就业创造还是就业替代——OFDI对中国就业影响的区域差异研究

进入21世纪以来,中国对外直接投资规模迅猛增长,成为影响中国经济发展越来越重要的因素,是吸纳劳动力就业和提高劳动力素质的一条新途径。对外直接投资的母国就业效应随着时间和地区的不同主要表现为就业创造效应和就业替代效应。本文利用中国30个省份2003-2010年的面板数据,考察了对外直接投资对国内就业的影响,以及这种影响在各个地区之间的差异。结果表明,从全国范围来看,对外直接投资对就业的创造效应要大于替代效应。由于我国对外直接投资发展存在着区域非均衡性,使得各地区对外直接投资对就业的影响存在着差异,东部地区对外直接投资对就业的创造效应大于替代效应。中部地区两种效应大体相当,二者相抵后表现出不确定效应。而西部地区对外直接投资由于起步较晚,目前对就业的影响主要表现为替代作用。因此,政府在制定对外直接投资促进政策时,应该更为注重区域的分类和细化,引导我国对外直接投资的区域均衡发展,以改善区域就业结构。     

Spatial-temporal analysis of wetland landscape pattern under the influence of artificial dykes in the Yellow River delta

The influence of anthropogenic activities,especially artificial dykes,on the coastal wetland landscape is now considered as a serious problem to the coastal ecosystem.It is important and necessary to analyze changes of coastal landscape pattern under the influence of artificial dykes for the protection and management of coastal wetland.Our study aimed to reveal the quantitative characteristics of the coastal wetland landscape and its spatial-temporal dynamics under the influence of artificial dykes in the Yellow River delta(YRD).It was analyzed by the methods of the statistical analysis of landscape structure,five selected landscape indices and the changes of spatial centroids of three typical wetland types,including reed marshes,tidal fiats and aquaculture-salt fields.The results showed that:(1)Reduction of wetland area,especially the degradation of natural wetlands,had been the principal problem since the dykes were constructed in the YRD.The dykes created conditions for the development of artificial wetlands.However,the new born artificial wetlands were still less than the vanished natural wetlands.(2)Compared with the open area,the building of artificial dykes significantly speeded up the changes of landscape patterns and the aggravation of the landscape fragmentation in the closed area.(3)The changes of area-weighted centroids of three typical wetland landscapes were greatly affected by dykes,and the movement of the centroid of the aquaculture-salt field was very sensitive to the dykes constructed in the corresponding period.     

Urbanization in China Based on International Comparison: A Discussion with Two Prevalent Views

Abstract>

Two prevalent views are reviewed on China’s urbanization firstly. Then, this article highlights the characteristics and pattern of urbanization in the world based on the quadrants map, using data of 118 countries or areas. The results indicate that the process of urbanization in the world excluding the data of China has slowed down gradually. A further exploration examines China’s urbanization process and economic development over time, which reveals that both urbanization level and the level of economic development belong to the low-grade coordination pattern. The low level of urbanization is closely connected with the low level of economic development. Actually, China’s urbanization gap appeared during 1985–1995, but it has been eliminating this urbanization gap since 1995 as a result of rapid urbanization growing. The complicated realities revealed in this analysis challenge the existing two prevalent views.     

清洁发展机制与中国对策

清洁发展机制是应对气候变化国际法律制度之下的补充性履约措施。通过阐述清洁发展机制的渊源、清洁发展机制的实质内涵和基本特征,总结中国清洁发展机制项目实践,揭示中国应用清洁发展机制的偏差,预测清洁发展机制发展方向,指出中国将被迫退出清洁发展机制,提出中国面向清洁发展机制的具体对策。     

Rank regression analysis of correlated water quality data from South East Queensland

With growing population and fast urbanization in Australia, it is a challenging task to maintain our water quality. It is essential to develop an appropriate statistical methodology in analyzing water quality data in order to draw valid conclusions and hence provide useful advices in water management. This paper is to develop robust rank-based procedures for analyzing nonnormally distributed data collected over time at different sites. To take account of temporal correlations of the observations within sites, we consider the optimally combined estimating functions proposed by Wang and Zhu (Biometrika, 93:459–464, 2006) which leads to more efficient parameter estimation. Furthermore, we apply the induced smoothing method to reduce the computational burden. Smoothing leads to easy calculation of the parameter estimates and their variance-covariance matrix. Analysis of water quality data from Total Iron and Total Cyanophytes shows the differences between the traditional generalized linear mixed models and rank regression models. Our analysis also demonstrates the advantages of the rank regression models for analyzing nonnormal data.     

Bradford法测定土壤球囊霉素相关蛋白的影响因子

土壤球囊霉素相关蛋白(glomalin-related soil protein,GRSP)是评价土壤健康的重要指标。研究了土样粒径、贮存条件和高温提取后离心延误时间3个影响因子对采用Bradford法测定GRSP含量的作用效果。结果表明,土样粒径对易提取GRSP(EEG)的提取测定影响显著,过0.074 mm孔径筛土样中提取出的EEG含量高于过0.149、0.25、1 mm孔径筛的土样;总GRSP(TG)含量的测定结果对土样粒径的变化没有明显响应,测定TG含量可采用过1 mm孔径筛的土样。贮存条件影响EEG和TG含量的测定,有机质含量低的土样室温保存18个月条件下测得的EEG含量低于-20℃保存条件下;有机质含量高的土样室温保存条件下测得的EEG含量高于-20℃保存条件下;室温保存条件下3个有机质含量水平的土样TG含量均高于-20℃保存条件下。不同样品保存方式间3个有机质含量水平的土样EEG或TG含量差异均显著。为减小有机质降解等的影响,宜低温保存土样。提取后延误离心将导致EEG含量测定值降低,因此延误时间以控制在1 h之内为宜;离心延误2 h内不同延误时间之间测得的TG含量无显著差异。     

Comprehensive and high-resolution emission inventory of atmospheric pollutants for the northernmost cities agglomeration of Harbin-Changchun, China: Implications for local atmospheric environment management

Using a bottom-up estimation method, a comprehensive, high-resolution emission inventory of gaseous and particulate atmospheric pollutants for multiple anthropogenic sectors with typical local sources has been developed for the Harbin-Changchun city agglomeration (HCA). The annual emissions for CO, NOx, SO₂, NH₃, VOC_S, PM_2.5, PM₁₀, BC and OC during 2017 in the HCA were estimated to be 5.82 Tg, 0.70 Tg, 0.34 Tg, 0.75 Tg, 0.81Tg, 0.67 Tg, 1.59 Tg, 0.12 Tg and 0.26 Tg, respectively. For PM₁₀ and SO₂, the emissions from industry processes were the dominant contributors representing 54.7% and 49.5%, respectively, of the total emissions, while 95.3% and 44.5% of the total NH₃ and NOx emissions, respectively, were from or associated with agricultural activities and transportation. Spatiotemporal distributions showed that most emissions (except NH₃) occurred in November to March and were concentrated in the central cities of Changchun and Harbin and the surrounding cities. Open burning of straw made an important contribution to PM_2.5 in the central regions of the northeastern plain during autumn and spring, while domestic coal combustion for heating purposes was significant with respect to SO₂ and PM_2.5 emissions during autumn and winter. Furthermore, based on Principal Component Analysis and Multivariable Linear Regression model, air temperature, relative humidity, electricity and energy consumption, and the urban and rural population were optimized to be representative indicators for rapidly assessing the magnitude of regional atmospheric pollutants in the HCA. Such indicators and equations were demonstrated to be useful for local atmospheric environment management.     

Spatiotemporal variations of ambient air pollutants and meteorological influences over typical urban agglomerations in China during the COVID-19 lockdown

To investigate the air quality change during the COVID-19 pandemic, we analyzed spatiotemporal variations of six criteria pollutants in nine typical urban agglomerations in China using ground-based data and examined meteorological influences through correlation analysis and backward trajectory analysis under different responses. Concentrations of PM_2.5, PM₁₀, NO₂, SO₂ and CO in urban agglomerations respectively decreased by 18%–45% (30%–62%), 17%–53% (22%–39%), 47%-64% (14%–41%), 9%–34% (0%–53%) and 16%-52% (23%–56%) during Lockdown (Post-lockdown) period relative to Pre-lockdown period. PM_2.5 pollution events occurred during Lockdown in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebe (BTH) and Middle and South Liaoning (MSL), and daily O₃ concentration rose to grade Ⅱ standard in Post-lockdown period. Distinct from the nationwide slump of NO₂ during Lockdown period, a rebound (～40%) in Post-lockdown period was observed in Cheng-Yu (CY), Yangtze River Middle-Reach (YRMR), Yangtze River Delta (YRD) and Pearl River Delta (PRD). With slightly higher wind speed compared with 2019, the reduction of PM_2.5 (51%–62%) in Post-lockdown period is more than 2019 (15%–46%) in HC (Harbin-Changchun), MSL, BTH, CP (Central Plain) and SP (Shandong-Peninsula), suggesting lockdown measures are effective to PM_2.5 alleviation. Although O₃ concentrations generally increased during the lockdown, its increment rate declined compared with 2019 under similar sunlight duration and temperature. Additionally, unlike HC, MSL and BTH, which suffered from additional (> 30%) air masses from surrounding areas after the lockdown, the polluted air masses reaching YRD and PRD mostly originated from the long-distance transport, highlighting the importance of joint regional governance.     

Contents and sources of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and organochlorine pesticides in vegetable soils of Guangzhou, China

We investigated contents, distribution and possible sources of PAHs and organochlorine pesticides (Ops) in 43 surface and subsurface soils around the urban Guangzhou where variable kinds of vegetables are grown. The results indicate that the contents of PAHs (16 US EPA priority PAHs) range from 42 to 3077 microg/kg and the pollution extent is classified as a moderate level in comparison with other investigations and soil quality standards. The ratios of methylphenanthrenes to phenanthrene(MP/P), anthracene to anthracene plus phenanthrene (An/178), benz[a]anthracene to benz[a]anthracene plus chrysene (BaA/228), indeno[1,2,3-cd]pyrene to indeno[1,2,3-cd]pyrene plus benzo[ghi]perylene (In/In+BP) suggest that the sources of PAHs in the soil samples are mixed with a dominant contribution from petroleum and combustion of fossil fuel. The correlation analysis shows that the PAHs contents are significantly related to total organic carbon contents (TOC) (R2=0.75) and black carbon contents (BC) (R2=0.62) in the soil samples. Dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane and metabolites (DDTs) and hexachlorocyclohexanes and metabolites (HCHs) account largely for the contaminants of OPs. The concentrations of DDTs range from 3.58 to 831 microg/kg and the ratios for DDT/(DDD+DDE) are higher than 2 in some soil samples, suggesting that DDT contamination still exists and may be caused by its persistence in soils and/or impurity in the pesticide dicofol. The concentrations of HCHs are 0.19-42.3 microg/kg.     

云南气象灾害的时空分布规律

云南主要的气象灾害有旱灾、洪灾、冷灾、雹灾、风灾和雷灾等6类,它们造成的经济损失超过地震灾害和地质灾害,是云南最大的自然灾害.6种主要气象灾害有明显的时空分布特征.旱灾区主要集中在滇东北、滇东、滇北和滇中地区;洪灾区主要集中在滇东北、滇东南、滇南和滇西南地区;冷灾区主要分布在滇东北、滇西北、滇东和滇中地区;雹灾区主要分布在滇东北、滇东、滇南、滇西北以及滇中局部地区;风灾区主要集中在滇东北、滇南地区;雷灾区主要集中在滇南、滇东南及滇北局部地区.旱灾以春季和初夏最为严重,洪灾主要出现在夏季和秋季,冷灾主要出现在冬春季和夏季,雹灾主要出现在春季和夏季,风灾主要出现在春季和夏季,雷灾主要出现在夏季和春季.