Effect of climate change on fluxes of nitrogen from the Tovdal River basin, Norway, to adjoining marine areas

The mass transport model TEOTIL was used to project nitrate (NO3) fluxes from the Tovdal River basin, southernmost Norway, given four scenarios of climate change. Forests, uplands, and open water currently account for 90% of the NO3 flux. Climate scenarios for 2071-2100 suggest increased temperature by 2-4 degrees C and precipitation by 3-11%. Climate experiments and long-term monitoring were used to estimate future rates of nitrogen (N) leaching. More water will run through the terrestrial catchments during the winter but less will run in the spring. The annual NO3 flux from the Tovdal River to the adjoining Topdalsfjord is projected to remain unchanged, but with more NO3 delivered in the winter and less in the spring. Algal blooms in coastal waters can be expected to occur earlier in the year. Major sources of uncertainty are in the long-term fate of N stored in soil organic matter and the impacts of forest management.     

Projected stream water fluxes of NO3 and total organic carbon from the Storgama headwater catchment, Norway, under climate change and reduced acid deposition

Fluctuations in the 20-year record of nitrate (NO3) and total organic carbon (TOC) concentrations and fluxes in runoff at the small headwater catchment Storgama, southern Norway, were related to climate and acid deposition. The long-term decline in NO3 related to reduced NO3 deposition and increased winter discharge, whereas the long-term increase in TOC related to reduced sulfur deposition. Multiple regression models describing long-term trends and seasonal variability in these records were used to project future concentrations given scenarios of climate change and acid deposition. All scenarios indicated reduced NO3 fluxes and increased TOC fluxes; the largest projected changes for the period 2071-2100 were -86% and +24%, respectively. Uncertainties are that the predicted future temperatures are considerably higher than the historical record. Also, nonlinear responses of ecosystem processes (nitrogen [N] mineralization) to temperature, N-enrichment of soils, and step-changes in environmental conditions may affect future leaching of carbon and N.     

Cost/Benefit Considerations for Recent Saltcedar Control,Middle Pecos River,New Mexico

Major benefits were weighed against major costs associated with recent saltcedar control efforts along the Middle Pecos River, New Mexico. The area of study was restricted to both sides of the channel and excluded tributaries along the 370 km between Sumner and Brantley dams. Direct costs (helicopter spraying, dead tree removal, and revegetation) within the study area were estimated to be $2.2 million but possibly rising to $6.4 million with the adoption of an aggressive revegetation program. Indirect costs associated with increased potential for erosion and reservoir sedimentation would raise the costs due to increased evaporation from more extensive shallows in the Pecos River as it enters Brantley Reservoir. Actions such as dredging are unlikely given the conservative amount of sediment calculated (about 1% of the reservoir pool). The potential for water salvage was identified as the only tangible benefit likely to be realized under the current control strategy. Estimates of evapotranspiration (ET) using Landsat TM data allowed estimation of potential water salvage as the difference in ET before and after treatment, an amount totaling 7.41 million m³ (6010 acre-ft) per year. Previous saltcedar control efforts of roughly the same magnitude found that salvaged ET recharged groundwater and no additional flows were realized within the river. Thus, the value of this recharge is probably less than the lowest value quoted for actual in-channel flow, and estimated to be < $63,000 per year. Though couched in terms of costs and benefits, this paper is focused on what can be considered the key trade-off under a complete eradication strategy: water salvage vs. erosion and sedimentation. It differs from previous efforts by focusing on evaluating the impacts of actual control efforts within a specific system. Total costs (direct plus potential indirect) far outweighed benefits in this simple comparison and are expected to be ongoing. Problems induced by saltcedar control may permanently reduce reservoir capacity and increase reservoir evaporation rates, which could further deplete supplies on this water short system. These potential negative consequences highlight that such costs and benefits need to be considered before initiating extensive saltcedar control programs on river systems of the western United States.     

Sequential concentration of bacteria and viruses from marine waters using a dual membrane system

The ability to rapidly and effectively concentrate diverse microbes is an essential component for monitoring water quality at recreational beaches. The purpose of this study was to develop a 0.45 microm pore size dual membrane system, which can sequentially concentrate both viruses and bacteria. The top PVDF membrane was used to filter bacteria by physical straining while the bottom HA membrane retained viruses through adsorption. The recovery of this system was assessed using test organisms: enterococci and somatic coliphage. Volumes of 100 to 400 mL of unspiked and sewage-spiked beach water were filtered through both types of membranes. The PVDF membrane recovered statistically equivalent amounts of enterococci when compared to traditional membranes. All of the coliphage passed through the PVDF membrane, while 22% passed through the HA membrane. Increasing the volume from 100 to 400 mL did not significantly influence recoveries. Up to 35% of coliphage was eluted from the bottom membrane using beef extract solution. Rinsing bottom membranes with 0.5 mmol L(-1) H(2)S0(4) was found to deactivate somatic coliphage. This research demonstrates the potential of using a dual membrane adsorption system for the concentration of both bacteria and viruses from recreational beaches. A proposed bi-layer filtration system can be designed for simultaneous bacteria and virus filtration. Future experiments should focus on measurements utilizing additional bacteria and viruses.     

Long‐Term High‐Resolution Radar Rainfall Fields for Urban Hydrology

Accurate records of high‐resolution rainfall fields are essential in urban hydrology, and are lacking in many areas. We develop a high‐resolution (15 min, 1 km²) radar rainfall data set for Charlotte, North Carolina during the 2001‐2010 period using the Hydro‐NEXRAD system with radar reflectivity from the National Weather Service Weather Surveillance Radar 1988 Doppler weather radar located in Greer, South Carolina. A dense network of 71 rain gages is used for estimating and correcting radar rainfall biases. Radar rainfall estimates with daily mean field bias (MFB) correction accurately capture the spatial and temporal structure of extreme rainfall, but bias correction at finer timescales can improve cold‐season and tropical cyclone rainfall estimates. Approximately 25 rain gages are sufficient to estimate daily MFB over an area of at least 2,500 km², suggesting that robust bias correction is feasible in many urban areas. Conditional (rain‐rate dependent) bias can be removed, but at the expense of other performance criteria such as mean square error. Hydro‐NEXRAD radar rainfall estimates are also compared with the coarser resolution (hourly, 16 km²) Stage IV operational rainfall product. Stage IV is adequate for flood water balance studies but is insufficient for applications such as urban flood modeling, in which the temporal and spatial scales of relevant hydrologic processes are short. We recommend the increased use of high‐resolution radar rainfall fields in urban hydrology.     

Brood reduction in response to manipulated brood sizes in the common swift (Apus apus)

Following a brood size manipulation experiment on the common swift (Apus apus) in which different levels of parental effort were created, brood reduction occurred in all five nests manipulated to four chicks and in two of the five manipulated to three young. This provided an opportunity for looking in detail at the parental investment decisions concerning allocation strategies between parent and young during the process of brood reduction. The data recorded here were analysed on a visit-by-visit basis regarding changes in parental and chick body masses, the mass of prey delivered and the estimated mass of parental self-feeding. The results show that food delivery rates did not increase in proportion to the number of chicks in the broods. This reduction in delivery rates per chick resulted in lower chick masses and ultimately in the death of one or more chicks in the larger broods. The resulting low parental body masses for adult birds feeding larger broods suggested that these parents could not have raised all their young without risking their own survival. There was a tendency for parents from nests that experienced brood reduction to feed themselves instead of allocating most of the food gathered to the young. After brood reduction, parents regained lost body mass and their young fledged at masses only slightly lower than normal. The differential allocation decisions regarding parental self-feeding which resulted in brood reduction were largely responsible for keeping the parents in good enough condition to care for the surviving nestlings. Therefore, this study clearly demonstrates that brood reduction can operate through the differential allocation of food between parent and young in a way that can have adaptive consequences for the survival of parents and their young. Correspondence to: T.L.F. Martins     

Terrestrial ecosystem recovery--modelling the effects of reduced acidic inputs and increased inputs of sea-salts induced by global change

The reduced emissions of acidifying sulfur and nitrogen in Europe since the late 1970s will be further reduced when the Gothenburg protocol is fully implemented by 2010. Here we address the consequences for the recovery of acidified terrestrial ecosystems using the acidification model MAGIC applied to 3 large-scale "clean rain" experiments, the so-called roof experiments at Risdalsheia, Norway; G?rdsj?n, Sweden, and Klosterhede, Denmark. Implementation of the Gothenburg protocol will initiate recovery of the soils at all 3 sites by rebuilding base saturation. The rate of recovery is small and base saturation increases less than 5% over the next 30 years. A climate-induced increase in storm severity will increase the sea-salt input to the ecosystems. This will provide additional base cations to the soils and more than double the rate of the recovery, but also lead to strong acid pulses following high sea-salt inputs as the deposited base cations exchange with the acidity stored in the soil. Future recovery of soils and runoff at acidified catchments will thus depend on the amount and rate of reduction of acid deposition, and in the case of systems near the coast, the frequency and intensity of sea-salt episodes as well.     

RIVPACS models for predicting the expected macroinvertebrate fauna and assessing the ecological quality of rivers

The European Union Water Framework Directive recognises the need for and value of biological monitoring. This paper reviews the modelling approach known as River Invertebrate Prediction and Classification System (RIVPACS for assessing the ecological quality of river sites using macroinvertebrate sampling. The RIVPACS philosophy is to develop statistical relationships between the fauna and the environmental characteristics of a large set of high quality reference sites which can be used to predict the macroinvertebrate fauna to be expected at any site in the absence of pollution or other environmental stress. The observed fauna at new test sites can then be compared with their site-specific expected fauna to derive indices of ecological quality. All methodological decisions in any such model development have implications for the reliability, precision and robustness of any resulting indices for assessing the ecological quality and ecological grade (‘status’) of individual river stretches. The choice of reference sites and environmental predictor variables, the site classification and discrimination methods, the estimation of the expected fauna, and indices for comparing the agreement, or lack of it, between the observed and expected fauna, are all discussed. The indices are assessed on the reference sites and on a separate test set of 340 sites, which are subject to a wide range of types and degrees of impairment.