Providing the numerical context for British casualty reduction targets

The first national target for reducing road accident casualties in Great Britain was set in 1987, the target year being 2000. As the year 2000 approached, preparations were made for setting a subsequent target, the target year being 2010. A major part of the preparation consisted of forecasting the number of casualties that might be expected in 2010, conditional upon predictions about how the volume of road travel by the various transport modes might change and the type of new road safety measures that the Government might introduce. The forecasts provided the numerical context for the casualty reduction target that the Government announced in March 2000.This paper summarises the statistical analyses of accident data from 1983 to 1998 upon which the forecasts were based, and compares the approach with alternatives that have been adopted elsewhere. It also describes how progress towards the target has been monitored annually, allowing the Government to judge whether additional efforts might be needed to achieve the target. This examination of the actual data from 1999 to 2007 shows how far the original forecasts have proved to be successful.The improvement of car secondary safety over the past 15 years has probably been the development that has had the most significant effect on the national casualty total. A statistical model is used to quantify this effect by analysis of accident data, and the results of the most recent analyses are included.     

The changing sociocultural context of wildlife conservation

We introduced a multilevel model of value shift to describe the changing social context of wildlife conservation. Our model depicts how cultural-level processes driven by modernization (e.g., increased wealth, education, and urbanization) affect changes in individual-level cognition that prompt a shift from domination to mutualism wildlife values. Domination values promote beliefs that wildlife should be used primarily to benefit humans, whereas mutualism values adopt a view that wildlife are part of one's social network and worthy of care and compassion. Such shifts create emergent effects (e.g., new interest groups) and challenges to wildlife management organizations (e.g., increased conflict) and dramatically alter the sociopolitical context of conservation decisions. Although this model is likely applicable to many modernized countries, we tested it with data from a 2017–2018 nationwide survey (mail and email panel) of 43,949 residents in the United States. We conducted hierarchical linear modeling and correlational analysis to examine relationships. Modernization variables had strong state-level effects on domination and mutualism. Higher levels of education, income, and urbanization were associated with higher percentages of mutualists and lower percentages of traditionalists, who have strong domination values. Values affected attitudes toward wildlife management challenges; for example, states with higher proportions of mutualists were less supportive of lethal control of wolves (Canis lupus) and had lower percentages of active hunters, who represent the traditional clientele of state wildlife agencies in the United States. We contend that agencies will need to embrace new strategies to engage and represent a growing segment of the public with mutualism values. Our model merits testing for application in other countries.     

Catalyzing sustainable fisheries management through behavior change interventions

Small-scale fisheries are an important livelihood and primary protein source for coastal communities in many of the poorest regions in the world, yet many are overfished and thus require effective and scalable management solutions. Positive ecological and socioeconomic responses to management typically lag behind immediate costs borne by fishers from fishing pressure reductions necessary for fisheries recovery. These short-term costs challenge the long-term success of these interventions. However, social marketing may increase perceptions of management benefits before ecological and socioeconomic benefits are fully realized, driving new social norms and ultimately long-term sustainable behavior change. By conducting underwater visual surveys to quantify ecological conditions and by conducting household surveys with community members to quantify their perceptions of management support and socioeconomic conditions, we assessed the impact of a standardized small-scale fisheries management intervention that was implemented across 41 sites in Brazil, Indonesia, and the Philippines. The intervention combines TURF reserves (community-based territorial use rights for fishing coupled with no-take marine reserves) with locally tailored social-marketing behavior change campaigns. Leveraging data across 22 indicators and 4 survey types, along with data from 3 control sites, we found that ecological and socioeconomic impacts varied and that communities supported the intervention and were already changing their fishing practices. These results suggest that communities were developing new social norms and fishing more sustainably before long-term ecological and socioeconomic benefits of fisheries management materialized.     

Pyrosequencing reveals bacteria carried in different wind-eroded sediments

Little is known about the microbial communities carried in wind-eroded sediments from various soil types and land management systems. The novel technique of pyrosequencing promises to expand our understanding of the microbial diversity of soils and eroded sediments because it can sequence 10 to 100 times more DNA fragments than previous techniques, providing enhanced exploration into what microbes are being lost from soil due to wind erosion. Our study evaluated the bacterial diversity of two types of wind-eroded sediments collected from three different organic-rich soils in Michigan using a portable field wind tunnel. The wind-eroded sediments evaluated were a coarse sized fraction with 66% of particles >106 μm (coarse eroded sediment) and a finer eroded sediment with 72% of particles <106 μm. Our findings suggested that (i) bacteria carried in the coarser sediment and fine dust were effective fingerprints of the source soil, although their distribution may vary depending on the soil characteristics because certain bacteria may be more protected in soil surfaces than others; (ii) coarser wind-eroded sediment showed higher bacterial diversity than fine dust in two of the three soils evaluated; and (iii) certain bacteria were more predominant in fine dust (, , and ) than coarse sediment ( and ), revealing different locations and niches of bacteria in soil, which, depending on wind erosion processes, can have important implications on the soil sustainability and functioning. Infrared spectroscopy showed that wind erosion preferentially removes particular kinds of C from the soil that are lost via fine dust. Our study shows that eroded sediments remove the active labile organic soil particulates containing key microorganisms involved in soil biogeochemical processes, which can have a negative impact on the quality and functioning of the source soil.     

Binational school-based monitoring of traffic-related air pollutants in El Paso, Texas (USA) and Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua (México)

Paired indoor and outdoor concentrations of fine and coarse particulate matter (PM), PM2.5 reflectance [black carbon(BC)], and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) were determined for sixteen weeks in 2008 at four elementary schools (two in high and two in low traffic density zones) in a U.S.-Mexico border community to aid a binational health effects study. Strong spatial heterogeneity was observed for all outdoor pollutant concentrations. Concentrations of all pollutants, except coarse PM, were higher in high traffic zones than in the respective low traffic zones. Black carbon and NO₂ appear to be better traffic indicators than fine PM. Indoor air pollution was found to be well associated with outdoor air pollution, although differences existed due to uncontrollable factors involving student activities and building/ventilation configurations. Results of this study indicate substantial spatial variability of pollutants in the region, suggesting that children’s exposures to these pollutants vary based on the location of their school.     

A performance-based system for the long-term management of municipal waste landfills

Landfills have been the dominant alternative for disposal of solid waste and there are tens of thousands of closed landfills throughout the world that require a long-term management strategy. In contrast to approaches based on time or target values, this paper describes a performance-based methodology for evaluation of post-closure care (PCC). Using the methodology, critical components of PCC at a landfill, including leachate and gas management, groundwater monitoring and cover integrity, are considered to determine whether a landfill meets defined conditions for functional stability and can transition from regulated PCC to a post-regulatory custodial care program representing de minimus care activities only. The methodology is predicated on understanding the biological, chemical, and physical behavior of a landfill and the presence of sufficient data to verify expected trends in landfill behavior. If an evaluation suggests that a change can be made to PCC, the landfill owner must perform confirmation monitoring and then surveillance monitoring at a decreasing frequency to verify that the change is protective of human health and the environment. A hypothetical case study showed that using the methodology to evaluate site-specific PCC requirements could result in increased environmental protection at comparable cost by spending available funds where they are most needed.     

How interdisciplinary is sustainability research? Analyzing the structure of an emerging scientific field

Sustainability research is expected to incorporate concepts, methods, and data from a diverse array of academic disciplines. We investigate the extent to which sustainability research lives up to this ideal of an interdisciplinary field. Using bibliometric data, we orient our study around the “tripartite model” of sustainability, which suggests that sustainability research should draw from the three “pillars” of the environmental, economic, and social sciences. We ask three questions: (i) is sustainability research truly more interdisciplinary than research generally, (ii) to what extent does research grounded in one pillar draw on research from the other two, and (iii) if certain disciplines or pillars are more interdisciplinary than others, then what explains this variation? Our results indicate that sustainability science, while more interdisciplinary than other scientific fields, falls short of the expectations inherent in the tripartite model. The pillar with the fewest articles published on sustainability—economics—is also the most integrative, while the pillar with the most articles—environmental sciences—draws the least from outside disciplines. But interdisciplinarity comes at a cost: sustainability research in economics and the social sciences is centered around a relatively small number of interdisciplinary journals, which may be becoming less valued over time. These findings suggest that, if sustainability research is to live up to its interdisciplinary ideals, researchers must be provided with greater incentives to draw from fields other than their own.     

Sample Design Considerations for Indoor Air Exposure Surveys

Concern about the potential for indoor air pollution has prompted recent surveys of radon and NO₂ concentrations In homes and personal exposure studies of volatile organics, carbon monoxide and pesticides, to name a few. The statistical problems in designing sample surveys that measure the physical environment are diverse and more complicated than those encountered in traditional surveys of human attitudes and attributes. This paper addresses issues encountered when designing indoor air quality (IAQ) studies. General statistical concepts related to target population definition, frame creation, and sample selection for area household surveys and telephone surveys are presented. The implications of different measurement approaches are discussed, and response rate considerations are described.     

Integrating Remote Sensing and Local Vegetation Information for a High-Resolution Biogenic Emissions Inventory— Application to an Urbanized,Semiarid Region

ABSTRACT

This paper presents a methodology for the development of a high-resolution (30-m), standardized biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions inventory and a subsequent application of the methodology to Tucson, AZ. The region's heterogeneous vegetation cover cannot be modeled accurately with low-resolution (e.g., 1-km) land cover and vegetation information. Instead, local vegetation data are used in conjunction with multispectral satellite data to generate a detailed vegetation-based land-cover database of the region. A high-resolution emissions inventory is assembled by associating the vegetation data with appropriate emissions factors. The inventory reveals a substantial variation in BVOC emissions across the region, resulting from the region's diversity of both native and exotic vegetation.

The importance of BVOC emissions from forest lands, desert lands, and the urban forest changes according to regional, metropolitan, and urban scales. Within the entire Tucson region, the average isoprene, monoterpene, and     

The impact of zero-valent iron nanoparticles upon soil microbial communities is context dependent

Nanosized zero-valent iron (nZVI) is an effective land remediation tool, but there remains little information regarding its impact upon and interactions with the soil microbial community. nZVI stabilised with sodium carboxymethyl cellulose was applied to soils of three contrasting textures and organic matter contents to determine impacts on soil microbial biomass, phenotypic (phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA)), and functional (multiple substrate-induced respiration (MSIR)) profiles. The nZVI significantly reduced microbial biomass by 29 % but only where soil was amended with 5 % straw. Effects of nZVI on MSIR profiles were only evident in the clay soils and were independent of organic matter content. PLFA profiling indicated that the soil microbial community structure in sandy soils were apparently the most, and clay soils the least, vulnerable to nZVI suggesting a protective effect imparted by clays. Evidence of nZVI bactericidal effects on Gram-negative bacteria and a potential reduction of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi are presented. Data imply that the impact of nZVI on soil microbial communities is dependent on organic matter content and soil mineral type. Thereby, evaluations of nZVI toxicity on soil microbial communities should consider context. The reduction of AM fungi following nZVI application may have implications for land remediation.