基于控制单元划分的大辽河流域污染物空间分布及来源解析

为明确大辽河流域污染物特征及污染物来源,建立“流域—控制单元—行政区”空间拓扑关系,对2019年大辽河流域国控断面水质情况、各控制单元内污染物入河量及空间分布特征进行分析。结果表明：1）大辽河流域28个水质监测断面中,逐月水质均能达到《水污染防治行动计划》中考核目标的占29%,超标污染物以COD、NH₃-N为主,超标断面中,COD、NH₃-N主要来源为城镇生活源、农村生活源和分散式畜禽养殖,TP主要来源于不同土地利用类型污染源和城镇生活源;2）2019年COD、NH₃-N、TN、TP污染物入河量分别为59 195.5、3 115.5、18 229.7、538.3 t/a,从污染源贡献上看,总体呈现为城镇生活源>农村生活源>分散式畜禽养殖污染源>不同土地利用类型（含林地、草地、耕地、城镇用地）污染源>工业源>规模化畜禽养殖污染源;3）污染物入河量空间分布均呈现中部>西南部>东北部,其中控制单元C3、C6、C8、C11、C13、C15、C17是重点管控单元,以上重点管控单元中,COD、NH₃-N、TN、TP污染物入河量贡献率分别为68%、73%、77%、72%;4）污染物入河量估算结果与通量模拟值之间误差均小于20%,可用于研究区范围内污染负荷估算。

     

Incorporating Uncertainty into Management Models for Marine Mammals

Abstract: Good management models and good models for understanding biology differ in basic philosophy. Management models must facilitate management decisions despite large amounts of uncertainty about the managed populations. Such models must be based on parameters that can be estimated readily, must explicitly account for uncertainty, and should be simple to understand and implement. In contrast, biological models are designed to elucidate the workings of biology and should not be constrained by management concerns. We illustrate the need to incorporate uncertainty in management models by reviewing the inadequacy of using standard biological models to manage marine mammals in the United States. Past management was based on a simple model that, although it may have represented population dynamics adequately, failed as a management tool because the parameter that triggered management action was extremely difficult to estimate for the majority of populations. Uncertainty in parameter estimation resulted in few conservation actions. We describe a recently adopted management scheme that incorporates uncertainty and its resulting implementation. The approach used in this simple management scheme, which was tested by using simulation models, incorporates uncertainty and mandates monitoring abundance and human-caused mortality. Although the entire scheme may be suitable for application to some terrestrial and marine problems, two features are broadly applicable: the incorporation of uncertainty through simulations of management and the use of quantitative management criteria to translate verbal objectives into levels of acceptable risk.     

Cu在扇贝组织中的蓄积及其对酶活性的影响

采用暴露实验方法，研究了不同浓度的Cu（Cu^2＋）对栉孔扇贝（Chlamys farreri）鳃、肌肉、内脏团组织中Cu蓄积量及过氧化氢酶（CAT）活性的影响．结果表明：随水体中Cu浓度的升高，扇贝各组织中Cu蓄积量明显上升，Cu蓄积量顺序为：内脏〉鳃〉肌肉．Cu浓度对栉孔扇贝各组织中过氧化氢酶（CAT）活性均有明显影响，各组织中酶活性均随Cu浓度升高表现为抑制-诱导-抑制的规律．这表明，栉孔扇贝各组织中CAT酶对水体中Cu污染反映敏感，存在计量-效应关系，对海洋Cu早期污染具有指示作用．图2表1参19     

Empirical likelihood confidence intervals for adaptive cluster sampling

Adaptive cluster sampling (ACS) is an efficient sampling design for estimating parameters of rare and clustered populations. It is widely used in ecological research. The modified Hansen-Hurwitz (HH) and Horvitz-Thompson (HT) estimators based on small samples under ACS have often highly skewed distributions. In such situations, confidence intervals based on traditional normal approximation can lead to unsatisfactory results, with poor coverage properties. Christman and Pontius (Biometrics 56:503–510, 2000) showed that bootstrap percentile methods are appropriate for constructing confidence intervals from the HH estimator. But Perez and Pontius (J Stat Comput Simul 76:755–764, 2006) showed that bootstrap confidence intervals from the HT estimator are even worse than the normal approximation confidence intervals. In this article, we consider two pseudo empirical likelihood functions under the ACS design. One leads to the HH estimator and the other leads to a HT type estimator known as the Hájek estimator. Based on these two empirical likelihood functions, we derive confidence intervals for the population mean. Using a simulation study, we show that the confidence intervals obtained from the first EL function perform as good as the bootstrap confidence intervals from the HH estimator but the confidence intervals obtained from the second EL function perform much better than the bootstrap confidence intervals from the HT estimator, in terms of coverage rate.     

Life history costs of olfactory status signalling in mice

Large body size confers a competitive advantage in animal contests but does not always determine the outcome. Here we explore the trade-off between short-term achievement of high social status and longer-term life history costs in animals which vary in competitive ability. Using laboratory mice, Mus musculus, as a model system, we show that small competitors can initially maintain dominance over larger males by increasing investment in olfactory status signalling (scent-marking), but only at the cost of reduced growth rate and body size. As a result they become more vulnerable to dominance reversals later in life. Our results also provide the first empirical information about life history costs of olfactory status signals. Received: 15 December 1999 / Revised: 6 June 2000 / Accepted: 24 June 2000     

Sloughed mucus and drag-reduction in a school of Atlantic silversides,Menidia menidia

Atlantic silversides, Menidia menidia, were collected by seine-net from the Newport River estuary, North Carolina, USA and maintained in the laboratory. Direct measurement showed that the amount of mucus sloughed off individual silversides was 567 g h^-1 at a swimming speed of 50 cm s^-1. Individual M. menidia were also allowed to swim in a flowtank filled with 0, 1, and 10 ppm of the synthetic drag-reducer Polyox to determine if any changes in tailbeat frequency or amplitude could be correlated with the level of this sloughed material. Tailbeat measurements between seawater controls and either Polyox concentration did not differ significantly. Calculations based on this evidence indicate that the amount of solubilized mucus sloughed off a school of 10 000 M. menidia would be at least two orders of magnitude less than the highest concentration of Polyox tested. We conclude that solubilized mucus in the water column does not confer drag-reduction to schooling M. menidia.     

Evidence for division of labor in the social caterpillar Eucheira socialis (Lepidoptera: Pieridae)

The caterpillars of Eucheira socialis westwoodi cooperatively spin and maintain a hollow silken nest and an elaborate network of silken foraging trails on their host plant, madrone (Arbutus spp.: Ericaceae). Nests typically contain several hundred larvae. Two populations are known to harbor a sex ratio distorter. The primary sex ratio in these two populations for four generations has been exceedingly male biased (64–79% male). Lepidoptera larvae are easily sexed using external morphology, allowing us to uniquely mark male and female larvae and to assemble larval groups of particular sex ratios. We report here the results of experiments on sex-specific larval behavior and physiology and the effect of colony sex ratio on individual behavior. We found that male larvae spent more time spinning silk on the nest and less time feeding than female larvae. Males were the first to emerge from the nest and the first to venture out along trails to feed. Male-biased nests had a significantly greater amount of silk deposited on their surfaces than female-biased nests. In the field, male-biased nests produced heavier male and female pupae than female-biased nests. Male and female larvae in 75% male nests became active earlier than males and females in other sex ratio treatments. Received: 11 September 1998 / Received in revised form: 24 February 1999 / Accepted: 27 March 1999     

Uncertainty, learning, and the optimal management of wildlife

Wildlife management is limited by uncontrolled and often unrecognized environmental variation, by limited capabilities to observe and control animal populations, and by a lack of understanding about the biological processes driving population dynamics. In this paper I describe a comprehensive framework for management that includes multiple models and likelihood values to account for structural uncertainty, along with stochastic factors to account for environmental variation, random sampling, and partial controllability. Adaptive optimization is developed in terms of the optimal control of incompletely understood populations, with the expected value of perfect information measuring the potential for improving control through learning. The framework for optimal adaptive control is generalized by including partial observability and non-adaptive, sample-based updating of model likelihoods. Passive adaptive management is derived as a special case of constrained adaptive optimization, representing a potentially efficient suboptimal alternative that nonetheless accounts for structural uncertainty.     

Persistent organochlorine compounds in soils and sediments of European high altitude mountain lakes

The composition of persistent organochlorine compounds (OC) in soils and sediments from two high altitude European mountain lakes, Redon in the Pyrenees and Ladove in the Tatra mountains, has been studied. Sediment cores from two additional lakes in the Tatra mountains, Starolesnianske Pleso and Dlugi Staw, have also been examined. DDTs (1.7-13 ng g(-1)) were the most abundant OC in soils followed by total polychlorobiphenyls (PCBs; 0.41-1.5 ng g(-1)) and hexachlorobenzene (HCB; 0.15-0.91 ng g(-1)). In sediments, the dominant OC were also DDTs (3.3-28 ng g(-1)) and PCBs (2.3-15 ng g(-1)). These concentrations are low, involving absence of major pollution sources in these high mountain regions. The downcore OC profiles in soils and sediments were similar but higher concentrations and steeper vertical gradients were observed in the latter. Radiometric determinations showed absence of significant OC transport from catchment to lake. The sediment-soil difference points therefore to a better retention of the OC load in sediments than soils which may be related to the low temperatures that are currently encountered at the bottom of the lake water column and the depletion of sediment bioturbation in these cold environments. Significant qualitative changes in the soil PCB distributions are observed downcore. These involve a dominance of the high molecular weight congeners in the top core sections and those of lower weight (i.e. less chlorinated) in the bottom. Anaerobic dechlorination of higher molecular weight congeners occurring in microsites, e.g. as observed in flooded or poorly drained soils, could be responsible for these changes. This process could be concurrent to bioturbation.     

The solid-phase controls on the mobility of heavy metals at the Copper Cliff tailings area, Sudbury, Ontario, Canada

The Copper Cliff Tailings Disposal Area, located near Sudbury, Ontario, covers an area of approximately 2200 ha and constitutes more than 10% of the total area of all mine tailings in Canada. The area has been utilized since 1936, receiving sulphide-containing tailings from the Inco Sudbury operations. Field measurements of pore-gas oxygen and carbon dioxide in the vadose zone indicate that sulphide oxidation has progressed to depths of 1.6 m to 1.7 m within the tailings. The oxidation of sulphide minerals within the vadose zone, and the accompanying dissolution of carbonate and aluminosilicate minerals within these tailings releases SO₄, Fe(II) and other metals to the pore water. In the vadose and saturated zones, concentrations of Fe and Ni exceed 10100 mg/l and 2210 mg/l, respectively. These high concentrations of dissolved metals are attenuated by a series of precipitation, coprecipitation and adsorption reactions. The precipitation of secondary sulphate and hydroxide phases also create hardpan layers at or near the oxidation front. Geochemical modelling of the pore-water chemistry suggests that pH-buffering reactions are occurring within the shallow oxidized zones, and that secondary-phase precipitation is occurring at or near the underlying hardpan and transition zones. Mineralogical study of the tailings confirmed the presence of jarosite, gypsum and goethite within the shallow tailings, suggesting that these phases are controlling the dissolved concentrations of Fe, SO₄ and Ca. Extraction experiments conducted on the tailings solids indicate that the constituents contained in the water-soluble fraction of the shallow, weathered tailings are derived from the original pore water and the dissolution of highly soluble phases such as gypsum. The acid-leachable fraction of the weathered tailings accounts for up to 25% of the heavy metals, and the reducible fraction may contain up to 100% of the heavy metals within the shallow, weathered tailings. Based on the pore water profiles and the geochemistry of the tailings solids, a relative mobility scale of Fe=Mn=Ni=Co>Cd Zn>Cr=Pb>Cu can be determined.