ARIO模型对灾害引起的部门经济损失数据完备程度的敏感性分析——以湖南为例

重大自然灾害恢复重建的时间长短与灾害造成的间接经济损失大小直接相关,因而影响灾害造成的总损失,评估灾害的间接经济损失是灾后制定减灾政策的重要内容。ARIO模型为评估灾害对经济系统冲击造成的间接损失提供了一种有效途径。但在模型的应用中,存在模型所需的直接经济损失数据与部门合并所需的输入数据对应一致问题,因而需要考察部门合并对模拟结果的影响,从而得到ARIO模型对模拟部门需求的适应性。该文应用ARIO模型,结合湖南省经济状况和救灾政策,分别编制了18部门和13部门当地投入产出表,模拟了1998年湖南省经济在洪涝灾害后的恢复情况,模拟结果表明不同数量部门的间接损失模拟结果相差在10%以内,同时建议应用ARIO模拟部门数量应不少于12个。     

西南地区农户旱灾脆弱性分析——基于排序选择模型的实证研究

承灾体的脆弱性是揭示旱灾成灾机理和灾害风险机制的关键,从农户家庭的微观视角出发,以西南地区的210户受灾农户的调查为基础,采用排序选择模型,研究由农户家庭特征整合而成的五大农户生计资产对农户家庭的旱灾脆弱性的影响。研究结果显示:自然、人力、金融、物质资产对农户家庭的旱灾脆弱性有显著性影响。其中,自然、人力和金融资产对农户家庭旱灾脆弱性有显著负效应,而物质资产与农户家庭旱灾脆弱性存在负相关关系。     

Spatial and temporal patterns and the socioeconomic impacts of landslides in the tropical and mountainous Colombian Andes

Landslides are a natural hazard that presents a major threat to human life and infrastructure. Although they are a very common phenomenon in Colombia, there is a lack of analysis that entails national and comprehensive spatial, temporal, and socioeconomic evaluations of such events based on historical records. This study provides a detailed assessment of the spatial and temporal patterns and the socioeconomic impacts associated with landslides that occurred in the country between 1900 and 2018. Two national landslide databases were consulted and this information was complemented by local and regional landslide catalogues. A total of 30,730 landslides were recorded in the 118-year period. Rainfall is the most common trigger of landslides, responsible for 92 per cent of those registered, but most fatalities (68 per cent) are due to landslides caused by volcanic activity and earthquakes. An ‘fN curve’ revealed a very high frequency of small and moderate fatal landslides in the time frame.     

基于无线传感物联网技术的泥石流造成道路中断概率评估

为减少泥石流中断道路对人类生命财产的危害,该文提出基于无线传感物联网技术的泥石流中断道路概率评估方法。首先构建包括感知层、传输层、数据层与应用层的物联网技术泥石流中断道路评估系统,然后通过分析泥石流中断道路的影响因素,选取出评估泥石流中断道路概率的指标并创建评估指标体系,对评估指标实行分级,最后以灰色关联度分析法确定指标权重,采用因素叠加法创建评估模型实现评估概率等级划分。实例分析结果表明:此方法可准确、有效评估汶川县的5条道路的泥石流中断道路概率,其中道路a概率较高,道路e的概率较低,其余三条道路的概率中等;且此方法具备数据采集时耗时短、效率高优势;可为及时治理泥石流灾害、规避道路中断风险提供有效依据。     

乡镇居民对突发公共卫生事件及常见传染病的认知与健康需求

为了解乡镇居民对突发公共卫生事件及常见传染病的关注度和认知水平,并分析其健康教育的需求和培训方式。随机抽取陕西省某市某镇5个行政村650名居民进行问卷调查,了解居民对突发公共卫生事件及常见传染病的认知与需求,并对结果进行统计学分析。研究结果表明,乡镇居民对突发公共卫生事件及常见传染病的关注度普遍较高（平均得分9.01±0.25分）,而认知水平较低（平均得分5.03±0.33）,其关注度和认知水平均与学历、职业和月收入有关。低学历组、低收入组和在家务农以及偶而外出打工的居民,关注度较高但认知水平较低,高学历组、高收入组和常年在外打工和有固定工作单位的居民,关注度和认知水平均较高。绝大多数乡镇居民十分愿意深入了解突发公共卫生事件及常见传染病的相关知识,其培训方式需求依次为手机短信和微信推送、设置宣传栏和发放宣传单、专家当面讲授、专家义诊咨询。建议对低学历、低收入和常年在家务农以及偶尔外出打工的人群进行相关知识的宣教。     

基于特征显著性的地震灾害发生后建筑物裂缝智能检测模型

由于地震灾害发生后建筑物表面具有多纹理性、多目标性特征,导致现有的建筑物裂缝智能检测方法已经不能满足检测需要。为了提高检测效果,该文设计提出基于特征显著性的地震灾害后建筑物裂缝智能检测方法。建立压缩感知去噪框架,通过图像重构消除震后建筑裂缝图像噪点。采用FCM聚类分割法对去噪图像进行分割,引入灰度直方图作为灰度级的模糊聚类样本点,利用灰度样本完成图像聚类。基于人眼视觉特征,对图像背景区域重新划分,完成图像边缘检测。基于提取的二值化图像确定裂纹特征,根据特征值范围确定裂缝种类实现震后建筑裂缝检测。     

矿山地质环境开发式治理模式研究

该文梳理了矿山地质环境开发式治理提出的政策背景,总结了开发式治理的概念内涵、治理模式与研究思路,并提出了开发式治理的可行性评价方法。结果表明:矿山地质环境开发式治理是在政府引领、政策支持下,吸纳多元资金,进行经济发展和生态环境治理并重的治理方式;开发式治理可以总结为残留资源再利用模式、废弃土地再利用模式、固体废弃物再利用模式、水资源循环再利用模式等4种模式;开发式治理可行性评价指标主要包括宜性因素（自然地理条件、矿业开发条件）和限制性因素（经济效益、环境效益和社会效益）,通过综合指数法评价认为,韩城西山石灰岩开采区最优开发式治理方案为“残留资源再利用模式”。通过矿山地质环境开发式治理模式的研究,以期为矿区环境保护和生态修复提供支持。     

气候变化背景下青藏高原青稞自然灾害暴露研究进展

青稞是青藏高原特有的农作物,是世居民族依赖的主要食物,全球变化背景下自然灾害的加剧,使青稞的灾害暴露加大,威胁到高原世居民族的粮食安全。在梳理高原青稞种植范围、品种变化、产量需求等研究基础上,界定青稞面向自然灾害风险的暴露内涵及时空表达,并对基于现代技术条件下青稞暴露的定量分析方法和未来可能技术进行了总结和展望,以期从青稞暴露研究的角度为农作物自然灾害风险评价提供参考。     

The liver but not the skin is the site for conversion of a red carotenoid in a passerine bird

Carotenoids may provide numerous health benefits and are also responsible for the integumentary coloration of many bird species. Despite their importance, many aspects of their metabolism are still poorly known, and even basic issues such as the anatomical sites of conversion remain controversial. Recent studies suggest that the transformation of carotenoid pigments takes place directly in the follicles during feather growth, even though the liver has been previously recognised as a storing organ for these pigments with a certain potential for conversion. In this context, we analysed the carotenoid profile of plasma, liver, skin and feathers of male Common Crossbills (Loxia curvirostra). Interestingly, the derivative feather pigment 3-hydroxy-echinenone was detected in the liver and in the bloodstream (i.e. the necessary vehicle to transport metabolites to colourful peripheral tissues). Our results demonstrate for the first time with empirical data that the liver may act as the main site for the synthesis of integumentary carotenoids. This finding contradicts previous assumptions and raises the question of possible inter-specific differences in the site of carotenoid conversion in birds.     

Best practices for the implantation of ISO 14001 norms: a study of change management in two industrial companies in the Midwest region of the state of São Paulo – Brazil

Among the difficulties found in the implementation of ISO 14001 systems, resistance to change can always be found. It is mainly a consequence of the hurry to change, loss of focus, concentration of decision making at the level of top management, arbitrary imposition of objectives and results, faulty communication, and the absence of motivational and financial incentive for change.Therefore, the main objective of this paper is to present best practices with respect to the management of organizational change due to the implementation of ISO 14001 norms in two industrial companies in the Midwest region of the State of São Paulo – Brazil.