MANAGING THE NATION'S WATER IN A CHANGING CLIMATE1

ABSTRACT: Among the many concerns associated with global climate change, the potential effects on water resources are frequently cited as the most worrisome. In contrast, those who manage water resources do not rate climatic change among their top planning and operational concerns. The difference in these views can be associated with how water managers operate their systems and the types of stresses, and the operative time horizons, that affect the Nation's water resources infrastructure. Climate, or more precisely weather, is an important variable in the management of water resources at daily to monthly time scales because water resources systems generally are operated on a daily basis. At decadal to centennial time scales, though, climate is much less important because (1) forecasts, particularly of regional precipitation, are extremely uncertain over such time periods, and (2) the magnitude of effects due to changes in climate on water resources is small relative to changes in other variables such as population, technology, economics, and environmental regulation. Thus, water management agencies find it difficult to justify changing design features or operating rules on the basis of simulated climatic change at the present time, especially given that reservoir-design criteria incorporate considerable buffering capacity for extreme meteorological and hydro-logical events.     

Cumulative environmental change: Conceptual frameworks,evaluation approaches,and institutional perspectives

Cumulative environmental change or cumulative effects may result from the additive effect of individual actions of the same nature or the interactive effect of multiple actions of a different nature. This article reviews conceptual frameworks of cumulative environmental change and describes analytical and institutional approaches to cumulative effects assessment (CEA). A causal model is a common theoretical construct, although the frameworks vary in their emphasis on different components of the model. Two broad approaches to CEA are distinguished: one scientific and the other planning oriented. These approaches should not be interpreted as competing paradigms but rather different interpretations of the scope of CEA. Each approach can provide a distinct but complementary contribution to the analysis, assessment, and management of cumulative effects. A comparison of the institutional and legislative response to CEA in Canada and the United States shows that Canada is following the American example of incorporating the analysis and assessment of cumulative effects into regulatory actions and administrative procedures that also govern environmental impact assessment.     

Contaminants in Wintering Canvasbacks and Scaups from San Francisco Bay, California

Organochlorines, metals, and trace elements were measured in liver, kidney, or whole-body tissues of canvasbacks (Aythya valisineria), lesser scaups (A. affinis), and greater scaups (A. marila) collected from San Francisco Bay and three coastal areas of California during the winter of 1986–1987. Potentially toxic concentrations of mercury (mean 10.4 µg/g, dry weight) and selenium (mean 32.7 µg/g, dry weight) were found in livers of scaups and canvasbacks from several San Francisco Bay sites. These elements varied spatially, temporally, and between species, with the highest concentrations found in late winter. Mean concentrations of mercury, selenium, and cadmium were generally higher in scaups than in canvasbacks. Of all the organochlorines included in the analyses, only p,p'-DDE and total PCBs were detected in all samples in this study. Mean whole-body concentrations of DDE and PCBs from San Francisco Bay ducks collected in late winter varied spatially and between species, but the concentrations were not considered toxic. Causes for inter-specific differences are unclear, but may be attributable to differences in diet, movement, or physiology.     

Use of multiple criteria for eutrophication assessment of coastal waters

The quality assessment of coastal waters of a tourist resort, on the basis of water quality criteria was attempted by using different quantitative approaches. Five variables related to eutrophication, that is nitrate, nitrite, ammonia, phosphate and chl were analyzed. Graphical methods were applied to all variables as well as unvariate statistical methods on the total inorganic nitrogen. Cluster analysis based on the five variables was also applied as an approach for numerical classification of the coastal waters. Comparison between the unvariate and multivariate methods used, was attempted to assess the validity of the procedures. The suitability of the methods used in coastal water management is also discussed.     

Perceiving Land-Degrading Activities from the Lay Perspective in Northern China

Investigation into local peoples’ perceptions can produce useful information that could be incorporated into the decision-making process to help resolve environmental problems. Within the arena of land degradation, a number of studies have also been conducted to explore local peoples’ views of the problem. However, the perceptions of land-degrading practices of the general public have so far not been actively solicited. This study aimed to contribute to this area of research by adopting the psychometric scaling technique to empirically explore the lay public’s ecological risk perceptions of land-degrading activities in Minqin County in Gansu Province, northern China. The primary data were collected via a questionnaire survey (n = 1,138) administered between 14 and 31 December 2002. The major findings of the survey were: (1) Respondents perceived the ecological risks posed by different land-degrading activities to be different. (2) There was a considerable incongruence in the way in which mining of groundwater was conceived by experts and laymen, respectively. (3) Respondents were pretty unsure of expert knowledge. (4) Respondents’ ecological risk perceptions were significantly affected by their personal attributes. As far as the policy implications of these findings are concerned, this study accentuates that we must be aware of, and involved in, the environmental perceptions of the lay public in order to succeed in guiding any human-environment tensions along more sustainable trajectories and navigating the transition to sustainability.     

Coral reef aerosol emissions in response to irradiance stress in the Great Barrier Reef,Australia

We investigate the correlation between stress-related compounds produced by corals of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) and local atmospheric properties—an issue that goes to the core of the coral ecosystem’s ability to survive climate change. We relate the variability in a satellite decadal time series of fine-mode aerosol optical depth (AOD) to a coral stress metric, formulated as a function of irradiance, water clarity, and tide, at Heron Island in the southern GBR. We found that AOD was correlated with the coral stress metric, and the correlation increased at low wind speeds, when horizontal advection of air masses was low and the production of non-biogenic aerosols was minimal. We posit that coral reefs may be able to protect themselves from irradiance stress during calm weather by affecting the optical properties of the atmosphere and local incident solar radiation.     

Population biology of the annual grassTriplasis purpurea in relation to distance from shore on Staten Island, New York

Four populations of the native annual grassTriplasis purpurea were surveyed on coastal beaches along the south shore of Staten Island, NY, to determine the potential of this species to colonize shoreline habitats mostly devoid of other vegetation. If the species can establish and maintain dense populations, it may have conservation value for urban beaches disturbed by human activities. For two populations, survivorship, growth, and reproduction were monitored at different distances from shore to determine the ability of this species to maintain viable populations. At three sites,T. purpurea occurred in >75% of all quadrats and the highest density was 1195 plants/m² at 74 m from shore in one recently disturbed site. Density generally increased with increasing distances from shore at low tide (from ca. 40 – 90 m). Plants showed the greatest growth and reproduction at close distances to shore (30 – 40 m); part of this effect was due to density in one population, but when density effects were removed statistically, there still remained a decline in growth and reproduction with increasing distance from shore. Improved vigor nearest to shore may be due to continual sand deposition. Survivorship showed a Type I pattern, with low mortality throughout the growing season. By colonizing newly-deposited and continually shifting sands,T. purpurea can contribute to the earliest stages of ecological succession along disturbed beaches in eastern North America and may be valuable to the development and management of urban coastal plant communities.     

Population biology of the annual grass Triplasis purpurea in relation to distance from shore on Staten Island, New York

Four populations of the native annual grassTriplasis purpurea were surveyed on coastal beaches along the south shore of Staten Island, NY, to determine the potential of this species to colonize shoreline habitats mostly devoid of other vegetation. If the species can establish and maintain dense populations, it may have conservation value for urban beaches disturbed by human activities. For two populations, survivorship, growth, and reproduction were monitored at different distances from shore to determine the ability of this species to maintain viable populations. At three sites,T. purpurea occurred in >75% of all quadrats and the highest density was 1195 plants/m² at 74 m from shore in one recently disturbed site. Density generally increased with increasing distances from shore at low tide (from ca. 40–90 m). Plants showed the greatest growth and reproduction at close distances to shore (30–40 m); part of this effect was due to density in one population, but when density effects were removed statistically, there still remained a decline in growth and reproduction with increasing distance from shore. Improved vigor nearest to shore may be due to continual sand deposition. Survivorship showed a Type I pattern, with low mortality throughout the growing season. By colonizing newly-deposited and continually shifting sands,T. purpurea can contribute to the earliest stages of ecological succession along disturbed beaches in eastern North America and may be valuable to the development and management of urban coastal plant communities.     

Investigating habitat value to inform contaminant remediation options: case study

Habitat valuation methods were implemented to support remedial decisions for aquatic and terrestrial contaminated sites at the East Tennessee Technology Park (ETTP) on the US Department of Energy (DOE) Oak Ridge Reservation in Oak Ridge, TN, USA. The habitat valuation was undertaken for six contaminated sites: Contractor's Spoil Area, K-901-N Disposal Area, K-770 Scrapyard, K-1007-P1 pond, K-901 pond, and the Mitchell Branch stream. Four of these sites are within the industrial use area of ETTP and two are in the Black Oak Ridge Conservation Easement. These sites represent terrestrial and aquatic habitat for vertebrates, terrestrial habitat for plants, and aquatic habitat for benthic invertebrates. Current and potential future, no-action (no remediation) scenarios were evaluated primarily using existing information. Valuation metrics and scoring criteria were developed in a companion paper, this volume. The habitat valuation consists of extensive narratives, as well as scores for aspects of site use value, site rarity, and use value added from spatial context. Metrics for habitat value were expressed with respect to different spatial scales, depending on data availability. There was significant variation in habitat value among the six sites, among measures for different taxa at a single site, between measures of use and rarity at a single site, and among measures for particular taxa at a single site with respect to different spatial scales. Most sites had aspects of low, medium, and high habitat value. Few high scores for current use value were given. These include: wetland plant communities at all aquatic sites, Lepomid sunfish and waterbirds at 1007-P1 pond, and Lepomid sunfish and amphibians at K-901 pond. Aquatic sites create a high-value ecological corridor for waterbirds, and the Contractor's Spoil Area and possibly the K-901-N Disposal Site have areas that are part of a strong terrestrial ecological corridor. The only example of recent observations of rare species at these sites is the gray bat observed at the K-1007-P1 pond. Some aspects of habitat value are expected to improve under no-action scenarios at a few of the sites. Methods are applicable to other contaminated sites where sufficient ecological data are available for the site and region.     

Zur chemie der marsoberfläche

Analyses of 13 samples of Martian surface materials with the Viking X-ray fluorescence spectrometers show SiO₂ similar to that of terrestrial mafic rocks, whereas Fe₂O₃, Cl, and S are higher and Al₂O₃, K₂O, Rb, Sr, Y, and Zr are lower. Low totals suggest presence of CO₂, H₂O, and Na₂O. Duricrust fragments are higher in S than fines, but samples from both landing sites are surprisingly similar. We suggest that Martian surface materials are aeolian deposits of complex mixtures of weathering products of maficultramafic rocks, possibly consisting of iron-rich clays, sulfates, iron oxides, carbonates, and chlorides.