Learning about climate-related risks: decisions of Northern Thailand fish farmers in a role-playing simulation game

River-based cage aquaculture in Northern Thailand involves dealing with a number of climate- and weather-related risks. The purpose of this study was to improve understanding of how farmers make investment decisions in their fish farms when faced with risks from floods that are imperfectly known, and which may be changing. A role-playing simulation game was created to capture some of the key features of the decision-making context and explored with farmers in the field. In-depth interviews were conducted post-game to reflect on strategies used in the game as compared to in practice. As hypothesized, more frequent or larger impact floods reduced cumulative profits. Farmers reduced their stocking densities when playing in games with high likelihood of floods, but did not do so in games with large impacts when a flood occurred. Contrary to initial expectations, farmers were less likely to learn from experience—choose the optimal density and thus improve score within a game—when floods were common or had large impacts. Farmers learnt most when risks were decreasing and least when they were increasing. Providing information about likelihoods prior to a game had no impact on performance or decisions. The methods and findings of this study underline the importance of understanding decision-making behaviour around risks for climate risk management. The novel combination of experimental, role-playing, and qualitative methods revealed limitations in common assumptions about the ease of learning about risks from previous experiences. The findings also suggest that decision-support systems for aquaculture need to take into account how recent experiences, understanding of information, and other factors influence risk perceptions and decisions.     

A decision model for selecting sustainable drinking water supply and greywater reuse systems for developing communities with a case study in Cimahi, Indonesia

Capacity Factor Analysis is a decision support system for selection of appropriate technologies for municipal sanitation services in developing communities. Developing communities are those that lack the capability to provide adequate access to one or more essential services, such as water and sanitation, to their residents. This research developed two elements of Capacity Factor Analysis: a capacity factor based classification for technologies using requirements analysis, and a matching policy for choosing technology options. First, requirements analysis is used to develop a ranking for drinking water supply and greywater reuse technologies. Second, using the Capacity Factor Analysis approach, a matching policy is developed to guide decision makers in selecting the appropriate drinking water supply or greywater reuse technology option for their community. Finally, a scenario-based informal hypothesis test is developed to assist in qualitative model validation through case study. Capacity Factor Analysis is then applied in Cimahi Indonesia as a form of validation. The completed Capacity Factor Analysis model will allow developing communities to select drinking water supply and greywater reuse systems that are safe, affordable, able to be built and managed by the community using local resources, and are amenable to expansion as the community's management capacity increases.     

Potassium, phosphorus, or nitrogen limit root allocation, tree growth, or litter production in a lowland tropical forest

We maintained a factorial nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and potassium (K) addition experiment for 11 years in a humid lowland forest growing on a relatively fertile soil in Panama to evaluate potential nutrient limitation of tree growth rates, fine-litter production, and fine-root biomass. We replicated the eight factorial treatments four times using 32 plots of 40 x 40 m each. The addition of K was associated with significant decreases in stand-level fine-root biomass and, in a companion study of seedlings, decreases in allocation to roots and increases in height growth rates. The addition of K and N together was associated with significant increases in growth rates of saplings and poles (1-10 cm in diameter at breast height) and a further marginally significant decrease in stand-level fine-root biomass. The addition of P was associated with a marginally significant (P = 0.058) increase in fine-litter production that was consistent across all litter fractions. Our experiment provides evidence that N, P, and K all limit forest plants growing on a relatively fertile soil in the lowland tropics, with the strongest evidence for limitation by K among seedlings, saplings, and poles.     

Local knowledge and adaptation to climate change in natural resource-based societies of the Asia-Pacific

This paper reviewed 42 studies of how local knowledge contributes to adaptation to climate and climate change in the Asia-Pacific Region. Most studies focused on traditional ecological or indigenous knowledge. Three simple questions were addressed: (1) How are changes in climate recognized? (2) What is known about how to adapt to changes in climate? (3) How do people learn about how to adapt? Awareness of change is an important element of local knowledge. Changes in climate are recognized at multiple time scales from observations that warn of imminent extreme weather through expectations for the next season to identification of multi-year historical trends. Observations are made of climate, its impact on physical resources, and bio-indicators. Local knowledge about how to adapt can be divided into four major classes: land and water management, physical infrastructure, livelihood strategies, and social institutions. Adaptation actions vary with time scale of interest from dealing with risks of disaster from extreme weather events, through slow onset changes such as seasonal droughts, to dealing with long-term multi-year shifts in climate. Local knowledge systems differ in the capacities and ways in which they support learning. Many are dynamic and draw on information from other places, whereas others are more conservative and tightly institutionalized. Past experience of events and ways of learning may be insufficient for dealing with a novel climate. Once the strengths and limitations of local knowledge (like those of science) are grasped the opportunities for meaningful hybridization of scientific and local knowledge for adaptation expand.     

In‐Situ Plasma Remediation of Contaminated Soils

Plasma‐torch technology has excellent potential for cost‐effective treatment of contaminated soils and other types of buried waste material. This article describes the evolution and basic features of this technology, with emphasis on the non‐transferred plasma arc torch. In addition, selected results from both laboratory experiments and field demonstrations will show how this technology can successfully destroy hazardous/toxic materials and/or stabilize contaminants in situ so they are no longer a threat to human health and the environment. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Effect of Bag Failure on Baghouse Outlet Loading

One of the most important considerations in baghouse operation is the effect of bag failure on outlet loading. This information would be Of use to equipment manufacturers, users, and regulatory officials. Unfortunately, little information is available in the literature on this aspect of baghouse performance. Equations describing changes in outlet loading resulting from the sudden rupture of one or more bags are developed from first principles. Calculated results from these equations are presented in the form of a chart which can very quickly and simply be used to obtain a numerical value for a revised outlet loading resulting from bag failure(s) for a variety of system conditions. Due to an assumption made in the derivation, the new outlet loading thus obtained represents the maximum increase (worst case conditions) to be expected from the rupture of one or more bags. The following variables are included in the analysis: inlet loading, outlet loading (prior to bag failure), number of bag failures, bag diameter, system pressure drop; and gas temperature.     

Ambient Carbon Monoxide And Its Fate in the Atmosphere

Carbon monoxide, the most abundant air pollutant found in the atmosphere generally exceeds that of all other pollutants combined (excluding C0₂). An estimated tonnage of >87 X 10⁶ of CO was emitted in the United States from major technological sources alone during 1966. More than 90% of the total CO emitted from fossil fuels is derived from gasoline powered motor vehicles. Other sources of CO include emissions from coal and fuel oil burning, aircraft and open burning. Some CO is also formed by certain vegetation and marine invertebrates (siphonophores). Chemical reactions of CO in the upper and lower atmosphere are discussed. Chemical oxidation of CO in the lower atmosphere by molecular oxygen is very slow. The exact duration of CO in the lower atmosphere is not known with certainty; however, the mean residence time has been variously estimated to be between 0.3 and 5.0 years. In the absence of scavenging processes the estimated world-wide CO emission would be sufficient to raise the’atmospheric level by 0.03 ppm per year, yet the background levels of CO in clean air do not appear to be increasing. Several potential sinks are discussed. Knowledge of the mechanism of process of removal of CO from the lower atmosphere is unsatisfactory; the process, at the present time, cannot be identified with certainty.     

A review of the state of research,policies and strategies in addressing leakage from reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+)

Leakage from policies to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) must be monitored, measured and mitigated to ensure their effectiveness. This paper reviews research on leakage at the large (international and national) and small (subnational and project) scales to summarize what we already know, and highlight areas where research is urgently needed. Most (11 of 15) studies published until 2005 estimated leakage of fossil-fuel-based emissions from large-scale interventions such as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Kyoto Protocol. Many studies on leakage from landuse-based emissions more relevant for REDD+ emerged afterwards (11 of 15), mostly focusing on smaller-scale interventions (8 of the 11 studies). There is a deficiency in qualitative studies showing how leakage develops from an intervention, and the factors influencing this process. In–depth empirical research is needed to understand activities and actors causing emissions (Emissions), the way those activities move spatially in response to policies (Displacement), the way policies affect carbon (C) emitting activities (Attribution) and the amount of resulting emissions produced (Quantification). The cart is thence before the horse: the knowledge necessary to form practical and accurate working definitions, typologies and characterizations of leakage is still absent. Despite this, there is a rush to measure, monitor and mitigate leakage. The concept of leakage has not matured enough, leading to vague definitions of leakage, its components, and scale. We suggest ways to improve the concept of leakage and argue for more empirical research and at various scales to add to our collective knowledge of Emissions, Displacement, Attribution and Quantification.