Sensitivity analysis of the asymptotic behavior of a model for the environmental movement of radionuclides

The asymptotic behavior of a linear compartment model for the environmental movement of radionuclides is investigated. Here, the expression asymptotic behavior is used to designate the behavior of q(t) as t → ∞, where q is the solution of a vector differential equation of the form dq/dt = h + Kq. The asymptotic behavior of such equations is described. For the model and conditions under consideration, each element of q converges monotonically to a steady-state value. A hydrologic system is defined and used to illustrate this behavior. An approach to sensitivity analysis employing Latin hypercube sampling, rank transformations and stepwise regression is presented and then applied to this system. A total of 20 independent variables is introduced and the following dependent variables are investigated for the various components of the system: amount of radionuclide present at steady state. concentration of radionuclide at steady state, and time required to reach 90% of steady state. Finally, an application of asymptotic behavior in the analysis of a hypothetical site for the geologic isolation of high-level radioactive waste is described and a brief discussion of differential sensitivity analysis is given.     

The Real-World Safety Potential of Connected Vehicle Technology

Objective: This article estimates the safety potential of a current commercially available connected vehicle technology in real-world crashes.

Method: Data from the Centre for Automotive Safety Research's at-scene in-depth crash investigations in South Australia were used to simulate the circumstances of real-world crashes. A total of 89 crashes were selected for inclusion in the study. The crashes were selected as representative of the most prevalent crash types for injury or fatal crashes and had potential to be mitigated by connected vehicle technology. The trajectory, speeds, braking, and impact configuration of the selected in-depth cases were replicated in a software package and converted to a file format allowing “replay” of the scenario in real time as input to 2 Cohda Wireless MK2 onboard units. The Cohda Wireless onboard units are a mature connected vehicle technology that has been used in both the German simTD field trial and the U.S. Department of Transport's Safety Pilot project and have been tuned for low false alarm rates when used in the real world. The crash replay was achieved by replacing each of the onboard unit Global Positioning System (GPS) inputs with the simulated data of each of the involved vehicles. The time at which the Cohda Wireless threat detection software issued an elevated warning was used to calculate a new impact speed using 3 different reaction scenarios and 2 levels of braking.

Results: It was found that between 37 and 86% of the simulated crashes could be avoided, with highest percentage due a fully autonomous system braking at 0.7 g. The same system also reduced the impact speed relative to the actual crash in all cases. Even when a human reaction time of 1.2 s and moderate braking of 0.4 g was assumed, the impact speed was reduced in 78% of the crashes. Crash types that proved difficult for the threat detection engine were head-on crashes where the approach angle was low and right turn–opposite crashes.

Conclusions: These results indicate that connected vehicle technology can be greatly beneficial in real-world crash scenarios and that this benefit would be maximized by having the vehicle intervene autonomously with heavy braking. The crash types that proved difficult for the connected vehicle technology could be better addressed if controller area network (CAN) information is available, such as steering wheel angle, so that driver intent can be inferred sooner. More accurate positioning in the real world (e.g., combining satellite positioning and accelerometer data) would allow the technology to be more effective for near-collinear head-on and rear-end crashes, because the low approach angles that are common in such crashes are currently ignored in order to minimize false alarms due to positioning uncertainty.     

Assessing slope stability in unplanned settlements in developing countries

Unplanned housing in developing countries is often located on steep slopes. Frequently no building code is enforced for such housing and mains water is provided with no drainage provision. Both of these factors can be particularly significant in terms of landslide risk if, as is so often the case, such slopes lack any planned drainage provision. There is thus a need to develop a model that facilitates the assessment of slope stability in an holistic context, incorporating a wide range of factors (including surface cover, soil water topographic convergence, slope loading and point source water leakage) in order that appropriate advice can be given as to the general controls on slope stability in such circumstances. This paper outlines a model configured for this specific purpose and describes an application to a site in St. Lucia, West Indies, where there is active slope movement in an unplanned housing development on relatively steep topography. The model findings are in accord with the nature of the current failure at the site, provide guidance as to the significance of slope drainage and correspond to inferences drawn from an application of resistance envelope methods to the site. In being able to scenario test a uniquely wide range of combinations of factors, the model structure is shown to be highly valuable in assessing dominant slope stability process controls in such complex environments.     

Sampling and Mapping a Soil Erosion Cover Factor by Integrating Stratification,Model Updating and Cokriging with Images

Cost-efficient sample designs for collection of ground data and accurate mapping of variables are required to monitor natural resources and environmental and ecological systems. In this study, a sample design and mapping method was developed by integrating stratification, model updating, and cokriging with Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery. This method is based on the spatial autocorrelation of variables and the spatial cross-correlation among them. It can lead to sample designs with variable grid spacing, where sampling distances between plots vary depending on spatial variability of the variables from location to location. This has potential cost-efficiencies in terms of sample design and mapping. This method is also applicable for mapping in the case in which no ground data can be collected in some parts of a study area because of the high cost. The method was validated in a case study in which a ground and vegetation cover factor was sampled and mapped for monitoring soil erosion. The results showed that when the sample obtained with three strata using the developed method was used for sampling and mapping the cover factor, the sampling cost was greatly decreased, although the error of the map was slightly increased compared to that without stratification; that is, the sample cost-efficiency quantified by the product of cost and error was greatly increased. The increase of cost-efficiency was more obvious when the cover factor values of the plots within the no-significant-change stratum were updated by a model developed using the previous observations instead of remeasuring them in the field.     

Creating False Images: Stream Restoration in an Urban Setting

Stream restoration has become a multibillion dollar business with mixed results as to its efficacy. This case study utilizes pre‐ and post‐monitoring data from restoration projects on an urban stream to assess how well stream conditions, publicly stated project goals, and project implementation align. Our research confirms previous studies showing little communication among academic researchers and restoration practitioners as well as provides further evidence that restoration efforts tend to focus on small‐scale, specific sites without considering broader land use patterns. This study advances our understanding of restoration by documenting that although improving ecological conditions is a stated goal for restoration projects, the implemented measures are not always focused on those issues that are the most ecologically salient. What these projects have accomplished is to protect the built environment and promote positive public perception. We argue that these disconnects among publicized goals for restoration, the implemented features, and actual stream conditions may create a false image of what an ecologically stable stream looks like and therefore perpetuate a false sense of optimism about the feasibility of restoring urban streams.     

Effects of Population Size and Food Stress on Fitness-Related Characters in the Scarce Heath, a Rare Butterfly in Western Europe

Abstract: Knowledge about the effects of inbreeding in natural populations is scarce, especially in invertebrates. We analyzed to what extent fitness-related traits in the scarce heath (  Coenonympha hero ), a butterfly, are affected by population size and isolation and whether differences in food quality influence these effects. We categorized nine populations as either large or small and isolated. Full-sib groups of offspring from 27 females were followed under seminatural conditions. Because of increased zygote mortality, egg hatchability was significantly lower in the small and isolated populations than in the large ones. Population category had no effect on larval weight under optimal conditions, but weight was significantly lower in the small-isolated category with low food quality. The effects of inbreeding can thus be hidden when conditions are benign but can appear under stress. Survival also differed significantly between population categories, and larval developmental time tended to be longer in the small-isolated category, irrespective of food conditions. We suggest that the differences in fitness between offspring from large and small isolated populations are at least partly due to inbreeding. This adds a further threat to a species that is already suffering from decreasing population sizes and increasing isolation among populations.