Use of ambiguous detections to improve estimates from species distribution models

As large carnivores recover throughout Europe, their distribution needs to be studied to determine their conservation status and assess the potential for human-carnivore conflicts. However, efficient monitoring of many large carnivore species is challenging due to their rarity, elusive behavior, and large home ranges. Their monitoring can include opportunistic sightings from citizens in addition to designed surveys. Two types of detection errors may occur in such monitoring schemes: false negatives and false positives. False-negative detections can be accounted for in species distribution models (SDMs) that deal with imperfect detection. False-positive detections, due to species misidentification, have rarely been accounted for in SDMs. Generally, researchers use ad hoc data-filtering methods to discard ambiguous observations prior to analysis. These practices may discard valuable ecological information on the distribution of a species. We investigated the costs and benefits of including data types that may include false positives rather than discarding them for SDMs of large carnivores. We used a dynamic occupancy model that simultaneously accounts for false negatives and positives to jointly analyze data that included both unambiguous detections and ambiguous detections. We used simulations to compare the performances of our model with a model fitted on unambiguous data only. We tested the 2 models in 4 scenarios in which parameters that control false-positive detections and true detections varied. We applied our model to data from the monitoring of the Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) in the European Alps. The addition of ambiguous detections increased the precision of parameter estimates. For the Eurasian lynx, incorporating ambiguous detections produced more precise estimates of the ecological parameters and revealed additional occupied sites in areas where the species is likely expanding. Overall, we found that ambiguous data should be considered when studying the distribution of large carnivores through the use of dynamic occupancy models that account for misidentification.     

开发心血管和神经发育指标作为鱼类胚胎毒性实验中的亚致死终点

黑头软口鲦的胚胎毒性实验(fish embryo toxicity, FET)是一个更加人性化的替代方法，因为年轻生物被认为在毒物暴露中受到的危害更小。FET实验草案没有包括毒性终点以预测亚致死有害结局，这限制了它的应用。研究者针对FET实验提出了亚致死毒性终点的开发以增进该方法的应用范围。本研究针对黑头软口鲦开发了用于以往未测定过的亚致死指标的方法(例如自主收缩频率和心率)；考察了一些亚致死效应终点的响应情况，包括成长相关的(湿重、体长、生长相关基因表达)，神经发育方面的(自主收缩频率和神经发育基因表达)，心血管功能和发育(心包区面积、眼睛大小和心血管相关基因表达)，这是指标均作为FET实验的额外指标，模式毒物为3,4-二氯苯胺。其中，体长、眼睛尺寸和心包区面积相比于其他终点响应更为敏感。建立长时间有害影响与这些终点变化的关系对全面评价这些指标的毒性预测能力十分必要。 精选自Julie C. Krzykwa, Alexis Olivas, Marlo K. Sellin Jeffries. Development of cardiovascular and neurodevelopmental metrics as sublethal endpoints for the fish embryo toxicity test. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry,2018,37:2530-2541.
详情请见 https://doi.org/10.1002/etc.4212
     

Effect of automated versus manual emergency braking on rear seat adult and pediatric occupant precrash motion

Abstract

Objective: Emergency braking can potentially generate precrash occupant motion that may influence the effectiveness of restraints in the subsequent crash, particularly for rear-seated occupants who may be less aware of the impending crash. With the advent of automated emergency braking (AEB), the mechanism by which braking is achieved is changing, potentially altering precrash occupant motion. Further, due to anatomical and biomechanical differences across ages, kinematic differences between AEB and manual emergency braking (MEB) may vary between child and adult occupants. Therefore, the objective of this study was to quantify differences in rear-seated adult and pediatric kinematics and muscle activity during AEB and MEB scenarios.

Methods: Vehicle maneuvers were performed in a recent model year sedan traveling at 50?km/h. MEB (acceleration ～1?g) was achieved by the driver pressing the brake pedal with maximum effort. AEB (acceleration ～0.8?g) was triggered by the vehicle system. Inertial and Global Positioning System data were collected. Seventeen male participants aged 10–33 were restrained in the rear right passenger seat and experienced each maneuver twice. The subjects’ kinematics were recorded with an 8-camera 3D motion capture system. Electromyography (EMG) recorded muscle activity. Head and trunk displacements, raw and normalized by seated height, and peak head and trunk velocity were compared across age and between maneuvers. Mean EMG was calculated to interpret kinematic findings.

Results: Head and trunk displacement and peak velocity were greater in MEB than in AEB in both raw and normalized data (P?≤?.01). No effect of age was observed (P?≥?.21). Peak head and trunk velocities were greater in repetition 1 than in repetition 2 (P?≤?.006) in MEB but not in AEB. Sternocleidomastoid (SCM) mean EMG was greater in MEB compared to AEB, and muscle activity increased in repetition 2 in MEB.

Conclusions: Across all ages, head and trunk excursions were greater in MEB than AEB, despite increased muscle activity in MEB. This observation may suggest an ineffective attempt to brace the head or a startle reflex. The increased excursion in MEB compared to AEB may be attributed to differences in the acceleration pulses between the 2 scenarios. These results suggest that AEB systems can use specific deceleration profiles that have potential to reduce occupant motion across diverse age groups compared to sudden maximum emergency braking applied manually.     

Towards a multidisciplinary and integrated strategy in the assessment of adverse health effects related to air pollution: the case study of Cracow (Poland) and asthma

Complex interaction between anthropogenic activities, air quality and human health in urban areas, such as in Cracow sustains the need for the development of an interdisciplinary and integrated risk-assessment methodology. In such purpose, we propose a pilot study performed on asthmatics and based on a combined use of a biomarker, such as metallothionein 2A (MT-2A) in the characterization of human exposure to one or a mixture of pollutants and of Geographical Information Systems (G.I.S.) which integrates climatic and urban anthropogenic parameters in the assessment of spatio-temporal dispersion of air pollutants. Considering global incidence of air pollution on asthma and on peripheral blood lymphocytes MT-2A expression should provide a complementary information on biological risks linked to urban anthropogenic activities. Such study would help for the establishment of a sustainable development in urban areas that can maintain the integrity of air quality and preserve human health.     

A three-dimensional experimental investigation of the structure of the spanwise vortex generated by a shallow vortex dipole

The three-dimensional dynamics of shallow vortex dipoles is investigated by means of an innovative three-dimensional, three-component (3D-3C) scanning PIV technique. In particular, the three-dimensional structure of a frontal spanwise vortex is characterized. The technique allows the computation of the three-dimensional pressure field and the planar (x, y) distribution of the wall shear stress, which are not available using standard 2D PIV measurements. The influence of such a complex vortex structure on mass transport is discussed in the context of the available pressure and wall shear stress fields.     

Phenotypic Effects of Cattle Mitochondrial DNA in American Bison

Hybridization between endangered species and more common species is a significant problem in conservation biology because it may result in extinction or loss of adaptation. The historical reduction in abundance and geographic distribution of the American plains bison (Bison bison bison) and their recovery over the last 125 years is well documented. However, introgression from domestic cattle (Bos taurus) into the few remaining bison populations that existed in the late 1800s has now been identified in many modern bison herds. We examined the phenotypic effect of this ancestry by comparing weight and height of bison with cattle or bison mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) from Santa Catalina Island, California (U.S.A.), a nutritionally stressful environment for bison, and of a group of age‐matched feedlot bison males in Montana, a nutritionally rich environment. The environmental and nutritional differences between these 2 bison populations were very different and demonstrated the phenotypic effect of domestic cattle mtDNA in bison over a broad range of conditions. For example, the average weight of feedlot males that were 2 years of age was 2.54 times greater than that of males from Santa Catalina Island. In both environments, bison with cattle mtDNA had lower weight compared with bison with bison mtDNA, and on Santa Catalina Island, the height of bison with cattle mtDNA was lower than the height of bison with bison mtDNA. These data support the hypothesis that body size is smaller and height is lower in bison with domestic cattle mtDNA and that genomic integrity is important for the conservation of the American plains bison. Efectos Fenotípicos del ADN Mitocondrial de Ganado en el Bisonte Americano     

Invasive competitor and native seed predators contribute to rarity of the narrow endemic Astragalus sinuatus Piper

The conservation of rare plant species hinges on our ability to identify the underlying mechanisms that limit rare plant populations. Theory on rarity suggests that both predispersal seed predation and competition can be important mechanisms influencing abundance and/or distribution of rare plant populations. Yet few studies have tested these interactions, and those that have evaluated each mechanism independently. Astragalus sinuatus Piper (Whited's milkvetch) is a narrow endemic plant species restricted to eight populations within a 10-km2 area in eastern Washington. We used experimental and observational methods to test the effects of native insect predispersal seed predators and an invasive grass (Bromus tectorum L. [cheatgrass]) on seed set and population density of A. sinuatus. We quantified per capita seed production and pod predation rates across four sites and among four years. Seed predation rates were high across four sites (66-82%) and all years (65-82%). Experimental reduction of predispersal seed predators significantly increased per capita seed set of A. sinuatus (164-345%) at two experimental sites. Concurrently, two seed addition experiments demonstrated the effect of seed loss and presence of B. tectorum on seedling recruitment and establishment of A. sinuatus over four growing seasons. In the first seed addition experiment, we found no difference in recruitment and establishment between low (40) and high (120) seed addition levels. In the second addition experiment (one level of addition; 40 seeds), we found that recruitment and survivorship increased 200% in plots where B. tectorum was removed compared to plots where B. tectorum was present. Thus, seed addition had no impact in the presence of B. tectorum; conversely, in the absence of B. tectorum, seed addition was highly effective at increasing population numbers. Results suggest that, in areas where B. tectorum is present, recruitment is site limited, and it is seed limited when B. tectorum is absent. We recommend that managers reduce B. tectorum in an effort to increase population growth of A. sinuatus; in areas where B. tectorum is absent, short-term reduction of insect predators should be considered as a strategy to increase population growth of this rare species.     

Advancing effects analysis for integrated, large-scale wildfire risk assessment

In this article, we describe the design and development of a quantitative, geospatial risk assessment tool intended to facilitate monitoring trends in wildfire risk over time and to provide information useful in prioritizing fuels treatments and mitigation measures. The research effort is designed to develop, from a strategic view, a first approximation of how both fire likelihood and intensity influence risk to social, economic, and ecological values at regional and national scales. Three main components are required to generate wildfire risk outputs: (1) burn probability maps generated from wildfire simulations, (2) spatially identified highly valued resources (HVRs), and (3) response functions that describe the effects of fire (beneficial or detrimental) on the HVR. Analyzing fire effects has to date presented a major challenge to integrated risk assessments, due to a limited understanding of the type and magnitude of changes wrought by wildfire to ecological and other nonmarket values. This work advances wildfire effects analysis, recognizing knowledge uncertainty and appropriately managing it through the use of an expert systems approach. Specifically, this work entailed consultation with 10 fire and fuels program management officials from federal agencies with fire management responsibilities in order to define quantitative resource response relationships as a function of fire intensity. Here, we demonstrate a proof-of-concept application of the wildland fire risk assessment tool, using the state of Oregon as a case study.