Implications of different population model structures for management of threatened plants

Population viability analysis (PVA) is a reliable tool for ranking management options for a range of species despite parameter uncertainty. No one has yet investigated whether this holds true for model uncertainty for species with complex life histories and for responses to multiple threats. We tested whether a range of model structures yielded similar rankings of management and threat scenarios for 2 plant species with complex postfire responses. We examined 2 contrasting species from different plant functional types: an obligate seeding shrub and a facultative resprouting shrub. We exposed each to altered fire regimes and an additional, species‐specific threat. Long‐term demographic data sets were used to construct an individual‐based model (IBM), a complex stage‐based model, and a simple matrix model that subsumes all life stages into 2 or 3 stages. Agreement across models was good under some scenarios and poor under others. Results from the simple and complex matrix models were more similar to each other than to the IBM. Results were robust across models when dominant threats are considered but were less so for smaller effects. Robustness also broke down as the scenarios deviated from baseline conditions, likely the result of a number of factors related to the complexity of the species’ life history and how it was represented in a model. Although PVA can be an invaluable tool for integrating data and understanding species’ responses to threats and management strategies, this is best achieved in the context of decision support for adaptive management alongside multiple lines of evidence and expert critique of model construction and output.     

Assessing the potential for greenhouse gas mitigation in intensively managed annual cropping systems at the regional scale

We predicted changes in yields and direct net soil greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes from converting conventional to alternative management practices across one of the world's most productive agricultural regions, the Central Valley of California, using the DAYCENT model. Alternative practices included conservation tillage, winter cover cropping, manure application, a 25% reduction in N fertilizer input and combinations of these. Alternative practices were evaluated for all unique combinations of crop rotation, climate, and soil types for the period 1997-2006. The crops included were alfalfa, corn, cotton, melon, safflower, sunflower, tomato, and wheat. Our predictions indicate that, adopting alternative management practices would decrease yields up to 5%. Changes in modeled SOC and net soil GHG fluxes corresponded to values reported in the literature. Average potential reductions of net soil GHG fluxes with alternative practices ranged from −0.7 to −3.3 Mg CO₂-eq ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ in the Sacramento Valley and −0.5 to −2.5 Mg CO₂-eq ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ for the San Joaquin Valley. While adopting a single alternative practice led to modest net soil GHG flux reductions (on average −1 Mg CO₂-eq ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹), combining two or more of these practices led to greater decreases in net soil GHG fluxes of up to −3 Mg CO₂-eq ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹. At the regional scale, the combination of winter cover cropping with manure application was particularly efficient in reducing GHG emissions. However, GHG mitigation potentials were mostly non-permanent because 60-80% of the decreases in net soil GHG fluxes were attributed to increases in SOC, except for the reduced fertilizer input practice, where reductions were mainly attributed to decreased N₂O emissions. In conclusion, there are long-term GHG mitigation potentials within agriculture, but spatial and temporal aggregation will be necessary to reduce uncertainties around GHG emission reductions and the delivery risk of the associated C credits.     

用Autospec-Ultima NT气相色谱-高分辨质谱分析二噁英及相关的持久性有机污染物

"二噁英"是指一类化学结构和生物特征均有某些相似之处的化合物.这些有毒化合物有几百种,可分为相关的三大类:氯代二苯并-对-二噁英(CDDs),氯代二苯并呋喃(CDFs)和某些多氯代联苯(PCBs).CDDs和CDFs并非与生具有,而是由于人类活动不注意而生成的.天然过程也会产生CDDs和CDFs.     

Estimates of residual dairy manure nitrogen availability using various techniques

It is common practice to repeatedly apply dairy manure to the same fields. To accurately assess the total plant availability of manure nutrients, it is necessary to account for the nutrients remaining in soil from previous manure applications. A field experiment studying manure nitrogen (N) uptake by corn (Zea mays L.) was conducted from 1998 to 2003 on a Plano silt loam (fine-silty, mixed, mesic, Typic Argiudolls). Plots received two rates of semisolid manure either every year, every 2 yr, or every 3 yr to estimate first-, second-, and third-year dairy manure N residuals. Residual manure N availability was estimated from single and multiple manure applications using (i) the fertilizer N equivalence method, (ii) the apparent recovery (difference) method, (iii) relative effectiveness method, and (iv) recovery of (15)N-labeled manure. Second-year availabilities after a single manure application using the fertilizer equivalence, difference, and relative effectiveness methods were estimated to be 12, 8, and 4% of total manure N applications, respectively. Estimates of third-year availability by these methods were 3, 1, and 5%, respectively. Measurement of (15)N recovered from labeled manure was 6 and 2% in the second and third year, respectively. Fertilizer equivalence, difference, and relative effectiveness methods showed great year to year variability, reducing the confidence in the residual manure N availability estimates by these methods, but using (15)N-labeled manures reduced variability substantially. Based on this and other studies, we suggest that second- and third-year residual N availability from a single application of semisolid dairy manure would be 9 to 12%, and 3 to 5% of the original manure N application, respectively.     

Laboratory investigation of three distinct emissions monitors for hydrochloric acid

The measurement of hydrochloric acid (HCl) on a continuous basis in coal-fired plants is expected to become more important if HCl standards become implemented as part of the Federal Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS) standards that are under consideration. For this study, the operational performance of three methods/instruments, including tunable diode laser absorption spectroscopy (TDLAS), cavity ring down spectroscopy (CRDS), and Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy, were evaluated over a range of real-world operating environments. Evaluations were done over an HCl concentration range of 0–25 ppmv and temperatures of 25, 100, and 185 °C. The average differences with respect to temperature were 3.0% for the TDL for values over 2.0 ppmv and 6.9% of all concentrations, 3.3% for the CRDS, and 4.5% for the FTIR. Interference tests for H₂O, SO₂, and CO, CO₂, and NO for a range of concentrations typical of flue gases from coal-fired power plants did not show any strong interferences. The possible exception was an interference from H₂O with the FTIR. The instrument average precision over the entire range was 4.4% for the TDL with better precision seen for concentrations levels of 2.0 ppmv and above, 2.5% for the CRDS, and 3.5% for the FTIR. The minimum detection limits were all on the order of 0.25 ppmv, or less, utilizing the TDL values with a 5-m path. Zero drift was found to be 1.48% for the TDL, 0.88% for the CRDS, and 1.28% for the FTIR.

Implications: This study provides an evaluation of the operational performance of three methods/instruments, including TDL absorption spectroscopy (TDLAS), cavity ring down spectroscopy (CRDS), and FTIR spectroscopy, for the measurement of hydrochloric acid (HCl) over a range of real-world operating environments. The results showed good instrument accuracy as a function of temperature and no strong interferences for flue gases typical to coal-fired power plants. The results show that these instruments would be viable for the measurement of HCl in coal-fired plants if HCl standards become implemented as part of the Federal Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS) standards that are under consideration.     

Traps in and of our minds: relationships between human logic,dialectical traps and social-ecological traps

Social-ecological traps are theorized to be present when human actions affect feedbacks and drivers in social-ecological systems, which, in turn, lead to regime shifts that may alter ecosystem capacity to generate services on which human wellbeing depends, and this, in turn, triggers societal responses, where actors and institutions interact with ecological dynamics and unwittingly lock development into a vulnerable pathway. The key dynamic in this theorization seems to be that human action often predicates or initiates the series of cascading affects that determine the presence of, and, perhaps, the effectiveness of, social-ecological traps. However, what drives human action in this context? What logic, assumptions, decisions, world views, and other processes are implicated in this configuration? This paper first briefly reviews ecological identity and the problems of anthropocentricism, human exceptionalism, and human exemptionalism and introduces the term ecological disenfranchisement. Building upon this, the author invokes Horn’s logic and dialectical traps as a lens for understanding human roles and the prevalence of issues with ecological identities, within social ecological traps. Drilling further down, the paper illustrates these traps with short vignettes, in each case, attempting to link the human logical traps with larger system dynamics. Finally, the author proposes a chain of reasoning to serve as an example of how the presence of human logic traps (or entrapment) in a number of different spheres has an impact upon the larger system, and, perhaps, even predicts entrapment of the larger system. Future efforts to either understand social-ecological traps or navigate away or out of them must first take stock of the human logical traps that actors within the systems are influenced by, and that influence the large system(s).This paper argues that failing to account for human traps within will render most efforts to avoid or escape social-ecological traps futile.     

Sustainable development conflict over freeway construction

Environmental disputes arise due to opposing views of various groups about their environmental concerns and their economic or developmental interests. Development and protection of the environment constitute two main contradictory objectives within the sustainable development paradigm, which are often in conflict. The decision support system, GMCR II, which implements the graph model for conflict resolution, is employed to model and analyze an environmental dispute arising over the construction of a new freeway between the Iranian capital, Tehran, and the city of Chalous located in the north of the country. This study demonstrates that the graph model for conflict resolution can be used as a methodology to promote a reasonable balance between economic development and environmental protection from a strategic viewpoint. In addition to systematically modelling the conflict by putting the existing information into proper perspective, it is shown how conflict analysis can be used for comparing alternative scenarios and predicting possible future outcomes. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

Association of plutonium with sediments from the Ob and Yenisey Rivers and Estuaries

The present study applied sequential extraction techniques to investigate the binding and mobility of plutonium (Pu) in sediments from the rivers and estuaries of the Ob and Yenisey. As a study site, the Ob and Yenisey are particularly interesting as both rivers have weapons-grade Pu sources in their catchment areas, including the Russian Pu production and reprocessing plants at Mayak, Tomsk-7 and Krashnoyarsk, and the Semipalantinsk nuclear weapons testing site in Kazakhstan. Plutonium activity and ²⁴⁰Pu/²³⁹Pu ratios were determined using accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS). Sequential extractions showed that between 47 and 80% of the Pu in Yenisey River sediments and 35–53% of the Pu in soils around the Techa River are mobilized with weak oxidising agents, which can indicate that Pu is bound to organic material. In contrast, Pu in Ob and Yenisey Estuarine sediments was more strongly bound, with 60–100% being found in the HNO₃-extractable fraction. This change in speciation could reflect either that Pu bound to organic material in the Techa and Yenisey River sediments becomes more fixed to the sediments with time, or that organic-bound Pu is mobilized and released to the water when the sediments encounter the more saline water of the Ob and Yenisey estuaries. In general, ²⁴⁰Pu/²³⁹Pu ratios were relatively consistent between different extraction fractions, although, in whole sediments, an increase in ratio was observed with distance from the source. This reflects the increased influence of weapon fallout from catchment runoff within the river systems, as compared to the weapons-grade sources close to the production and reprocessing plants. Knowledge of Pu speciation in the Ob and Yenisey Rivers, and the processes controlling its behaviour in estuarine systems, can improve predictions of its transfer and subsequent environmental impact to Arctic Seas.