity of ENM seems to be similar to the one of the corresponding microparticles (TiO₂) or the respective dissolved ions (Ag, Zn) with the exception of photocatalytically active nano-TiO₂, which has an increased toxicity. In order to guarantee that all ENM are included in the existing major accident regulations, different classification options are possible and the advantages and disadvantages are discussed. An important step will be the compulsory inclusion of nano-specific data in the Material Safety Data Sheets that serve as the basic medium to transfer information from the manufacturer to downstream users and authorities. We also call for a regular monitoring of the production and uses for ‘high production volume ENM’ that could have the largest implications for major accident regulations.     

Spatial Targeting of Agri-Environmental Measures: Cost-Effectiveness and Distributional Consequences

Agri-environmental measures are payments to farmers to reduce environmental risks or to preserve cultivated landscapes. These measures are codified in European Union regulations. Poor spatial targeting is one of the major causes of low cost-effectiveness in agri-environmental measures. Existing studies on spatial targeting focus primarily on selected individual measures; hence, they do not allow for conclusions at the program level, where the planning and implementing of decisions on a number of different measures has to be made. In this study, we analyzed the impacts of two spatial targeting options (targeting of erosion-reducing measures on erosion vulnerable areas; targeting of grassland extensification on N-pollution vulnerable areas) on the cost-effectiveness of the single measures and the entire agri-environmental program of the federal state of Brandenburg in Germany. The methodological steps included an analysis of empirical data on land use and program participation, an expert-based environmental impact assessment and a spatial allocation procedure based on linear programming. The environmental impact assessment delivered goal-specific index values for each measures-land parcel combination expressing the suitability of the measures for contributing to four regionally relevant program objectives. The cost-effectiveness of the measures and the program were calculated by putting budgetary costs in relation to the achieved environmental index sum. The calculated cost-effectiveness of the program in 2006 was 89.6% of the simulated optimal cost-effectiveness. The spatial targeting of erosion-reducing measures on erosion vulnerable areas caused an increase in the cost-effectiveness at the measures level and almost no changes at the program level. The spatial targeting of grassland extensification on N-pollution vulnerable areas, despite also improving the cost-effectiveness of this measure, had negative effects on the cost-effectiveness of the program.