A Simulation Study to Assess the Sensitivity of a Forest Health Monitoring Network to Outbreaks of Defoliating Insects

The sensitivity of the United States Forest Health Monitoring network to outbreaks of defoliating insects was examined by means of a simulation study. A model constructed specifically for the study was used to generate a wide variety of defoliation patterns in forested landscapes. Forest configuration was that of Minnesota, USA, as expressed by the GAP land cover classification. Combinations of model parameters were based on a Latin Hypercube sample. The relationship between the average number of plots defoliated and outbreak characteristics was then examined via multiple regression. Both theoretical and model results pointed to a strong, linear relationship between the average number of plots defoliated and outbreak size. Model results provided additional insight, suggesting a significant relationship between the average number of plots defoliated and other outbreak characteristics after outbreak size was taken into account.     

Little Egrets (Egretta Garzetta) and Trace-Metal Contamination in Wetlands of China

The rapidly developing Asian countries may face threatening environmental contamination, that however remains largely unassessed. We studied persistent trace elements in three wetlands, Poyang Lake, relatively unpolluted, and Tai Lake, and Pearl River Delta, selected as hotspots of pollution in Central China. We adopted as indicator the Little Egret, a widespread colonial waterbird, and during 1999 and 2000 we collected and analysed the same samples as for a parallel study we conducted in Pakistan, e.g. eggs, body feathers of chicks, prey spontaneously regurgitated by the chicks, and sediments at the areas most used by foraging egrets. The levels of trace-metals at our three study areas were similar, or within the range, of those found in the few other studies for East Asia, with few exceptions. The concentrations of the various elements were below the threshold that may affect the survival or reproduction of the birds, and even the highest concentrations relative to background, i.e. Se in eggs, and Hg in feathers at Pearl Delta, do not pose toxic hazards. In sediments, the levels of trace elements were lower than the critical levels assumed for contaminated soil, except for alarming high levels of As at Poyang. These results do not confirm our expectation, that Poyang was relatively uncontaminated, while Tai and Pearl were polluted. Although trace metal concentration differed significantly among the three study areas, these differences were minor and were not consistent among elements and samples. The bioaccumulation ratios from sediments through prey, feather and egg, were consistent with our previous findings for Pakistan. Only Hg exhibited high bioaccumulation, while Se and Zn had low accumulation, and the other elements no accumulation. This reasserts that feathers of predators such as egrets, may be more sensitive indicators of environmental contamination for the elements subject to bioaccumulation, whereas the sediments or the organisms low in the food chain are better indicators for the other elements.     

Modelling Phosphorus Retention in Lakes and Reservoirs

Steady-state models for the prediction of P retention coefficient (R) in lakes were evaluated using data from 93 natural lakes and 119 reservoirs situated in the temperate zone. Most of the already existing models predicted R relatively successfully in lakes while it was seriously under-estimated in reservoirs. A statistical analysis indicated the main causes of differences in R between lakes and reservoirs: (a) distinct relationships between P sedimentation coefficient, depth, and water residence time; (b) existence of significant inflow–outflow P concentration gradients in reservoirs. Two new models of different complexity were developed for estimating R in reservoirs: , where τ is water residence time (year), was derived from the Vollenweider/Larsen and Mercier model by adding a calibrated parameter accounting for spatial P non-homogeneity in the water body, and is applicable for reservoirs but not lakes, and , where [P_in] is volume-weighted P concentration in all inputs to the water body (μg l⁻¹), was obtained by re-calibrating the OECD general equation, and is generally applicable for both lakes and reservoirs. These optimised models yield unbiased estimates over a large range of reservoir types.     

Mineralogical characterization of the Tournemire argillite after in situ interaction with concretes

This study aims to investigate, through mineralogical characterization (SEM, XRD) and mass-balance calculations, the effects of contact time, concrete types and presence of free water on the Tournemire argillite under in situ conditions. Three sampling zones from Excavation Disturbed Zone (EDZ) areas have been chosen: (1) dry contacts, collected at the tunnel masonry/argillite interface (contact time - 125 years), (2) wet contacts, taken close to drained areas below the tunnel roadbed in contact with the canal draining the Cernon fault water (contact time - 15 and 7 years) and at the tunnel masonry/argillite interface over 70 m from the Cernon fault (contact time - 125 years). This study shows that: in the absence of water, no significant modification of argillite is observed after 125 years, except for pyrite dissolution and gypsum precipitation; in the presence of water, precipitation of gypsum, recrystallization of mixed-layer clays, neoformation of zeolites and K-feldspars overgrowths are observed. At the concrete/argillite interface near the Cernon fault, important dolomite neoformation and leaching of chlorite and kaolinite occur. These processes are enhanced with contact time, low flow rate and the nature of the concrete (compound cement Portland CEM II 32.5). Evidence for oxidation processes linked to the EDZ (pyrite oxidation, Fe-oxy-hydroxide and gypsum precipitation) is observed.     

Fish mercury increase in Lago Manso, a new hydroelectric reservoir in tropical Brazil

It has been frequently demonstrated that mercury (Hg) concentrations in fish rise in newly constructed hydroelectric reservoirs in the Northern Hemisphere. In the present work, we studied whether similar effects take place also in a tropical upland reservoir during impoundment and discuss possible causes and implications. Total Hg concentrations in fish and several soil and water parameters were determined before and after flooding at Rio Manso hydroelectric power plant in western Brazil. The Hg concentrations in soil and sediment were within the background levels in the region (22-35 ng g(-1) dry weight). There was a strong positive correlation between Hg and carbon and sulphur in sediment. Predatory fish had total Hg concentrations ranging between 70 and 210 ng g(-1) f.w. 7 years before flooding and between 72 and 755 ng g(-1) f.w. during flooding, but increased to between 216 and 938 ng g(-1) f.w. in the piscivorous and carnivorous species Pseudoplatystoma fasciatum, cachara, and Salminus brasiliensis, dourado, 3 years after flooding. At the same time, concentrations of organic carbon in the water increased and oxygen concentrations decreased, indicating increased decomposition and anoxia as contributing to the increased Hg concentrations in fish. The present fish Hg concentrations in commonly consumed piscivorous species are a threat to the health of the population dependent on fishing in the dam and downstream river for sustenance. Mercury exposure can be reduced by following fish consumption recommendations until fish Hg concentrations decrease to a safe level.     

Implications of changing national policies on land use in the Chittagong Hill Tracts of Bangladesh

Land use in the Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT) of Bangladesh had undergone changes over the past several centuries. The landscape, which was mostly covered with forest with interspersed shifting cultivation plots until the beginning of the colonial period, has gradually changed into a landscape with a blend of land uses. Overall, the forest area has gradually declined, while the area under shifting cultivation and sedentary agriculture has expanded. The process of the change was multi-directional. National forestry, land use, land taxation, population migration policies, and development activities, such as construction of a hydroelectric dam and roads, played an important role in this process. Shifting cultivation had inflicted little damage on the forest until the beginning of the colonial period. The pace of deforestation accelerated with the nationalization of forests which abolished tribal people's customary use and management rights to the forest, and allowed large-scale commercial logging both legally and illegally. The pace was further intensified by the policy encouraging population migration to CHT and construction of a reservoir on the Karnafuli River. Efforts were made to replace shifting cultivation with more productive types of sedentary agriculture. However, much change could not take place in the absence of secure land rights, supportive trade policies, and the required support services and facilities, including infrastructure. Locationally suitable land use evolved in areas where transportation facilities were available and farmers were granted land title with the necessary extension services and credit facilities. These findings have important policy implications for the promotion of environmentally and economically sound land use in CHT.     

Using Relative Risk to Compare the Effects of Aquatic Stressors at a Regional Scale

The regional-scale importance of an aquatic stressor depends both on its regional extent (i.e., how widespread it is) and on the severity of its effects in ecosystems where it is found. Sample surveys, such as those developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP), are designed to estimate and compare the extents, throughout a large region, of elevated conditions for various aquatic stressors. In this article, we propose relative risk as a complementary measure of the severity of each stressor’s effect on a response variable that characterizes aquatic ecological condition. Specifically, relative risk measures the strength of association between stressor and response variables that can be classified as either “good” (i.e., reference) or “poor” (i.e., different from reference). We present formulae for estimating relative risk and its confidence interval, adapted for the unequal sample inclusion probabilities employed in EMAP surveys. For a recent EMAP survey of streams in five Mid-Atlantic states, we estimated the relative extents of eight stressors as well as their relative risks to aquatic macroinvertebrate assemblages, with assemblage condition measured by an index of biotic integrity (IBI). For example, a measure of excess sedimentation had a relative risk of 1.60 for macroinvertebrate IBI, with the meaning that poor IBI conditions were 1.6 times more likely to be found in streams having poor conditions of sedimentation than in streams having good sedimentation conditions. We show how stressor extent and relative risk estimates, viewed together, offer a compact and comprehensive assessment of the relative importances of multiple stressors.     

Determination of Frequency for Remeasuring Ground and Vegetation Cover Factor Needed for Soil Erosion Modeling

Determining a remeasurement frequency of variables over time is required in monitoring environmental systems. This article demonstrates methods based on regression modeling and spatio-temporal variability to determine the time interval to remeasure the ground and vegetation cover factor on permanent plots for monitoring a soil erosion system. The spatio-temporal variability methods include use of historical data to predict semivariograms, modeling average temporal variability, and temporal interpolation by two-step kriging. The results show that for the cover factor, the relative errors of the prediction increase with an increased length of time interval between remeasurements when using the regression and semivariogram models. Given precision or accuracy requirements, appropriate time intervals can be determined. However, the remeasurement frequency also varies depending on the prediction interval time. As an alternative method, the range parameter of a semivariogram model can be used to quantify average temporal variability that approximates the maximum time interval between remeasurements. This method is simpler than regression and semivariogram modeling, but it requires a long-term dataset based on permanent plots. In addition, the temporal interpolation by two-step kriging is also used to determine the time interval. This method is applicable when remeasurements in time are not sufficient. If spatial and temporal remeasurements are sufficient, it can be expanded and applied to design spatial and temporal sampling simultaneously.