Risks, risk taking, and societal decisions

Risk assessment is an important tool to help evaluate the appropriate course for social decisions. But this methodology does not appear to have played a significant role in such decisions. Moreover, public decisions often appear to be at wide variance with what course risk assessment would counsel. In this paper risk is defined, the nature of risk taking is examined, and risk assessment issues in terms of societal decisions are identified. Eight such issues are listed as technical challenges for risk assessors to take into consideration if their analyses are to be more successful in influencing public policy. Finally, the paper suggests two operative guidelines to improve the effectiveness of risk assessment influence on social decisions. One is to recognize that risk assessment is only one input, albeit an important one, to such decisions. The other is to strive for simplicity without loss of completeness or exactness.     

Assessment of nitrogen leaching from arable land in large river basins: Part II: regionalisation using fuzzy rule based modelling

This study deals with fuzzy rule based modelling of nitrogen (N)-leaching from arable land. Main purpose is the elaboration of a method, which allows dynamical regionalisation of results from process-based models for large regions and can be efficiently included in metamodels or decision support systems for rapid integrated assessment of water resources. The paper is the second part of a two-part paper. In the first paper the distributed ecohydrological model SWIM had been applied to calculate and analyse nitrogen dynamics in arable soils for a set of representative natural and management conditions in the Saale River basin (Ecol. Model. (in press)). Here, in the second paper the results from those simulation experiments are used to define, train and validate fuzzy rule systems for the estimation of N-leaching. Nine fuzzy rule systems, specific for nine soil classes, were created from the simulation experiments, representing the conditions for the whole Saale River basin. The fuzzy rule systems operate on monthly time steps and consist of 15 rules and seven input variables each, which are compiled from time series of precipitation, percolation and evapotranspiration as well as from information about fertilizer and crop specific nitrogen uptake. Simulated annealing as a non-linear discrete optimisation method is used for automatic rule assessment. Validation of the fuzzy rule systems, carried out by split sampling of 30-year simulation period, shows satisfactory performance on an annual basis and good performance on the long-term basis with average correlation between SWIM-simulated and fuzzy rule-estimated N-leaching values of 0.78 and 0.94, respectively.     

Residential satisfaction in council housing

Planners' and architects' knowledge of the needs of users as well as their perceptions of the residential environment, has been commented on in many studies dealing with residential satisfaction. In this study—based on primary research in an area of council housing in Madrid—the main goal is the study of objective and subjective factors, on both physical and social levels, which influence council housing residents' satisfaction. A sample of 447 housewives responded to a questionaire, a multiple regression analysis of which showed that attachment to the neighbourhood and relationships with neighbours explained the greatest variance in residential satisfaction. Some methodological issues about the measurement of residential satisfaction are also discussed.     

An Evaluation of Daumod Model in Estimating Urban Background Concentrations

This article presents an evaluation of the performance of the urban atmospheric dispersion model (DAUMOD) in estimating nitrogen oxides (NO_x) background concentrations in Copenhagen. Estimations of hourly average (averaged over a year), mean daily and mean monthly concentrations of NO_x are compared with observed values for two years of data. The model slightly underestimates low hourly average values and overestimates high values. The cumulative frequency distribution of mean daily concentration obtained from model estimations is in good agreement with the obtained from observed data. We performed a statistical analysis to determine the agreement between estimated and observed concentration values. The results show that 95.8% of hourly average estimations, 86.8% of mean daily and 100% of monthly average concentrations are within a factor of two of the observed values. The normalised mean square error of predictions is +0.13 for hourly average estimations, +0.22 for mean daily values and +0.02 for monthly mean concentrations. The fractional bias values are: –0.049 for hourly mean estimations, –0.047 for mean daily values and –0.053 for monthly average estimations. The values of the statistical parameters allow us to consider that though estimations are lightly larger than the observed values, the model performance is acceptable.     

Survival and heterotrophic activities of Fraser River and Strait of Georgia bacterioplankton within the Fraser River plume

Although the majority of the autochthonous heterotrophic bacterioplankton of the lower Fraser River appear to be killed when placed in Strait of Georgia marine water, their marine counterparts within Strait of Georgia surface water remain viable when treated with Fraser River water. However, within the plume water which naturally results when the freshwater of the Fraser River mixes with marine water of the Strait of Georgia, a stimulation in glucose heterotrophic activities occurs within the salinity range of approximately 3–18S. These increased bacterioplankton activities may be a consequence of a better nutrient environment within plume waters as compared to either parent water.     

Sexual harassment and female gregariousness in the South American sea lion, Otaria flavescens

Most colonial pinnipeds form extreme clusters of breeding females that cannot be entirely explained by the distribution of sites for reproduction. Avoidance of male harassment has been postulated as an important determinant of reproductive aggregation in this group of mammals. Female gregariousness can reduce harassment by resident males by two mechanisms; directly by the 'dilution effect' or indirectly because resident males that defend large female groups are less harassing. In order to investigate the relationship between male harassment and female gregariousness in relation to the size of breeding groups, we analysed the behaviour of dominant males and their females in a breeding colony of Otaria flavescens. Females in large breeding groups received less harassment by resident males due to dilution effects and because males that defended a large group interacted less frequently with females than males with small groups.     

Loft features reveal the functioning of the young pigeon’s navigational system

It is thought that young homing pigeons are able to use information acquired en route for their initial homeward orientation. However, the cues involved and mechanisms utilised are under discussion. Blocking light-dependent route-specific information during the first leg of an outward journey detour, together with analysis of pigeons that were raised under different loft conditions, allowed us to correctly evaluate the functioning of this mechanism and, more generally, the navigational map of birds. Pigeons from the same stock were raised and kept in two different lofts. The birds in the experimental groups were transported to the release sites via detours, and light-dependent information was denied during the first half of the outward journey (no compass information was available). Control birds were transported by the most direct route and had access to all available information. In general, the results showed that the low-loft birds preferred to use magnetic compass cues, whereas the high-loft birds preferred to use navigational map cues to collect information of the first part of the outward journey. The impairments observed in the homing performances of the experimental groups highlight the reliability of information collected inside the map area. Relevant to an understanding of the route-reversal mechanism was the evidence that this mechanism is able to function in the absence of compass information (birds raised in a wind-exposed loft show a detour effect). In systems where directional information could be provided by multiple sources, processing and extracting accurate course trajectories through a common mechanism may prove more efficient and reliable.     

Fear in grasslands: the effect of Eurasian kestrels on skylark abundances

Predation has received considerable theoretical and empirical support in population regulation. The effect of predators, however, could be achieved in direct (killing) or indirect effects (such as displacement). In this paper, we explored the relationship between Eurasian kestrels Falco tinnunculus and skylarks Alauda arvensis in Mediterranean grasslands. First, we analysed the presence of skylarks in the kestrel diet over 9 years. We also compared a grassland area of experimentally increased kestrel density and a second grassland as control area to evaluate the direct or indirect effect on skylark abundance. We also considered two different habitats, grazed and ungrazed plots. If skylark abundance decreased as the kestrel breeding season progressed in high-density kestrel area compared with the control area, it would suggest a direct effect (predator hypothesis). If skylark abundance remains constant in both areas of contrasting kestrel density, it would suggest that skylarks avoid kestrels (avoidance hypothesis). We found that skylark abundance decreased in the kestrel area from the beginning of kestrel nest-box installation to recent years. The rate of skylark consumption decreased in a 9-year period as kestrel abundance increased, although the total amount skylark consumption did not show a decreasing trend. In addition, skylarks were more abundant in the kestrel-free area than in the kestrel area. Finally, we found that skylark abundance did not change through the kestrel breeding period in relation to grazing. We suggest that an increased breeding density of kestrels during their breeding period may force the skylarks to breed in other areas, which may explain the decline of their abundance.