A Bayesian network approach to modelling land-use decisions under environmental policy incentives in the Brazilian Amazon

ABSTRACT

Deforestation driven by agricultural expansion is a major threat to the biodiversity of the Amazon Basin. Modelling how deforestation responds to environmental policy implementation has thus become a policy relevant scientific undertaking. However, empirical parameterization of land-use/cover change (LUCC) models is challenging due to the high complexity and uncertainty of land-use decisions. Bayesian Network (BN) modelling provides an effective framework to integrate various data sources including expert knowledge. In this study, we integrate remote sensing products with data from farm-household surveys and a decision game to model LUCC at the BR-163, in Brazil. Our ‘business as usual’ scenario indicates cumulative forest cover loss in the study region of 8,000 km² between 2014 and 2030, whereas ‘intensified law-enforcement’ would reduce cumulative deforestation to 1,600 km² over the same time interval. Our findings underline the importance of conservation law enforcement in modulating the impact of agricultural market incentives on land cover change.     

The relationship between whole effluent toxicity (WET) and chemical-based effluent quality assessment in Vojvodina (Serbia)

The relationship between whole effluent toxicity (WET) and chemical-based effluent quality assessment across a range of effluent types was examined for the first time in Serbia. WET was determined by Daphnia magna acute tests, while chemical-based toxicity was taken as theoretical for concentrations of priority chemicals and effluent quality assessment based on the valid Serbian regulations. A poor correlation was found between WET and chemical-based effluent quality assessment: positive toxicity tests were found, in general, in cases where samples satisfied the requirements of mandatory effluent monitoring. Statistically insignificant correlation between the predicted and observed toxicity indicated that the presence of priority substances accounted to the overall toxicity only to a certain degree, most probably due to a rather short list of priority pollutants regularly analysed in effluents. Current monitoring requirements neglect hazards that derive from potentially present toxicants and unpredictable toxicity of complex mixtures, which led to poor correlation between the WET and chemical-based results in this study.     

Preliminary air pollution monitoring in San Miguel, Buenos Aires

Passive diffusion samplers were employed in San Miguel(Buenos Aires Metropolitan Area) for a preliminary airpollution monitoring. The highest loads were observedin downtown, compared with an urban background site.Total suspended particulate matter (TSPM) varied from0.257 to 0.033 mg cm^-2 month^-1; dust was examinedfor particle nature and size distribution. A similartrend was observed for nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) andTSPM spatial distribution, suggesting that traffic isthe major pollution source. Sulphur dioxide (SO₂)values were low and rather homogeneous. Levels for theinvestigated pollutants are below EPA's guide linevalues. Geographic (flat area, near to Rio de LaPlata) and climatologic factors (rainfalls andvariable wind directions) contribute to disperse pollutants.     

Genotoxicity screening of the river Rasina in Serbia using the Allium anaphase–telophase test

Evaluation of the presence of genotoxic substances is especially important in rivers that serve as a source of drinking water. Nine water samples collected along the river Rasina in Serbia were analyzed for potential toxic and genotoxic effects using the Allium anaphase-telophase test. Inhibition of root growth relative to the negative control (synthetic water) was observed in all samples. Analysis of the genotoxic potential, through scoring anaphase and telophase aberrations, showed that in seven of the nine samples the level of aberrations was significantly increased relative to the negative control but was lower than that obtained for the positive control (methyl methanesulfonate). Changes in the relation between spindle and chromosome types of aberrations were found in some samples, indicating differences in the potential genotoxic substances present at the analyzed sites. The data, which were obtained from samples collected at the highest level of river water, warn that during periods of low flow the values could reach genotoxic activity. The Allium anaphase-telophase test can be recommended as an monitoring system, that can serve as the first alert for the presence of genotoxic environmental pollutants.     

Measurements of Ozone Concentrations in Zagreb

Ozone concentrations were measured in Zagreb at four sites from May 1999 to April 2001 in order to categorize the air quality with respect to ozone. In the summer of 2000, the ozone measurements were also extended to four sites in the suburbs of Zagreb. Methods of active and passive sampling with nitrite ion as a reagent were used. In the northern part of the town ozone was analyzed by an automatic device. Automatic device measurements in the years 1999 and 2000 showed that hourly averages of ozone concentrations did not exceed the Croatian recommended value of the 98th percentile (180 g m^–3). Over the two-year period, 24-h averages occasionally exceed 110 g m^–3 in city center and in the northern part of the town. Regardless of these isolated examples, ozone was well within acceptable concentrations. Ozone concentrations measured in summer 2000 were higher in the suburbs of Zagreb than in the city. The 98th percentile values higher than 110 g m^–3 were recorded at three sites.     

Precipitation, pH and metal load in AMD river basins: an application of fuzzy clustering algorithms to the process characterization

In the present work, Acid Mine Drainage (AMD) processes in the Chorrito Stream, which flows into the Cobica River (Iberian Pyrite Belt, Southwest Spain) are characterized by means of clustering techniques based on fuzzy logic. Also, pH behavior in contrast to precipitation is clearly explained, proving that the influence of rainfall inputs on the acidity and, as a result, on the metal load of a riverbed undergoing AMD processes highly depends on the moment when it occurs. In general, the riverbed dynamic behavior is the response to the sum of instant stimuli produced by isolated rainfall, the seasonal memory depending on the moment of the target hydrological year and, finally, the own inertia of the river basin, as a result of an accumulation process caused by age-long mining activity.     

Heavy metal concentration in fish tissues inhabiting waters of “Buško Blato” reservoar (Bosnia and Herzegovina)

Heavy metals concentration (mercury, lead, cadmium, arsenic, copper, zinc and chromium) in tissues (muscles, liver, kidney and gonads) of Dalmatian barbelgudgeon, the nase, the souffie and brown trout, inhabiting waters of Busko Blato reservoir in Bosnia and Herzegovina, has been determined by atomic absorption spectrophotometry. The meat of the tested fish sorts does not contain elevated concentration of most analyzed heavy metals with exception of lead (higher than MAC in Italy, Germany and Denmark) and mercury (in muscles of brown trout higher than MAC in most countries). The lowest level of all heavy metals is always detected in gonads, with higher values in fry compared to milt for copper, zinc, chromium and arsenic. The highest copper concentration is observed in the liver from the souffie which is suggested as a suitable biomonitor for copper intoxication. In muscles of all fish sorts, lead was always present in much higher concentration than cadmium, while in kidneys of most fish sorts, lead and cadmium concentrations were similar. We showed that bioaccumulation of some heavy metals in the fish sorts analyzed is tissue and sex dependent. Also, we concluded that the small water exchange in reversible shallow reservoir does not induce elevated concentration of heavy metals in fish tissues inhabiting Busko Blato.     

Pollen allergy related to the area of residence in the city of Córdoba,south-west Spain

The aim of this study was to analyse the relationship between the distribution of hay-fever patients in the city of Córdoba, south-western Iberian Peninsula, and the specific atmospheric biological content originating from local sources. Four different districts were established in the metropolitan area of the city, according to vegetational and urbanistic characteristics. Air samples were taken in each area using portable Hirst-type samplers (Lanzoni VPPS 1000) and the spectrum of biological content was defined. Patients attending the Allergy Unit at Córdoba Teaching Hospital in 2000 with allergic rhinitis and/or asthma, and displaying a positive reaction to aeroallergen extracts, were distributed within the areas as a function of their district of residence. Aerobiological results revealed differences in pollen content between areas, in terms of both quantity and number of pollen types recorded. These differences were largely due to proximity to rural areas, prevalence of pollen from typically urban species and the possible effect of urban architecture as a barrier to the dispersal/ concentration of particles and other pollutants. Patients were not uniformly distributed within the city. The majority lived in districts in which pollen from rural species was mixed with pollen from ornamentals. Patients living in typically urban districts displayed a higher prevalence of allergy to pollen from ornamentals. It is concluded that a high degree of exposure to the same environment may influence the development of sensitisation to the particular pollen load associated with that area.     

Optimization of a multielement sequential extraction method employing an experimental design approach for metal partitioning in soils and sediments

The optimisation of a simple multielement extraction method employing an experimental design approach is described. The method uses centrifugation to pass one extractant solution at varying pH through a contaminated soil sample. The nature and concentration of the acid, rate of centrifugation and time, number of sequential leachates and the ratio of extractant volume: sample weight have been studied in order to obtain the optimum conditions for extraction. A fractional factorial experimental design was performed, and the results were used to identify significance which was then evaluated by carrying out a central composite experimental approach. Once optimum conditions had been obtained, sequential leaches were analysed by ICP-AES and chemometrics were employed to identify the composition of each component. Comparisons have been made with previous studies and tentative assignments, based on well defined separated fractions and percentage compositions for individual elements, used to identify the different physico-chemical components in the sample.     

The Chemistry of Soils, Rocks and Plant Bioindicators in Three Ecosystems of the Holy Cross Mountains, Poland

In June of 2000, biogeochemical study was carried out in three ecosystems of the Holy Cross Mountains (south-central Poland). This paper presents element concentrations and stable sulfur (and in one site lead) isotope ratios in rocks, detailed soil profiles, and plant bioindicators including epiphytic lichen Hypogymnia physodes (L.) Nyl., mosses (Pleurozium schreberi (Brid.) Mitt., Hypnum cupressiforme Hedw. S. Str., Hylocomium splendens (Hedw.) B.S.G.), Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), common birch (Betula pendula Roth.), aspen (Populus tremula L.) and English oak (Quercus robur L.). Chemical analyses were performed with ICP-AES and AAS methods in the accredited laboratory (Central Chemical Laboratory of the Polish Geological Institute in Warsaw). The principal objective of this study was to compare the chemical composition of rocks, soils and selected plant bioindicators between investigation sites using the same methods of sample collection, preparation and analyses. The results of this study have shown that there is a high variability in concentrations of elements in plant bioindicators from the same sites that can not be explained only by soil properties or anthropogenic influence. This conclusion indicates that for biomonitoring purposes (especially with vascular plants) we cannot neglect individual features of the species examined.