Computer simulation of barren-ground caribou dynamics

This paper describes a simulation model of a Canadian caribou population. The model was constructed by an interdisciplinary team of field biologists, managers, and systems ecologists. Population dynamics are represented in terms of age structure, with age-dependent survival and fecundity. Biomass dynamics of the major food species are also simulated, and the food dynamics interact with the caribou population through a foraging submodel that explicitly considers snow depth, seasonal migrations, and total area of useable winter habitat. The model was used to examine two hypotheses regarding the abundance of barren-ground caribou. It was shown that there is no reason to suspect that food supply currently limits the population size; instead, hunting pressure appears to be the critical variable. The implications of this finding for population management are discussed.     

Day-of-week patterns in toxic air contaminants in southern California

Day-of-week mean ambient concentrations were computed for six high-cancer-risk toxic air contaminants (TACs): 1,3-butadiene, benzene, acetaldehyde, formaldehyde, carbon tetrachloride (CCl4), and perchloroethylene. Data from six urban sites in southern California, from 1989 through 2001, were analyzed. Graphical displays were used to search for repeated patterns. Benzene and 1,3-butadiene, emitted mainly by mobile sources, exhibit distinctly lower concentrations on Sundays and slightly lower concentrations on Saturdays and Wednesdays. Acetaldehyde and formaldehyde show some trace of a weekly pattern similar to that of benzene and 1,3-butadiene, but the pattern is not strongly marked. Perchloroethylene, used primarily as a dry-cleaning solvent, is also distinctly lower on Sundays. CCl4 does not show a day-of-week pattern.     

The Use of Natural Systems to Remediate Groundwater: Department of Energy Experience at the Savannah River Site

Natural remediation is moving toward the forefront as engineers clean groundwater at the Savannah River Site (SRS), a major Department of Energy (DOE) installation near Aiken, South Carolina. This article reviews two successful, innovative remediation methods currently being deployed: biosparging to treat chlorinated solvents and phytoremediation to address tritium in groundwater. The biosparging system reintroduces oxygen into the groundwater and injects nutrient compounds for in‐situ remediation. The system has greatly reduced the concentrations of trichloroethylene (TCE) and vinyl chloride in wells downgradient from a sanitary landfill (SLF). Phytoremediation is an emerging technology that promises effective and inexpensive cleanup of certain hazardous wastes. Using natural processes, plants can break down, trap and hold, or transpire contaminants. This article discusses the use of phytoremediation to reduce the discharge of tritium to an on‐site stream at SRS. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals Inc. *     

COST‐EFFECTIVE POINT‐NONPOINT TRADING: AN APPLICATION TO THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: Point‐nonpoint trading has been suggested as a relatively efficient approach for reducing nutrient pollution in the Chesapeake Bay and elsewhere. However, relatively little economic research has examined the design of trading programs involving nonpoint sources. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the economics of several fundamental design choices for point‐nonpoint trading programs. The Susquehanna River Basin (SRB) in Pennsylvania as an example, although many of the insights should generally apply to other regions as well.     

Conceptualizing Sustainability: Simulating Concrete Possibilities in an Imperfect World

This paper uses a cultural model approach to interpret and analyse the impact of an interactive computer simulation tool (GB-Quest) on the possibility of fostering dialogue about sustainability in southwestern British Columbia, Canada. We define cultural models theory, compare cultural models to mental models and illustrate some basic features of cultural models. We then describe the research process in which participants engaged in conversation, guided and facilitated by GB-Quest, about sustainability. Findings suggest that the use of cultural models frameworks reinforces participants' understanding of sustainability. In reflecting on their prior models of sustainability, we argue that study participants can elucidate how cognitive conceptual resources reflect publicly shared knowledge (Turner, 2004).     

A Hydrologic/Water Quality Model Applicati11

Abstract: This paper presents a procedure for standard application of hydrologic/water quality models. To date, most hydrologic/water quality modeling projects and studies have not utilized formal protocols, but rather have employed ad hoc approaches. The procedure proposed is an adaptation and extension of steps identified from relevant literature including guidance provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. This protocol provides guidance for establishing written plans prior to conducting modeling efforts. Eleven issues that should be addressed in model application plans were identified and discussed in the context of hydrologic/water quality studies. A graded approach for selection of the level of documentation for each item was suggested. The creation and use of environmental modeling plans is increasingly important as the results of modeling projects are used in decision‐making processes that have significant implications. Standard modeling application protocols similar to the proposed procedure herein provide modelers with a roadmap to be followed, reduces modelers’ bias, enhances the reproducibility of model application studies, and eventually improves acceptance of modeling outcomes.     

Survival Model for Foot and Leg High Rate Axial Impact Injury Data

Objectives: Understanding how lower extremity injuries from automotive intrusion and underbody blast (UBB) differ is of key importance when determining whether automotive injury criteria can be applied to blast rate scenarios. This article provides a review of existing injury risk analyses and outlines an approach to improve injury prediction for an expanded range of loading rates. This analysis will address issues with existing injury risk functions including inaccuracies due to inertial and potential viscous resistance at higher loading rates.

Methods: This survival analysis attempts to minimize these errors by considering injury location statistics and a predictor variable selection process dependent upon failure mechanisms of bone. Distribution of foot/ankle/leg injuries induced by axial impact loading at rates characteristic of UBB as well as automotive intrusion was studied and calcaneus injuries were found to be the most common injury; thus, footplate force was chosen as the main predictor variable because of its proximity to injury location to prevent inaccuracies associated with inertial differences due to loading rate. A survival analysis was then performed with age, sex, dorsiflexion angle, and mass as covariates. This statistical analysis uses data from previous axial postmortem human surrogate (PMHS) component leg tests to provide perspectives on how proximal boundary conditions and loading rate affect injury probability in the foot/ankle/leg (n = 82).

Results: Tibia force-at-fracture proved to be up to 20% inaccurate in previous analyses because of viscous resistance and inertial effects within the data set used, suggesting that previous injury criteria are accurate only for specific rates of loading and boundary conditions. The statistical model presented in this article predicts 50% probability of injury for a plantar force of 10.2 kN for a 50th percentile male with a neutral ankle position. Force rate was found to be an insignificant covariate because of the limited range of loading rate differences within the data set; however, compensation for inertial effects caused by measuring the force-at-fracture in a location closer to expected injury location improved the model's predictive capabilities for the entire data set.

Conclusions: This study provides better injury prediction capabilities for both automotive and blast rates because of reduced sensitivity to inertial effects and tibia–fibula load sharing. Further, a framework is provided for future injury criteria generation for high rate loading scenarios. This analysis also suggests key improvements to be made to existing anthropomorphic test device (ATD) lower extremities to provide accurate injury prediction for high rate applications such as UBB.     

Implications of Functional Capacity Loss and Fatality for Vehicle Safety Prioritization

Objective: We investigate the use of the Functional Capacity Index (FCI) as a tool for establishing vehicle safety priorities by comparing the life year burden of injuries to the burden of fatality in frontal and side automotive crashes. We demonstrate FCI’s utility by investigating in detail the resulting disabling injuries and their life year costs.

Methods: We selected occupants in the 2000–2013 NASS-CDS database involved in frontal and side crashes, merged their injuries with FCI, and then used the merged data to estimate each occupant’s overall functional loss. Lifetime functional loss was assessed by combining this measure of impairment with the occupants’ expected future life spans, estimated from the Social Security Administration’s Actuarial Life Table.

Results: Frontal crashes produce a large number of disabling injuries, particularly to the lower extremities. In our population, these crashes are estimated to account for approximately 400,000 life years lost to disability in comparison with 500,000 life years lost to fatality. Victims of side crashes experienced a higher rate of fatality but a significantly lower rate of disabling injury (0.3 vs. 1.0%), resulting in approximately 370,000 life years lost to fatality versus 50,000 life years lost to disability.

Conclusions: The burden of disabling injuries to car crash survivors should be considered when setting vehicle safety design priorities. In frontal crashes this burden in life years is similar to the burden attributable to fatality.