Estimating the vulnerability of fifteen tree species under changing climate in Northwest North America

In the Pacific northwestern (PNW) region of North America, climatic conditions have significantly warmed since a predominantly cool phase of the Pacific North American circulation patterns between 1950 and 1975. What are the implications of this shift in climate for the vulnerability of native tree species? To address this question, we combined mechanistic and statistical models to assess where a variety of native tree species might be more vulnerable within their recorded ranges and where they might potentially migrate. For long-lived species that are well adapted to compete, seasonal differences in photosynthesis and water use offer insights helpful in predicting their distributions. To evaluate the general response of conifers to climatic variation across the region, we previously applied a process-based model (3-PG), to simulate the growth and maximum leaf area index that Douglas-fir could attain within recognized forested areas. We then constructed automated decision tree models to define and map the ecological distributions of 15 tree species based on differences in how photosynthesis was constrained by drought, daytime temperatures, high evaporative demand, and the frequency of frost. For the baseline climate period (1950-1975), the decision tree models predicted presence and absence of each species at ∼23,000 observations with an average accuracy of 81%, with an average kappa statistic of 0.74. In this paper the same models were run annually for the period between 1976 and 2006 for each species, and the areas defined as remaining suitable or becoming vulnerable to disturbance were identified based on whether more or less than half of the years fell within the originally defined limits. Based on these criteria, 70% of the species recorded ranges remained suitable, with 30% deemed vulnerable. Results varied notably by species with western red cedar and western hemlock remaining highly adapted, with potential for range expansion in area of up to 50% relative to the baseline period. In contrast, ponderosa pine, lodgepole pine, grand, and noble fir were classified as vulnerable with potential net contractions in their ranges. The analysis was extended through the rest of the 21st century using climatic projections from the Canadian global circulation model with a high fossil fuel emission scenario (A2) and compared to other previously published species range predictions.     

Leaf quality, predators, and stochastic processes in the assembly of a diverse herbivore community

Ecological communities are structured by both deterministic, niche-based processes and stochastic processes such as dispersal. A pressing issue in ecology is to determine when and for which organisms each of these types of processes is important in community assembly. The roles of deterministic and stochastic processes have been studied for a variety of communities, but very few researchers have addressed their contribution to insect herbivore community structure. Insect herbivore niches are often described as largely shaped by the antagonistic pressures of predation and host plant defenses. However host plants are frequently discrete patches of habitat, and their spatial arrangement can affect herbivore dispersal patterns. We studied the roles of predation, host plant quality, and host spatial proximity for the assembly of a diverse insect herbivore community on Quercus alba (white oak) across two growing seasons. We examined abundances of feeding guilds to determine if ecologically similar species responded similarly to variation in niches. Most guilds responded similarly to leaf quality, preferring high-nitrogen, low-tannin host plants, particularly late in the growing season, while bird predation had little impact on herbivore abundance. The communities on the high-quality plants tended to be larger and, in some cases, have greater species richness. We analyzed community composition by correlating indices of community similarity with predator presence, leaf quality similarity, and host plant proximity. Birds did not affect community composition. Community similarity was significantly associated with distance between host plants and uncorrelated with leaf quality similarity. Thus although leaf quality significantly affected the total abundance of herbivores on a host plant, in some cases leading to increased species richness, dispersal limitation may weaken this relationship. The species composition of these communities may be driven by stochastic processes rather than variation in host plant characteristics or differential predation by insectivorous birds.     

The reproductive ecology of the invasive ascidian, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Styela clava,</Emphasis> in Auckland Harbour,New Zealand

The ascidian Styela clava, native to the north-west Pacific, is an invasive species affecting New Zealand’s marine ecosystems, biodiversity and aquaculture operations. To provide detailed information on the reproductive biology of S. clava in New Zealand for post-border biosecurity management, long-term seasonal patterns of gametogenesis were determined from May 2006 to May 2008 in Auckland’s Waitemata Harbour (36°49′20″S, 174°45′85″E). Of particular interest was whether the critical 15°C threshold spawning temperature for reproduction observed in the Northern Hemisphere applied here to the first Southern Hemisphere study. S. clava gametogenesis followed a regular seasonal cycle with ripe gametes appearing as early as September and persisting to June; this time frame corresponds to the period when sea surface temperatures in the region first reach 15°C and with spawning occurring mainly during late summer to early autumn. From photoperiod manipulation, it was determined that spawning occurred at approximately 18:20. The extended reproductive period and a short generation time in the Waitemata Harbour provides a lengthy opportunity for S. clava to spread. Findings are discussed in relation to S. clava’s post-border management.     

Stress-induced recombination and the mechanism of evolvability

The concept of evolvability is controversial. To some, it is simply a measure of the standing genetic variation in a population and can be captured by the narrow-sense heritability (h²). To others, evolvability refers to the capacity to generate heritable phenotypic variation. Many scientists, including Darwin, have argued that environmental variation can generate heritable phenotypic variation. However, their theories have been difficult to test. Recent theory on the evolution of sex and recombination provides a much simpler framework for evaluating evolvability. It shows that modifiers of recombination can increase in prevalence whenever low fitness individuals produce proportionately more recombinant offspring. Because recombination can generate heritable variation, stress-induced recombination might be a plausible mechanism of evolvability if populations exhibit a negative relationship between fitness and recombination. Here we use the fruit fly, Drosophila melanogaster, to test for this relationship. We exposed females to mating stress, heat shock or cold shock and measured the temporary changes that occurred in reproductive output and the rate of chromosomal recombination. We found that each stress treatment increased the rate of recombination and that heat shock, but not mating stress or cold shock, generated a negative relationship between reproductive output and recombination rate. The negative relationship was absent in the low-stress controls, which suggests that fitness and recombination may only be associated under stressful conditions. Taken together, these findings suggest that stress-induced recombination might be a mechanism of evolvability.     

Effect of diel period and season on seining effort required to detect changes in Lake Erie beach fish assemblages

Using beach seining data from Lake Erie beaches, we examined the effect of diel period and season on two common study objectives considered sensitive to sampling effort: (1) has fish assemblage composition changed between two sampling time periods?, and (2) how many samples are necessary to provide a representative sample of the fish assemblage? Across a range of effect sizes and power levels, sample sizes were estimated for species richness, total fish abundance, round goby (Neogobius melanostomus) abundance and emerald shiner (Notropis atherinoides) abundance. For most sampling periods and effect sizes, several hundred to several thousand seine hauls were estimated to be required for detecting large-scale (e.g. basin-wide) changes in round goby and emerald shiner abundance. Depending on the indicator of interest, night seining (either spring or fall) was interpreted as the most efficient approach. For both seasons, sampling effort beyond 40 to 50 night seine hauls results in few additional species being detected. Both species accumulation curves and estimated sample sizes indicate that less effort is required to detect species richness changes than fish abundance. For most effect sizes and power levels, estimates of the number of seine hauls required to detect changes in fish abundance are unrealistically large for most monitoring programs. More practical monitoring strategies could be achieved by adopting alternative indicators (e.g. guilds), a more liberal significance level (p=0.1), a paired-site sampling design, or including reference sites.     

Newly metamorphosed <Emphasis Type="Italic">Elysia clarki</Emphasis> juveniles feed on and sequester chloroplasts from algal species different from those utilized by adult slugs

The adult, sacoglossan sea slug, Elysia clarki (Pierce et al. in Molluscan Res 26, 2006), sequesters functional chloroplasts in cells of the digestive diverticula from four species of macroalgae in the order Bryopsidales (Penicillus capitatus, Penicillus lamourouxii, Halimeda incrassata, and Halimeda monile). Feeding experiments were conducted in December, 2003, using individuals raised in the laboratory from egg masses laid by E. clarki adults which had been collected from Grassy Key, Florida, USA, and 29 species of macroalgae collected from the Florida Keys, Tampa Bay, Tarpon Springs, Florida, or Woods Hole, Massachusetts or obtained from the Culture Collection of Algae at the University of Texas at Austin, Texas. For the first 14-day post-metamorphosis, juveniles ate only the thin filamentous species, Bryopsis plumosa or Derbesia tenuissima. Transmission electron microscopy showed that the chloroplasts from both algae were sequestered intracellularly in juvenile slugs. Individuals offered any other macroalga, including the four species fed on by adults, did not feed on or incorporate any chloroplasts, and soon died. Juveniles switched from B. plumosa to P. capitatus at a length of ∼ 1.0 cm, and fixed for microscopy 14 days later had intact intracellular chloroplasts from both algae. Nucleotide sequences of the chloroplast gene, rbcL, from DNA extracted from E. clarki, collected from Vaca Key, Florida, were aligned with 22 other available macroalgal rbcL sequences indicating that these E. clarki adults had fed on three species of algae in the Bryopsidales including Bryopsis pennata, and TEM results partially confirmed this conclusion.     

Sardine (Sardina pilchardus) spawning seasonality in European waters of the northeast Atlantic

Egg data from ichthyoplankton monitoring sites in the western English Channel (1988–2003) and northern Spain (1990–2000) and macroscopic maturity data from biological samples of purse seine landings in western and southern Iberia (1980–2004) are used to describe the spawning seasonality of sardine (Sardina pilchardus) in European waters of the northeast Atlantic using generalised additive models. The fitted models reveal a double peak in spawning activity during early summer and autumn in the western Channel, a wider spring peak off northern Spain and a broad winter season in the western and southern Iberian Peninsula. At all sites, a high probability of spawning activity was observed over at least 3 months of the year, with the duration of the season increasing with both decreasing latitude and increasing fish size. Off western and southern Iberia there are indications that the spawning season has been of longer duration in recent years for all size classes (reaching in some cases 8 months of the year for large fish). These patterns are in general agreement with existing literature and theoretical expectations of sardine spawning being driven locally by the seasonal cycle of water temperature, assuming preferences for spawning at 14 –15°C and avoidance for temperatures below 12°C and above 16°C. Regional quotient plots indicated that spawning tolerance to higher temperatures increases progressively with decreasing latitude. Despite the weak evidence for geographical differences in temperature tolerance that may have some genetic origin, the degree of spatio-temporal overlap in sardine-spawning activity within Atlantic European waters is unlikely to promote any reproductive isolation in that area.     

Exploring the risks and benefits of flexibility in biodiversity offset location in a case study of migratory shorebirds

Biodiversity offsets aim to counterbalance the residual impacts of development on species and ecosystems. Guidance documents explicitly recommend that biodiversity offset actions be located close to the location of impact because of higher potential for similar ecological conditions, but allowing greater spatial flexibility has been proposed. We examined the circumstances under which offsets distant from the impact location could be more likely to achieve no net loss or provide better ecological outcomes than offsets close to the impact area. We applied a graphical model for migratory shorebirds in the East Asian–Australasian Flyway as a case study to explore the problems that arise when incorporating spatial flexibility into offset planning. Spatially flexible offsets may alleviate impacts more effectively than local offsets; however, the risks involved can be substantial. For our case study, there were inadequate data to make robust conclusions about the effectiveness and equivalence of distant habitat-based offsets for migratory shorebirds. Decisions around offset placement should be driven by the potential to achieve equivalent ecological outcomes; however, when considering more distant offsets, there is a need to evaluate the likely increased risks alongside the potential benefits. Although spatially flexible offsets have the potential to provide more cost-effective biodiversity outcomes and more cobenefits, our case study showed the difficulty of demonstrating these benefits in practice and the potential risks that need to be considered to ensure effective offset placement.