Challenges and Opportunities for Creating Intelligent Hazard Alerts: The “FloodHippo” Prototype

Disasters evolving from hazards are a persistent and deadly occurrence in the United States. Despite this, hazard alerts have remained spatially vague, temporally imprecise, and lack actionable information. These deficiencies indicate a divide between the status quo and what is possible given modern environmental models, geographic information systems (GIS), and smartphone capabilities. This work describes an alternative, prototype system, “FloodHippo,” which integrates operational model outputs, cloud‐based GIS, and expanded communication channels to provide personal and interactive disaster alerts for floods. The precepts and methods underpinning FloodHippo apply equally to other disasters that evolve over space and time, presenting the opportunity for a more intelligent disaster response system. The development of such a system would not only minimize current shortcomings in disaster alerts but also improve resilience through individual action, along with community, academic, and federal cooperation.     

Establishing a Regional Monitoring Strategy: The Pacific Northwest Forest Plan

adaptive monitoring design. Adaptive monitoring design is an iterative process that refines the specifications for monitoring over time as a result of experience in implementing a monitoring program, assessing results, and interacting with users. An adaptive design therefore facilitates ecosystem management. We also discuss lessons of temporal and spatial scales raised by the consideration of a design for ecosystem management. Three additional issues—integration of information from different sources, institutional infrastructure, and the roles of individuals working in an interagency setting—are also identified, but not developed in detail.     

RESEARCH: Comparison of Temporal Trends in Ambient and Compliance Trace Element and PCB Data in Pool 2 of the Mississippi River, USA, 1985–1995

6+ ), copper (Cu), lead (Pb), mercury (Hg), nickel (Ni), selenium (Se), zinc (Zn), and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). Water-column, bed-sediment, and fish-tissue (fillets) data collected by five government agencies comprised the ambient data set; effluent data from five registered facilities comprised the compliance data set. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall trend test indicated that 33% of temporal trends in all data were statistically significant (P < 0.05). Possible reasons for this were low sample sizes, and a high percentage of samples below the analytical detection limit. Trends in compliance data were more distinct; most trace elements decreased significantly, probably due to improvements in wastewater treatment. Seven trace elements (Cr, Cd, Cu, Pb, Hg, Ni, and Zn) had statistically significant decreases in wastewater and portions of either or both ambient water and bed sediment. No trends were found in fish tissue. Inconsistency in trends between ambient and compliance data were often found for individual constituents, making overall similarity between the data sets difficult to determine. Logistical differences in monitoring programs, such as varying field and laboratory methods among agencies, made it difficult to assess ambient temporal trends.     

POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURAL WATER USE IN THE SOUTHEAST U.S.1

ABSTRACT: Climate change has the potential to have dramatic effects on the agricultural sector nationally and internationally as documented in many research papers. This paper reports on research that was focused on a specific crop growing area to demonstrate how farm managers might respond to climate-induced yield changes and the implications of these responses for agricultural water use. The Hadley model was used to generate climate scenarios for important agricultural areas of Georgia in 2030 and 2090. Linked crop response models indicated generally positive yield changes, as increased temperatures were associated with increased precipitation and CO2. Using a farm management model, differences in climate-induced yield impacts among crops led to changes in crop mix and associated water use; non-irrigated cropland received greater benefit since irrigated land was already receiving adequate moisture. Model results suggest that farm managers will increase cropping intensity by decreasing fallowing and increasing double cropping; corn acreage decreased dramatically, peanuts decreased moderately and cotton and winter wheat increased. Water use on currently irrigated cropland fell. The potential for increased water use through conversion of agriculturally important, but currently non-irrigated, growing areas is substantial.     

Identification of a floral-derived kairomone for currant clearwing, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Synanthedon tipuliformis</Emphasis>

The currant clearwing Synanthedon tipuliformis (Clerck) (Sesiidae) is a worldwide pest of black currants, Ribes nigrum. This moth has been observed to feed on nectar of inflorescences of Canada thistles, Cirsium arvense (L.) Scop. This work was undertaken to identify floral compound(s) produced by Canada thistles inflorescences that mediate the response of the currant clearwing. Floral volatiles were collected during the day and analysed by coupled gas chromatography/electroantennographic detection (GC/EAD) and gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS). Three compounds consistently elicited EAD response from moth antennae and were identified by GC/MS as phenylacetaldehyde, methyl salicylate and dimethyl salicylate. When the compounds were tested individually or in various combinations in field trapping experiments, a 3-component blend attracted the largest number of female and male currant clearwings. Subsequent field trapping experiments were conducted to determine the optimal attraction dose for the ternary blend using three loadings of 1, 10 and 100 mg loaded into a polyethylene sachet. The highest catches were in traps baited with the 100 mg loading. In all trials, males and mated females were caught in significant numbers, while very low numbers of virgin females were found in the traps. In recent years the efficacy of mating disruption against currant clearwing has been reported as declining. The new kairomone blend identified in this study can be used with the sex pheromone to provide an effective control option for this important pest.     

Air‐Water Temperature Relationships in the Trout Streams of Southeastern Minnesota's Carbonate‐Sandstone Landscape

Carbonate‐sandstone geology in southeastern Minnesota creates a heterogeneous landscape of springs, seeps, and sinkholes that supply groundwater into streams. Air temperatures are effective predictors of water temperature in surface‐water dominated streams. However, no published work investigates the relationship between air and water temperatures in groundwater‐fed streams (GWFS) across watersheds. We used simple linear regressions to examine weekly air‐water temperature relationships for 40 GWFS in southeastern Minnesota. A 40‐stream, composite linear regression model has a slope of 0.38, an intercept of 6.63, and R² of 0.83. The regression models for GWFS have lower slopes and higher intercepts in comparison to surface‐water dominated streams. Regression models for streams with high R² values offer promise for use as predictive tools for future climate conditions. Climate change is expected to alter the thermal regime of groundwater‐fed systems, but will do so at a slower rate than surface‐water dominated systems. A regression model of intercept vs. slope can be used to identify streams for which water temperatures are more meteorologically than groundwater controlled, and thus more vulnerable to climate change. Such relationships can be used to guide restoration vs. management strategies to protect trout streams.     

Unexpected high PCB and total DDT levels in the breeding population of red kite (Milvus milvus) from Doñana National Park, south-western Spain

This study provides information on the current status of contamination by organochlorines (DDTs, PCBs, PCDDs and PCDFs) in the declining red kite (Milvus milvus L.) population breeding in the Do?ana National Park (DNP), south-western Spain. Analyses were performed in addled eggs collected between 1999 and 2001. DDE concentrations ranged from 0.1 to 33.5 microg/g ww, representing more than 86% of the total DDTs. Of the samples studied, 50% showed DDE levels above those associated with reproductive impairment in other raptor species. Concentrations of ortho PCBs (average 36.8 microg/g ww+/-37.7) in 50% of the eggs were much higher than levels reported to cause reduced hatching success, embryo mortality, and deformities in birds (>20 microg/g ww). It is remarkable that average ortho PCB and DDE concentrations showed an increase of one order of magnitude compared to previous data for the species during the 80s. Total PCDD/Fs showed levels in the low pg/g range (7.2-42 pg/g ww), having PCDDs and PCDFs similar contributions in most samples. Total mean TEQs were 238 pg/g (ww), being the range 7.02-667 pg/g (ww). Spatial variation within DNP was observed for PCBs, DDTs, as well as for TEQs. Since some eggs exceeded the NOEL (67%) and LOEL (33%) reported for other raptor species, we would expect the red kite to experience detrimental effects to dioxin-like toxicity. Our results suggest that organochlorine contaminants should be regarded as an element of concern in the population under study, in addition to other conservation problems already reported. Further investigations should be undertaken to identify potential sources of these chemicals in DNP, and to find out if organochlorine contamination is present in other predator species in the area, as well as their potential health effects on individuals and/or populations.     

Phosphorus and nitrogen in runoff after phosphorus- or nitrogen-based manure applications

Application of beef cattle () manure based on nitrogen (N) requirements of crops has resulted in elevated concentrations of soil test phosphorus (P) in surface soils, and runoff from this cropland can contribute to eutrophication of surface waters. We conducted a 3-yr field study (2005-2007) on a Lethbridge loam soil cropped to dryland barley () in southern Alberta, Canada to evaluate the effect of annual and triennial P-based and annual N-based feedlot manure on P and N in runoff. The manure was spring applied and incorporated. There was one unamended control plot. A portable rainfall simulator was used to generate runoff in the spring of each year after recent manure incorporation, and the runoff was analyzed for total P, total dissolved P, total particulate P, dissolved reactive P, total N, total dissolved N, total particulate N, NO-N, and NH-N. Annual or triennial P-based application resulted in significantly ( ≤ 0.05) lower (by 50 to 94%) concentrations or loads of mainly dissolved P fractions in runoff for some years compared with annual N-based application, and this was related to lower rates of annual manure P applied. For example, mean dissolved reactive P concentrations in 2006 and 2007 were significantly lower for the annual P-based (0.12-0.20 mg L) than for the annual N-based application (0.24-0.48 mg L), and mean values were significantly lower for the triennial P-based (0.06-0.13 mg L) than for the annual N-based application. In contrast, other P fractions in runoff were unaffected by annual P-based application. Our findings suggested no environmental benefit of annual P-based application over triennial P-based application with respect to P and N in runoff. Similar concentrations and loads of N fractions in runoff for the P- and N-based applications indicated that shifting to a P-based application would not significantly influence N in runoff.     

A uniform fish consumption advisory protocol for the Ohio River

ORSANCO and the six Ohio River main stem states have been working to align states' fish consumption advisories (FCAs) to enhance the value of advice issued to the public. To achieve this goal, ORSANCO worked closely with a panel consisting of state and USEPA representatives. The result of this effort is the Ohio River Fish Consumption Advisory Protocol (ORFCAP). The ORFCAP represents a single set of variables agreed upon by the panel that allows for a standardized protocol to create advisory thresholds to which states can defer to issue consumption advice for the Ohio River. The ORFCAP identifies ORSANCO as a clearinghouse for data which will be distributed to the panel for decision making. Other components include identifying primary contaminants of concern (PCBs and mercury) and dividing the river into four reporting units. The protocol was developed to issue FCAs for the protection of sensitive populations using five advisory groupings for PCBs and four for mercury. Specific variables used in the calculation of advisory thresholds such as health protection values, cooking reductions, average meal sizes, etc., were selected by the panel. Lastly, the protocol calls for FCA decisions to be based on analysis of the most recent 10?years of data for each species in each reporting unit to determine size class needs and advisory groupings. Upon pending implementation of the protocol by the main stem states, these decisions will be made annually through a series of discussions involving ORSANCO, the panel, and other appropriate state personnel.