FLOOD HAZARD STUDIES IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BASIN USING REMOTE SENSING1

ABSTRACT. The Spring 1973 Mississippi River flood was investigated using remotely sensed data from ERTS-1. Both manual and automatic analyses of the data indicate that ERTS-I is extremely useful as a regional tool for flood management. Quantitative estimates of area flooded were made in St. Charles County, Missouri and Arkansas. Flood hazard mapping was conducted in three study areas along the Mississippi River using pre-flood ERTS-1 imagery enlarged to 1:250,000 and 1:100,000 scale. The flood prone areas delineated on these maps correspond to areas that would be inundated by significant flooding (approximately the 100 year flood). The flood prone area boundaries were generally in agreement with flood hazard maps produced by the U. S. Army Corps of Engineers and U. S. Geological Survey although the latter are somewhat more detailed because of their larger scale. Initial results indicate that ERTS-1 digital mapping of flood prone areas can be performed at 1:62,500 which is comparable to some conventional flood hazard map scales.     

Future markets: An alternative for stabilizing secondary materials markets?

The authors present an economic justification for extramarket intervention in the markets for secondary materials and briefly discuss the possible impacts of futures trading on the cash market for a commodity. These impacts are applied to the markets for secondary materials and the potential effects are assessed. They conclude with a rationale for public participation in initiating a scrap futures market.     

Using Decision Analysis to Choose Phosphorus Targets for Lake Erie

Lake Erie water quality has improved dramatically since the degraded conditions of the 1960s. Additional gains could be made, but at the expense of further investment and reductions in fishery productivity. In facing such cross-jurisdictional issues, natural resource managers in Canada and the United States must grapple with conflicting objectives and important uncertainties, while considering the priorities of the public that live in the basin. The techniques and tools of decision analysis have been used successfully to deal with such decision problems in a range of environmental settings, but infrequently in the Great Lakes. The objective of this paper is to illustrate how such techniques might be brought to bear on an important, real decision currently facing Lake Erie resource managers and stakeholders: the choice of new phosphorus loading targets for the lake. The heart of our approach is a systematic elicitation of stakeholder preferences and an investigation of the degree to which different phosphorus-loading policies might satisfy ecosystem objectives. Results show that there are potential benefits to changing the historical policy of reducing phosphorus loads in Lake Erie.     

Tropospheric sources of NOx: lightning and biology.

Laboratory experiments to quantify the global production of NOx (NO + NO2) in the troposphere due to atmospheric lightning and biogenic activity in soil are presented. These laboratory experiments, as well as other studies, suggest that the global production of NOx by lightning probably ranges between 2 and 20 MT(N)y-1 of NO and is strongly dependent on the total energy deposited by lightning, a quantity not well-known. In our laboratory experiments, nitrifying micro-organisms is soil were found to be a significant source of both NO and nitrous oxide (N2O). The measured production ratio of NO to N2O averaged 2-3 for oxygen partial pressures of 0.5-10%. Extrapolating these laboratory measurements to the global scale, which is somewhat risky, suggests that nitrifying micro-organisms in soil may account for as much as 10 MT(N) y-1 of NO. Additional experiments with denitrifying micro-organisms gave an NO to N2O production ratio ranging from 2 to 4 for an oxygen partial pressure of 0.5% and a ratio of less than unity for oxygen partial pressures ranging from 1 to 20%. The production of NO and N2O, normalized with respect to micro-organism number indicates that the production of both NO and N2O by denitrifying micro-organisms is at least an order of magnitude less than production by nitrifying micro-organisms for the micro-organisms studied.     

Effects of symbiont elimination and reinfection on the life processes of the planktonic foraminifer Globigerinoides sacculifer

Laboratory experiments were carried out to determine the influence of symbiotic dinoflagellates (zooxanthellae) on the shell growth, longevity, and reproductive potential of Globigerinoides sacculifer (Brady). Its symbionts were eliminated by 72-h treatment with a photosynthetic inhibitor (DCMU). Symbiont elimination resulted in earlier gametogenesis (shortened survival time) and smaller shell sizes of G. sacculifer when compared to untreated foraminifera grown in sea water. Individuals kept in continuous darkness in untreated sea water also exhibited early gametogenesis, short survival times and small shell sizes. Aposymbiotic foraminifera formed on the average one or two chambers fewer per individual and their rate of shell size increase is slower than symbiont-bearing foraminifera. Symbionts were lysed within perialgal vacuoles of G. sacculifer when subjected to DCMU treatment or kept in continuous darkness. One DCMU-treated group was reinfected with symbionts from crushed G. sacculifer donors. Soon after reinfection, these foraminifera resumed a shell growth rate and exhibited developmental stages that were nearly equivalent to those of untreated individuals, as deduced from their shell size, frequency of sac-like chambers, rate of gametogenesis, and survival time. Our experiments indicate that the symbionts aid in calcification and that elimination of symbionts triggers gametogenesis, thus shortening the life span of the foraminiferal host. The results imply that shell growth in symbiont-bearing planktonic foraminifera occurs mainly in the euphotic zone and that they do not survive for long periods below it.     

Regulatory effects of dioxin-like and non-dioxin-like PCBs and other AhR ligands on the antioxidant enzymes paraoxonase 1/2/3

Paraoxonase 1 (PON1), an antioxidant enzyme, is believed to play a critical role in many diseases, including cancer. PCBs are widespread environmental contaminants known to induce oxidative stress and cancer and to produce changes in gene expression of various pro-oxidant and antioxidant enzymes. Thus, it appeared of interest to explore whether PCBs may modulate the activity and/or gene expression of PON1 as well. In this study, we compared the effects of dioxin-like and non-dioxin-like PCBs and of various aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AhR) ligands on PON1 regulation and activity in male and female Sprague-Dawley rats. Our results demonstrate that (i) the non-dioxin-like PCB154, PCB155, and PCB184 significantly reduced liver and serum PON1 activities, but only in male rats; (ii) the non-dioxin-like PCB153, the most abundant PCB in many matrices, did not affect PON1 messenger RNA (mRNA) level in the liver but significantly decreased serum PON1 activity in male rats; (iii) PCB126, an AhR ligand and dioxin-like PCB, increased both PON1 activities and gene expression; and (iv) even though three tested AhR ligands induced CYP1A in several tissues to a similar extent, they displayed differential effects on the three PONs and AhR, i.e., PCB126 was an efficacious inducer of PON1, PON2, PON3, and AhR in the liver, while 3-methylcholantrene induced liver AhR and lung PON3, and 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD), the most potent AhR agonist, increased only PON3 in the lung, at the doses and exposure times used in these studies. These results show that PCBs may have an effect on the antioxidant protection by paraoxonases in exposed populations and that regulation of gene expression through AhR is highly diverse.     

Development and validation of a method for analysis of "dioxin-like" PCBs in environmental samples from the steel industry

A method, previously used for determination of 2,3,7,8-substituted polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs) and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs), has been modified for quantitative analysis of "dioxin-like" polychlorobiphenyls (PCBs) in environmental samples from the steel industry. The existing sample clean-up procedure, involving liquid chromatography on multi-layered silica and Florisil columns, has been extended to include a third chromatography stage on a basic alumina stationary phase. The additional clean-up stage is required for PCB analysis in order to eliminate interferences from relatively large concentrations of saturated cyclic and aliphatic hydrocarbons. Samples were analysed for WHO-12 congeners using high resolution gas chromatography/high resolution mass spectrometry (HRGC/HRMS) and standard solutions of the method US EPA 1668A. Replicate analysis of method blanks revealed background contamination for PCBs 118, 105 and 77, which are generally abundant in ambient air. These contaminants were taken into account using a subtraction method. The entire procedure was validated by replicate analysis (N = 3) of a certified reference sediment. The RSD for each WHO-12 congener was below 15%, 13C12-labelled PCB internal standard recoveries were in the range 70-95%. A waste dust sample collected in the electrostatic precipitator of a UK sinter plant was analysed for determination of PCDD/Fs and WHO-12 PCBs and exhibited a PCDD/F I-TEQ of 148.5 +/- 21.2 ngkg(-1) and a WHO-TEQ of 7.2 +/- 1.5 ngkg(-1). WHO-12 congeners contributed only 4.6% to the overall TEQ and PCB 126 was the major congener contributing to the WHO-TEQ (96%). The contribution to the overall TEQ of the waste dust sample was mainly attributed to PCDF followed by PCDD, which accounted for 86.6% and 8.7% to the overall TEQ, respectively.     

Statistical inference on patch-specific survival and movement rates from marked animals

Empirical estimates of patch-specific survival and movement rates are needed to parametrize spatially explicit population models, and for inference on the effects of habitat quality and fragmentation on populations. Data from radio-marked animals, in which both the fates and habitat locations of animals are known over time, can be used in conjunction with continuous-time proportional hazards models to obtain inferences on survival rates. Discrete-time conditional logistic models may provide inference on both survival and movement rates. We use Monte Carlo simulation to investigate accuracy of estimates of survival from both approaches, and movement rates from conditional logistic regression, for two habitats. Bias was low (relative bias < 0.04) and interval coverage accurate (close to the nominal 0.95) for estimates of habitat effect on survival based on proportional hazards. Bias was high ( relative bias 0.60) and interval coverage poor ( = 0.26 vs. nominal 0.95) for estimates of habitat effect based on conditional logistic regression; bias was especially influenced by heterogeneity in survival and the shape of the hazard function, whereas both bias and coverage were affected by ‘memory’ effects in movement patterns. Bias estimates of movement rate was low ( relative bias < 0.05), but interval coverage was poor ( = 0.48–0.80), possibly as a result of poor performance of a Taylor series estimate of variance. An example is provided from a radio-telemetry study of 47 wintering American woodcock (Scolopax minor), illustrating practical difficulties in field studies to parametrize these models. We also discuss extensions of continuous-time models to explicitly include a movement process, and further examine tradeoffs between continuous and discrete models.     

Impact of selective herbicide right-of-way vegetation treatment on birds

Power line rights-of-way provide a major portion of the shrub habitat in New York. Since this habitat type is on the decline, many of the birds dependent on shrub habitat are also declining. The methods used to control right-of-way vegetation could therefore have serious impacts on several birds of conservation concern. Since New York is increasingly using selective herbicide treatments in vegetation management, we sought to investigate the potential impacts of these treatments on nesting birds. The study looked at plots in two adjacent rights-of-way before and after a selective herbicide treatment in one of the rights-of-way. We investigated three bird species: alder flycatcher (Empidonax alnorum), chestnut-sided warbler (Dendroica pensylvanica), and gray catbird (Dumetella carolinensis). All three species exhibited a preference for shrub vegetation around nest sites. The selective herbicide treatment did not significantly decrease that shrub vegetation, and neither the density nor the nesting success of the three species declined following the treatment. We conclude that selective herbicide vegetation management encourages the development of shrub habitat without negatively impacting the birds nesting in the habitat.