Simulating and delineating future land change trajectories across Europe

Explorations of future land use change are important to understand potential conflicts between competing land uses, trade-offs associated with particular land change trajectories, and the effectiveness of policies to steer land systems into desirable states. Most model-based explorations and scenario studies focused on conversions in broad land use classes, but disregarded changes in land management or focused on individual sectors only. Using the European Union (EU) as a case study, we developed an approach to identifying typical combinations of land cover and management changes by combining the results of multimodel simulations in the agriculture and forest sectors for four scenarios from 2000 to 2040. We visualized land change trajectories by mapping regional hotspots of change. Land change trajectories differed in extent and spatial pattern across the EU and among scenarios, indicating trajectory-specific option spaces for alternative land system outcomes. In spite of the large variation in the area of change, similar hotspots of land change were observed among the scenarios. All scenarios indicate a stronger polarization of land use in Europe, with a loss of multifunctional landscapes. We analyzed locations subject to change by comparing location characteristics associated with certain land change trajectories. Results indicate differences in the location conditions of different land change trajectories, with diverging impacts on ecosystem service provisioning. Policy and planning for future land use needs to account for the spatial variation of land change trajectories to achieve both overarching and location-specific targets.

     

Socio-environmental consideration of phosphorus flows in the urban sanitation chain of contrasting cities

Understanding how cities can transform organic waste into a valuable resource is critical to urban sustainability. The capture and recycling of phosphorus (P), and other essential nutrients, from human excreta is particularly important as an alternative organic fertilizer source for agriculture. However, the complex set of socio-environmental factors influencing urban human excreta management is not yet sufficiently integrated into sustainable P research. Here, we synthesize information about the pathways P can take through urban sanitation systems along with barriers and facilitators to P recycling across cities. We examine five case study cities by using a sanitation chains approach: Accra, Ghana; Buenos Aires, Argentina; Beijing, China; Baltimore, USA; and London, England. Our cross-city comparison shows that London and Baltimore recycle a larger percentage of P from human excreta back to agricultural lands than other cities, and that there is a large diversity in socio-environmental factors that affect the patterns of recycling observed across cities. Our research highlights conditions that may be “necessary but not sufficient” for P recycling, including access to capital resources. Path dependencies of large sanitation infrastructure investments in the Global North contrast with rapidly urbanizing cities in the Global South, which present opportunities for alternative sanitation development pathways. Understanding such city-specific social and environmental barriers to P recycling options could help address multiple interacting societal objectives related to sanitation and provide options for satisfying global agricultural nutrient demand.

     

Between Active Seekers and Non-Users: Segments of Science-related Media Usage in Switzerland and Germany

ABSTRACT

Citizens’ attitudes toward science are related to their use of science-related information from various sources. Evidence is scarce regarding citizens’ individual media repertoires for staying informed about science as segmentation studies so far have primarily focused on scientific attitudes. In this paper, we explore audience segments regarding their science-related information behavior and whether such segments are comparable or vary between two countries with similar information environments. Based on two surveys in Switzerland and Germany, we identify national audience segments that differ in their science-related information repertoires, and analyze their sociodemographic characteristics and science-related attitudes. In both countries, we find very comparable information user segments ranging from those who inform themselves frequently about science (“Active Seekers”/“Science Consumers”) to those who hardly get in contact with any information about science and research (“Non-Users”). Those segments which get in contact with information about science frequently show generally more positive attitudes.     

Life cycle assessment tool of electricity generation in Portugal

This paper investigates multi-stakeholder arrangements initiated by businesses and NGOs from the North that aim to enhance a more sustainable agricultural production at specific localities in Southern countries. We aim to better understand the search for concerted action in multi-actor arrangements. Therefore, this paper presents a diagnostic framework with three strategic challenges the partnership projects are facing: linking global economic objectives to local needs, values and interests; bridging public and private interests and responsibilities; and seeking trade-offs between social, environmental and economic values. Starting from the partnerships’ Theory of Change, this diagnostic framework is applied to comparative case studies of partnership projects in the cocoa sector in Indonesia, which are part of a Northern-based public–private partnership to improve farmers’ prospective. It is concluded that the economic reality faced by the farmers differs from that of the Northern actors; collaboration with governments is difficult because of different organizational cultures; and the partnership projects underestimate the strength of vested social relations the smallholders are part of. Overall, the initiators of the partnerships seem to work with a too restricted economic interpretation of the local reality.     

Challenges for modelling and integrating environmental performances in concept design: the case of an automotive component lightweighting

The objective of this paper is to discuss the main barriers for modelling and integrating the environmental performances in the automotive concept design. Incorporating environmental assessment in the early design phase of a vehicle component is known as an important challenge that car makers need to face in order to develop more sustainable design solutions; in this regard, the Life Cycle Assessment is the most widespread methodology for the environmental assessment and comparison of alternatives. The present work illustrates the combination of such methodology with the traditional design procedure at two different levels of the component design phase, material choice and concept design. In particular, the potential benefits originated by a lightweight solution for the automotive component Throttle Body are evaluated by considering environmental and technical implications at the same level. The case study shows that a multi-disciplinary approach for design effectively allows the integration of the environmental issue in the company’s established procedures. However, interpretation of results is still a challenging aspect due to the inevitable contradicting elements which should not discourage to develop comprehensive sustainability assessment within the early design stage.     

Sustainability indicators in the swine industry of the Brazilian State of Santa Catarina

In recent decades, there has been a growing concern about measuring and evaluating the results of intensive production practices, such as the mode of integration practiced on a large scale by agro-industries. The present study discusses the application and the results of a Sustainability Indicators System in the context of the swine industry in the Brazilian State of Santa Catarina. These indicators, focused on the level of sustainability maturity, can be used as a way to diagnose and compare the efficiency of the industry from a broader perspective. The research findings indicate that most of the pig farms that have been studied can be classified as “in search of sustainability or sustainable.” Nevertheless, there are differences among the dimensions and between the most ranked farms and the others which must be considered for a better design and application of public policies and company strategies toward an effective and balanced social, economic and environmental sustainability.     

Influence of Clear Fellings on the Bryophyte Component of the Broad-leaved Forests of the Bashkir Cis-Ural Region

The change in the composition of the bryophyte component of succession communities that occur in the process of natural regeneration at the site of clear felling of the indigenous elm—maple–linden forests of the Bashkir Cis-Ural Region has been studied. The vulnerability of species to the consequences of felling is affected by their substrate confinement, ecological amplitude in relation to the factors of temperature, humidity, variability of soil moisture, and type of life strategy. In the secondary aspen forests, the absence or low constancy of nemoral epiphytic and ground mosses was noted.     

Effects of Topographical Heterogeneity and Dispersal Limitation on Species Turnover in a Temperate Mountane Ecosystem: a Case Study in the Henan Province,China

Species turnover patterns can be inconsistent due to differences in the dispersal ability of different growth forms. Here, species of trees, shrubs, herbs, and bryophytes in the Xiaoqinling National Nature Reserve in China were analyzed to determine patterns of species turnover along an elevation and spatial gradient. Variance partitioning was used to assess the relative contribution of topographic heterogeneity and dispersal limitation to species turnover. Our results suggest that the effect of dispersal limitation is more important than topographic heterogeneity on species turnover in temperate mountane ecosystems in the study area. Dispersal limitation has a greater effect on trees species turnover than on shrubs, herbs or bryophytes species turnover.     

Factors Affecting Predator-Prey Distribution in a Protected Area,Tehran, Iran (a Case with Wolves and Wild Sheep)

We tried to model habitat suitability of two prey and predator species including wild sheep (Ovis orientalis) and wolf (Canis lupus) in Varjin protected area located in northern east of Tehran using a presence only method, maximum entropy (MaxEnt). Totally 11 environmental variables were measured in the species presence points which can be classified in three groups including topographical, vegetation and distal variables. Resulted maps indicated that habitat variables such as slope (ranging from 35 to 40 percent) and elevation (lower than 1700 meters above sea level) are both institute those factors which mostly affect studied prey and predator habitat use. Our results regarding prey and predator geographical range of used habitat indicated that wolves cover most area than wild sheep which show more dispersed habitat resources for the prey species. ENMTools test revealed that wolf’s niche breadth is more than twice as much as wild sheep’s. Wild sheep in Varjin protected area has a relatively narrow geographical extent and shows a tendency to marginal habitats while wolves cover obviously more areas which denotes its high mobility and low dependency to specific habitats.