The inadequacy of monitoring without modelling support

There is much to gain in joining monitoring and modelling efforts, especially in the present process of implementing the European Water Framework Directive and in the coming implementation of the Groundwater Directive. Nevertheless, present practises in the water management world suggest that most often models are not considered an option when monitoring obligations in the WFD are solved. The present paper analyses the constraints, such as perceived insufficiency of data for modelling, lack of explicit requirement for modelling in the WFD and its associated technical guidance documents, lack of awareness about what models can do and lack of confidence in models by water managers and policy makers. The findings have mainly emerged from a series of Harmoni-CA workshops aiming at bringing the monitoring and modelling communities together for a discussion of benefits and constraints in the joint use of monitoring and modelling. The workshops were attended by scientists, water managers, policy makers, stakeholders and consultants. The overall conclusion is that modelling can significantly improve the benefits of monitoring data; by quality assurance of data, interpolation and extrapolation in space and time, development of process understanding (conceptual models), and the assessment of impacts of pressures and effects of programmes of measures.     

Low emission zones reduce PM10 mass concentrations and diesel soot in German cities

In many European cities mass concentrations of PM₁₀ (particles less than 10 μm in size) are still exceeding air quality standards as set by the European Commission in 1999. As a consequence, many cities introduced low emission zones (LEZs) to improve air quality and to meet the limit values. In Germany currently 48 LEZs are in operation. By means of dispersion modeling, PM₁₀ concentrations were estimated to decrease up to 10%. Analysis of PM₁₀ levels conducted for Cologne, Berlin, and Munich some time after the LEZs were introduced showed reduction of PM₁₀ mass concentration in the estimated range. The PM₁₀ particle fraction is, however, composed of particles with varying toxicity, of which diesel soot is highly health relevant. An evaluation of air quality data conducted in Berlin showed that in 2010 traffic-related soot concentrations measured along major roads decreased by 52% compared to 2007. Diesel particle emissions in Berlin were reduced in 2012 by 63% compared to a business-as-usual scenario (reference year 2007). A strong reduction of the traffic-related particle fraction of PM_2.5 was also reported for Munich. Therefore, it is likely that the effects of LEZs are considerably more significant to human health than was anticipated when only considering the reduction of PM₁₀ mass concentrations.

Implications: The implementation of low emission zones in German cities might result in a reduction of PM₁₀ levels concentrations by up to 10%. However, it is difficult to show a reduction of PM₁₀ annual averages in this order of magnitude as meteorology has a large impact on the year-to-year variation of PM mass concentrations. Monitoring of other PM metrics such as black smoke (BS) or elemental carbon (EC) might be a better strategy for evaluating LEZs effects. The benefit of low emission zones on human health is far greater than is presently visible from routine measurements of PM₁₀.     

2,6-Dichlorobenzamide (BAM) herbicide mineralisation by Aminobacter sp. MSH1 during starvation depends on a subpopulation of intact cells maintaining vital membrane functions

Mineralisation capability was studied in the 2,6-dichlorobenzamide (BAM)-degrading Aminobacter sp. MSH1 under growth-arrested conditions. Cells were starved in mineral salts (MS) solution or groundwater before ¹⁴C-labelled BAM (0.1 mM) was added. Cell physiology was monitored with a panel of vitality stains combined with flow cytometry to differentiate intact, depolarised and dead cells. Cells starved for up to 3 weeks in MS solution showed immediate growth-linked mineralisation after BAM amendment while a lag-phase was seen after 8 weeks of starvation. In contrast, cells amended with BAM in natural groundwater showed BAM mineralisation but no growth. The cell-specific mineralisation rate was always comparable (10⁻¹⁶ mol C intact cell⁻¹ day⁻¹) independent of media, growth, or starvation period after BAM amendment; lower rates were only observed as BAM concentration decreased. MSH1 seems useful for bioremediation and should be optimised to maintain an intact cell subpopulation as this seems to be the key parameter for successful mineralisation.     

A model-based assessment of the environmental impact of land-use change across scales in Southern Amazonia

Regional Environmental Change - This article describes the design of a new model-based assessment framework to identify and analyse possible future trajectories of agricultural development and...     

Deposition of dust with active substances in pesticides from treated seeds in adjacent fields during drilling: disentangling the effects of various factors using an 8-year field experiment

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - The side effects from the use of plant protection products and their potential effects on non-target arthropods (NTAs) such as honey bees, other...     

Statistical models for evaluating suspected artefacts in long-term environmental monitoring data

Long-term water quality monitoring is of high value for environmental management as well as for research. Artificial level shifts in time series due to method improvements, flaws in laboratory practices or changes in laboratory are a common limitation for analysis, which, however, are often ignored. Statistical estimation of such artefacts is complicated by the simultaneous existence of trends, seasonal variation and effects of other influencing factors, such as weather conditions. Here, we investigate the performance of generalised additive mixed models (GAMM) to simultaneously identify one or more artefacts associated with artificial level shifts, longitudinal effects related to temporal trends and seasonal variation, as well as to model the serial correlation structure of the data. In the same model, it is possible to estimate separate residual variances for different periods so as to identify if artefacts not only influence the mean level but also the dispersion of a series. Even with an appropriate statistical methodology, it is difficult to quantify artificial level shifts and make appropriate adjustments to the time series. The underlying temporal structure of the series is especially important. As long as there is no prominent underlying trend in the series, the shift estimates are rather stable and show less variation. If an artificial shift occurs during a slower downward or upward tendency, it is difficult to separate these two effects and shift estimates can be both biased and have large variation. In the case of a change in method or laboratory, we show that conducting the analyses with both methods in parallel strongly improves estimates of artefact effects on the time series, even if certain problems remain. Due to the difficulties of estimating artificial level shifts, posterior adjustment is problematic and can lead to time series that no longer can be used for trend analysis or other analysis based on the longitudinal structure of the series. Before carrying out a change in analytic method or laboratory, it should be considered if this is absolutely necessary. If changes cannot be avoided, the analysis of the two methods considered, or the two laboratories contracted, should be run in parallel for a considerable period of time so as to enable a good assessment of changes introduced to the data series.     

Offshore windmill farms: threats to or possibilities for the marine environment

A massive development of offshore windmill farms has been planned along the European coastline. This raises important questions about the possible effects on the marine environment. Effects during the construction period may be minimized to a negligible impact if care is taken to avoid areas containing rare habitats or species. Disturbance caused by noise, vibrations, and electromagnetic fields during windmill operation may, with present knowledge, be considered to be of minor importance to the marine environment. The reef effect (i.e. addition of a hard substratum), is believed to cause the largest impact on the marine environment and at different scales: the micro scale, which involves material, texture, and heterogeneity of the foundation material; the meso scale, which involves the revetments and scour protection; and the macro scale, which encompasses the level of the entire windmill farm. Effects on these scales are discussed in relation to results obtained from natural habitats, artificial reefs, and other man-made constructions at sea.     

Sorption, desorption and mineralisation of the herbicides glyphosate and MCPA in samples from two Danish soil and subsurface profiles

The vertical distribution of the sorption, desorption and mineralisation of glyphosate and MCPA was examined in samples from two contrasting soil and subsurface profiles, obtained from a sandy agricultural site and a non-agricultural clay rich site. The highest mineralisation of [14C-methylen]glyphosate, with 9.3-14.7% degraded to 14CO2 within 3 months was found in the deepest sample from the clay site. In the deeper parts of the sandy profile high sorption and low desorption of glyphosate coincided with no or minor mineralisation indicating a limited glyphosate bioavailability. MCPA was readily mineralised except in the deepest samples from both sites. The highest MCPA mineralisation was detected just below the surface layers with 72% or 44% degraded to 14CO2 at the sandy or the clay sites, respectively. MCPA sorped to a minor extent in all samples and no indications of sorption-controlled mineralisation was revealed. None of the herbicides were mineralised under anoxic conditions.     

Effects of wildfire on runoff generating processes in northern Mongolia

Regional Environmental Change - Seasonal runoff generation in a headwater (~100 km2) of the mountainous Sugnugr Basin, situated within the discontinuous permafrost zone of...