Institutional traps and vulnerability to changes in climate and flood regimes in Thailand

Vulnerabilities to floods in Thailand are changing as a result of many factors. Formal and informal institutions help shape exposure, sensitivity and capacities to respond of individuals, social groups and social-ecological systems. In this paper we draw on several case studies of flood events and flood-affected communities to first assess how current practices reflect various laws, procedures, programs and policies for managing floods and disasters and then explore the implications for dealing with additional challenges posed by climate change. Our analysis identifies several institutional traps which need to be overcome if vulnerability is to be reduced, namely capture of agendas by technical elites, single-level or centralized concentration of capacities, organizational fragmentation and overemphasis on reactive crisis management. Possible responses are to expand public participation in managing risks, build adaptive capacities at multiple levels and link them, integrate flood disaster management and climate change adaptation into development planning, prioritize risk reduction for socially vulnerable groups and strengthen links between knowledge and practice. Responses like these could help reduce vulnerabilities under current climate and flood regimes, while also improving capacities to handle the future which every way that unfolds.     

Reproduction, larval growth, and reproductive development in African clawed frogs (Xenopus laevis) exposed to atrazine

Reproductive success and development of F2 offspring from F1 adult African clawed frogs (Xenopus laevis) exposed to atrazine throughout larval development and as sexually mature adults was examined. Larval X. laevis were exposed to one of four nominal concentrations of atrazine (0, 1, 10, 25 microg atrazine/l) beginning 96 hr after fertilization and continuing through two years post-metamorphosis. Clutch size and survival of offspring were used as measurement endpoints to gauge reproductive success of the F1 frogs. Larval survivorship and time to metamorphosis were used to gauge developmental success of the F2 offspring from atrazine-exposed frogs. Testes in F1 and F2 frogs were examined for incidence of anomalies, such as testicular ovarian follicles, and sex ratios in F2 offspring were investigated to determine if exposure to atrazine caused trans-generational effects (effects on F2 individuals due to exposure of F1 individuals). There were no effects of any of the studied concentrations of atrazine on clutch size of F1 frogs. There were also no effects on hatching success or time to metamorphosis. Sex ratios did not differ between F2 offspring among treatments. There was no evidence to suggest a transgenerational effect of atrazine on spawning success or reproductive development of X. laevis. This is consistent with the presence of robust populations of X. laevis in areas where they are exposed to atrazine that has been used for several decades for weed control in production of corn. Our observations also are consistent with the results of most other studies of frogs where no effects were found to be associated with exposure to atrazine. Our data do not support the hypothesis that atrazine significantly affects reproductive fitness and development of frogs.     

Mortality of the scleractinian coral <Emphasis Type="Italic">Cladocora caespitosa</Emphasis> during a warming event in the Levantine Sea (Cyprus)

A mortality event of Cladocora caespitosa corals and the extent of bleaching, necrosis and pigmented areas in the colonies were studied at the southeastern coast of Cyprus during a prolonged period of higher than average sea temperature anomalies (summer/autumn 2012). With the use of scuba diving and image analysis software, we monitored the extent of mortality of 29 colonies of C. caespitosa by measuring and comparing the area percentage of healthy tissue, affected tissue (bleached, necrotic) and older mortality events (encrusted skeleton). In September 2012, on average, 24 % of the colonies surface area was affected (bleaching and/or necrosis). In October 2012, C. caespitosa showed on average 26.3 % of the colony surface area affected, evidence of continuing deterioration. At the same time, 10 % (3 of 29) of the colonies showed an increase in the pigmentation of previously bleached polyps in small and marginal areas (6–8 %). Irrespective of the amount, the regaining of pigments recorded is considered an important find. Corals and marine organisms in general in the Levantine Sea are affected greatly by warming events, to the extent where a very small percentage of polyps/colonies show resilience under thermal stress. Natural bleaching of C. caespitosa, even though limited to a few colonies and very small portions of tissue/polyps, was documented for the first time in the Levantine Sea. We conclude that temperature anomalies are associated with the mortality event. Whether prolonged higher temperature is the direct cause, or whether it acts synergistically with other factors should be the subject of further investigations.     

Variation patterns in individual fish responses to chemical stress among estuaries, seasons and genders: the case of the European flounder (Platichthys flesus) in the Bay of Biscay

The objective was to describe and model variation patterns in individual fish responses to contaminants among estuaries, season and gender. Two hundred twenty-seven adult European flounders were collected in two seasons (winter and summer) in four estuaries along the Bay of Biscay (South West France), focusing on a pristine system (the Ster), vs. three estuaries displaying contrasted levels of contaminants (the Vilaine, Loire and Gironde). Twenty-three variables were measured by fish, considering the load of contaminants (liver metals, liver and muscle persistent organic pollutants, muscle polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons); the gene expression (Cyt C oxydase, ATPase, BHMT, Cyt P450 1A1, ferritin); the blood genotoxicity (Comet test); and liver histology (foci of cellular alteration–tumour, steatosis, inflammation, abnormal glycogen storage). Canonical redundancy analysis (RDA) was used to model these variables using gender, season and estuary of origin as explanatory variables. The results underlined the homogeneity of fish responses within the pristine site (Ster) and more important seasonal variability within the three contaminated systems. The complete model RDA was significant and explained 35 % of total variance. Estuary and season respectively explained 30 and 5 % of the total independent variation components, whilst gender was not a significant factor. The first axis of the RDA explains nearly 27 % of the total variance and mostly represents a gradient of contamination. The links between the load of contaminants, the expression of several genes and the biomarkers were analysed considering different levels of chemical stress and a possible multi-stress, particularly in the Vilaine estuary.     

Heavy metals and couple fecundity, the LIFE Study

The effect of heavy metals at environmentally relevant concentrations on couple fecundity has received limited study despite ubiquitous exposure. In 2005-2009, couples (n = 501) desiring pregnancy and discontinuing contraception were recruited and asked to complete interviews and to provide blood specimens for the quantification of cadmium (μg L⁻¹), lead (μg dL⁻¹) and mercury (μg L⁻¹) using inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry. Couples completed daily journals on lifestyle and intercourse along with menstruation and pregnancy testing for women. Couples were followed for 12 months or until pregnant. Fecundability odds ratios (FORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated adjusting for age, body mass index, cotinine, and serum lipids in relation to female then male exposures. FORs <1 denote a longer time to pregnancy. In adjusted models, reduced FORs were observed for both female cadmium (0.78; 95% CI 0.63-0.97) and male lead (0.85; 95% CI 0.73-0.98) concentrations. When jointly modeling couples’ exposures, only male lead concentration significantly reduced the FOR (0.82; 95% CI 0.68, 0.97), though the FOR remained <1 for female cadmium (0.80; 95% CI 0.64, 1.00). This prospective couple based cohort with longitudinal capture of time to pregnancy is suggestive of cadmium and lead’s reproductive toxicity at environmentally relevant concentrations.     

Risk and opportunity in upgrading the US drinking water infrastructure system

This paper presents a practical risk assessment methodology to provide drinking water infrastructure (DWI) decision-makers with an objective risk assessment tool. The purpose of this risk assessment tool is to maintain the desired level-of-service or systems reliability [r(f)], while managing the financial uncertainty of the expected budgetary impact within the capital improvement program (CIP). The goal of this paper is to demonstrate the value of an objective risk assessment tool for estimating the DWI decision-maker's sensitivity to the risk of systems failure (R). The objectives are to: (1) incorporate probability of systems failure [p(f)] into the CIP budgetary analysis process and (2) evaluate the affects of p(f) on the expected CIP budgetary outcome. The magnitude of the expected budgetary impact is managed through the DWI decision-maker's sensitivity to R, which is represented by the level of the rate of reinvestment (RR). The expected result of the proposed risk assessment tool demonstrates that by proactively managing R to maintain a desired r(f) will effectively manage the impact of uncertainty on the expected budgetary outcome within the CIP. The expected contribution of the practical risk assessment methodology is to provide DWI decision-makers with the ability to reduce budgetary uncertainty when allocating limited financial resources among competing operational, repair, maintenance, and expansion activities within the CIP. The conclusions of the paper reveal that if DWI decision-makers assume risk-avoidance positions through proactive asset management (AM) strategies, they will achieve positive affects on expected budgetary outcomes.     

The internal brain drain: foreign aid,hiring practices,and international migration

Building on empirical material gathered in Haiti, this paper advances a new and innovative understanding of the internal brain drain phenomenon—the poaching of local skilled workers by international organisations (IOs) or international non-governmental organisations (INGOs)— by conceptualising it as an equilibrium. This equilibrium is composed of two sets of tensions: (i) those between the salary conditions in the public sector and those on offer to local personnel working for IOs and INGOs; and (ii) those inherent in the dual salary scale used by IOs and INGOs for local and international staff. These two sets of tensions contribute in their specific ways to international migration, and, as such, the internal brain drain has a bearing on external brain drain dynamics. In addition, the paper addresses the difficult policy choices facing development and humanitarian organisations, since every set of policies that impacts on one side of the equilibrium is bound to affect its other side.     

A decision model for selecting sustainable drinking water supply and greywater reuse systems for developing communities with a case study in Cimahi, Indonesia

Capacity Factor Analysis is a decision support system for selection of appropriate technologies for municipal sanitation services in developing communities. Developing communities are those that lack the capability to provide adequate access to one or more essential services, such as water and sanitation, to their residents. This research developed two elements of Capacity Factor Analysis: a capacity factor based classification for technologies using requirements analysis, and a matching policy for choosing technology options. First, requirements analysis is used to develop a ranking for drinking water supply and greywater reuse technologies. Second, using the Capacity Factor Analysis approach, a matching policy is developed to guide decision makers in selecting the appropriate drinking water supply or greywater reuse technology option for their community. Finally, a scenario-based informal hypothesis test is developed to assist in qualitative model validation through case study. Capacity Factor Analysis is then applied in Cimahi Indonesia as a form of validation. The completed Capacity Factor Analysis model will allow developing communities to select drinking water supply and greywater reuse systems that are safe, affordable, able to be built and managed by the community using local resources, and are amenable to expansion as the community's management capacity increases.     

Local knowledge and adaptation to climate change in natural resource-based societies of the Asia-Pacific

This paper reviewed 42 studies of how local knowledge contributes to adaptation to climate and climate change in the Asia-Pacific Region. Most studies focused on traditional ecological or indigenous knowledge. Three simple questions were addressed: (1) How are changes in climate recognized? (2) What is known about how to adapt to changes in climate? (3) How do people learn about how to adapt? Awareness of change is an important element of local knowledge. Changes in climate are recognized at multiple time scales from observations that warn of imminent extreme weather through expectations for the next season to identification of multi-year historical trends. Observations are made of climate, its impact on physical resources, and bio-indicators. Local knowledge about how to adapt can be divided into four major classes: land and water management, physical infrastructure, livelihood strategies, and social institutions. Adaptation actions vary with time scale of interest from dealing with risks of disaster from extreme weather events, through slow onset changes such as seasonal droughts, to dealing with long-term multi-year shifts in climate. Local knowledge systems differ in the capacities and ways in which they support learning. Many are dynamic and draw on information from other places, whereas others are more conservative and tightly institutionalized. Past experience of events and ways of learning may be insufficient for dealing with a novel climate. Once the strengths and limitations of local knowledge (like those of science) are grasped the opportunities for meaningful hybridization of scientific and local knowledge for adaptation expand.