A new method for analysing socio-ecological patterns of vulnerability

This paper presents a method for the analysis of socio-ecological patterns of vulnerability of people being at risk of losing their livelihoods as a consequence of global environmental change. This method fills a gap in methodologies for vulnerability analysis by providing generalizations of the factors that shape vulnerability in specific socio-ecological systems and showing their spatial occurrence. The proposed method consists of four steps that include both quantitative and qualitative analyses. To start, the socio-ecological system exposed to global environmental changes that will be studied needs to be determined. This could, for example, be farmers in drylands, urban populations in coastal areas and forest-dependent people in the tropics. Next, the core dimensions that shape vulnerability in the socio-ecological system of interest need to be defined. Subsequently, a set of spatially explicit indicators that reflect these core dimensions is selected. Cluster analysis is used for grouping the indicator data. The clusters found, referred to as vulnerability profiles, describe different typical groupings of conditions and processes that create vulnerability in the socio-ecological system under study, and their spatial distribution is provided. Interpretation and verification of these profiles is the last step in the analysis. We illustrate the application of this method by analysing the patterns of vulnerability of (smallholder) farmers in drylands. We identify eight distinct vulnerability profiles in drylands that together provide a global overview of different processes taking place and sub-national detail of their distribution. By overlaying the spatial distribution of these profiles with specific outcome indicators such as conflict occurrence or migration, the method can also be used to understand these phenomena better. Analysis of vulnerability profiles will in a next step be used as a basis for identifying responses to reduce vulnerability, for example, to facilitate the transfer of best practices to reduce vulnerability between different places.     

Biophysical suitability,economic pressure and land-cover change: a global probabilistic approach and insights for REDD+

There has been a concerted effort by the international scientific community to understand the multiple causes and patterns of land-cover change to support sustainable land management. Here, we examined biophysical suitability, and a novel integrated index of “Economic Pressure on Land” (EPL) to explain land cover in the year 2000, and estimated the likelihood of future land-cover change through 2050, including protected area effectiveness. Biophysical suitability and EPL explained almost half of the global pattern of land cover (R ² = 0.45), increasing to almost two-thirds in areas where a long-term equilibrium is likely to have been reached (e.g. R ² = 0.64 in Europe). We identify a high likelihood of future land-cover change in vast areas with relatively lower current and past deforestation (e.g. the Congo Basin). Further, we simulated emissions arising from a “business as usual” and two reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) scenarios by incorporating data on biomass carbon. As our model incorporates all biome types, it highlights a crucial aspect of the ongoing REDD + debate: if restricted to forests, “cross-biome leakage” would severely reduce REDD + effectiveness for climate change mitigation. If forests were protected from deforestation yet without measures to tackle the drivers of land-cover change, REDD + would only reduce 30 % of total emissions from land-cover change. Fifty-five percent of emissions reductions from forests would be compensated by increased emissions in other biomes. These results suggest that, although REDD + remains a very promising mitigation tool, implementation of complementary measures to reduce land demand is necessary to prevent this leakage.     

Divide or broadcast: Interrelation of asexual and sexual reproduction in a population of the fissiparous hermaphroditic seastar Nepanthia belcheri (Asteroidea: Asterinidae)

Asexual and sexual reproduction were studied in an intertidal population of Nepanthia belcheri (Perrier) at Townsville, Queensland, Australia, by regular sampling over a year (March 1976-March 1977) and by histological analysis of gonads. Fission reached a peak in early winter (April–June), when about 45% of the population showed evidence of recent fission. Propensity for fission was unrelated to longest arm length. Seven-armed seastars predominated in the population and these underwent fission in two stages to produce one 3-armed fragment and two 2-armed fragments. Fission planes were not related to numbers or positions of madreporites. Hermaphroditism was a normal sexual condition in the population. Almost all gonads contained oocytes, but some gonads functioned as ovaries (without spermatogenic tissue) while others functioned as testes. Seastars with mature ovaries were significantly larger than those with mature testes, indicating protandry, as in other hermaphroditic asteroids. However, fission complicates the pattern of gonad development by causing regression or retardation of gonads and by apparently having a masculinizing effect, so that ovaries may change to testes in fission products. There was a period of sexual reproduction in early summer (October–November). This followed the period of intense fission and regeneration, and a population change from predominately functional females to males. Consequently there was an extreme imbalance against mature females at sexual reproduction, further reducing potential fecundity. Thus, sexual reproduction was very subordinate to fission as the means of recruitment. The 450 m diam eggs probably give rise to pelagic lecithotrophic development and, if this is the case, N. belcheri retains the advantage of complementing reliable recruitment from fission with a dispersive phase. The combination of fission and hermaphroditism is particularly advantageous for a very sparse dispersal of larvae, as a functionally dioecious population may develop from one larva settling in a new locality.     

Water Quality Functions of Riparian Forest Buffers in Chesapeake Bay Watersheds

/ Maryland, Virginia, and Pennsylvania, USA, have agreed to reduce nutrient loadings to Chesapeake Bay by 40% by the year 2000. This requires control of nonpoint sources of nutrients, much of which comes from agriculture. Riparian forest buffer systems (RFBS) provide effective control of nonpoint source (NPS) pollution in some types of agricultural watersheds. Control of NPS pollution is dependent on the type of pollutant and the hydrologic connection between pollution sources, the RFBS, and the stream. Water quality improvements are most likely in areas of where most of the excess precipitation moves across, in, or near the root zone of the RFBS. In areas such as the Inner Coastal Plain and Piedmont watersheds with thin soils, RFBS should retain 50%-90% of the total loading of nitrate in shallow groundwater, sediment in surface runoff, and total N in both surface runoff and groundwater. Retention of phosphorus is generally much less. In regions with deeper soils and/or greater regional groundwater recharge (such as parts of the Piedmont and the Valley and Ridge), RFBS water quality improvements are probably much less. The expected levels of pollutant control by RFBS are identified for each of nine physiographic provinces of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed. Issues related to of establishment, sustainability, and management are also discussed.KEY WORDS: Riparian forest buffers; Chesapeake Bay; Nonpoint source pollution; Nitrogen; Phosphorus; Sediment     

The FAIR model: A tool to analyse environmental and costs implications of regimes of future commitments

This article describes the policy decision-support tool, FAIR, to assess the environmental and abatement costs implications of international regimes for differentiation of future commitments. The model links long-term climate targets and global reduction objectives with regional emission allowances and abatement costs, accounting for the Kyoto Mechanisms used. FAIR consists of three sub-models: a simple climate model, an emission-allocation model and a cost model. The article also analyses ten different rule-based emission allocation schemes for two long-term concentration stabilisation targets for greenhouse gases. This analysis shows that evaluating regimes requires not only an assessment of the initial allocation, but also of the distribution of abatement costs and the impacts from emissions trading. The Multi-Stage approach (with a gradual increase of Parties adopting emission intensity or reductions targets) and the Triptych approach (with sectoral targets for all Parties) seem to provide the best prospects for most of the Parties when compared to the other allocation schemes analysed.     

Nutrient limitation in the giant clam-zooxanthellae symbiosis: effects of nutrient supplements on growth of the symbiotic partners

The effect of ammonium (5, 10 M N) and phosphate (2, 5, 10 M P) on the growth of the giant clam Tridacna gigas and its symbiotic dinoflagellate Symbiodinium sp. was examined. A 3 mo exposure to these nutritients significantly increased the N or P composition of the soft tissues, as reflected in a corresponding change in C:N:P ratio. Furthermore, exposure to N or N+P markedly increased the amount of soft tissue, but P alone did not, demonstrating that increased availability of inorganic nitrogen enhances tissue growth of the clam host. With addition of N, or N+P, there was a significant increase in the total number of zooxanthellae per clam, with a corresponding decrease in chlorophyll a (chl a) content per zooxanthella. However, only with N+P was there an increase in the zooxanthellae mitotic index. The inverse relationship between zooxanthellae number and chl a per zooxanthella is consistent with phytoplankton studies indicating conditions of nutrient-limitation. Furthermore, the unaffected C:N:P composition of the zooxanthellae and their relatively low specific-growth rates (4 to 10%) also suggest that they are nutrient-limited in vivo. In particular, their high mean C:N:P ratio of 303:52:1 indicates that, relative to C, they are much more depleted in P and less in N than are free-living phytoplankton. Furthermore, polyphosphates (phosphate reserves) were undetectable, and the activity levels of acid phosphatase in the zooxanthellae were relatively high and not influenced by the host's exposure to increased P concentrations in the sea water, implicating the clam host in active regulation of P availability to its symbiotic algae. This is strong evidence that N-limitation of clam zooxanthellae is a function of the availability of ammonium to the symbiosis while, irrespective of nutrient levels in sea water, clam zooxanthellae still show characteristics of P-limitation.     

Domestic versus foreign energy use: an analysis for four European countries

Environment, Development and Sustainability - In order to adequately assess energy policies and set clear objectives, a key preliminary step is to know the energy use patterns of the different...     

Clonal extent,apical dominance and networking features in the phalanx angiosperm <Emphasis Type="Italic">Zostera noltii</Emphasis> Hornem.

Disaggregating seagrass meadows and studying its components separately (clones, ramets, shoots) can provide us insights on meadow dynamics and growth patterns. The clonal growth, dependent upon clonal rules may regulate and impose constraints to plant architecture and, therefore, determine how individual clones evolve into the environment. In order to investigate the relationship between clonal growth rules and clone architecture, the belowground network architecture of single-clones of the seagrass Zostera noltii was studied. Networks were traced in situ after washing out the overlying sediment, and network characteristics were measured using digital analysis: area covered by clone, total rhizome length, type of rhizomatic axes (main, secondary, tertiary, quaternary), number and length of the internodes, branching angles and branching frequencies. This approach revealed that Z. noltii is able to develop into large clones integrating up to 300 internodes, 676 cm of rhizome, 208 shoots and 4,300 cm² of plant area. Internodal length depended on both, the distance to the apical shoot (time effect) and the axes type (apical dominance effect). However, average branching angle was independent of axis type (average 58.3 ± 0.75), but varied significantly depending on the distance from the apical shoot. This average branching angle allows Z. noltii maximize the rate of centrifugal expansion, maintaining a high density in colonized areas to produce close stands but also minimizing the investment in belowground biomass and ramets overlapping. The clonal architecture of Z. noltii seems to be regulated by the interaction of both, apical dominance strength and clonal integration distance. Moreover, clonal growth rules and growth pattern seem to constrain clonality through (clonal) plant architecture regulations (i.e. branching is restricted in secondary axes, similar average branching angles regardless the axes, the higher the distance to the apex the higher the number of internodes in secondary axes, shorter internodes in secondary and tertiary axes). Future research efforts should focus on how these complex relationships between apical dominance and clonal integration interact to elucidate the temporal (seasonal) and spatial scales of both processes and the outcome at the plant architectural level.