全球粮食生产的预测问题

本文讨论了全球粮食生产体系能力预测模型的研发问题，文章特别对影响粮食生产的各种因素进行了鉴定和分析，并且对它们的相对影响和可预测性进行了估计。     

Role of vitamin A in the haematotoxicity of hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH) in the rat.

The haematotoxicity of technical hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH) (1000 ppm) was investigated in male albino rats fed with diet free of vitamin A or containing vitamin A at 2000 or 10(5) I.U./kg. Assessment of HCH-induced haematotoxicity at the end of the 7 weeks feeding period was done on the basis of haemoglobin content, total count of red blood cells and white blood cells and the differential counts of the white blood cells as well as by parameters such as packed cell volume, mean corpuscular volume, mean corpuscular haemoglobin, mean corpuscular haemoglobin content, prothrombin time and clotting time. In the rats fed with vitamin A-free diet containing HCH, significant reductions were noticed in the total white blood cells count, clotting time and prothrombin time indicating severe haematotoxicity. Differential count of the white blood cells of these rats revealed a non-significant reduction in the lymphocyte count. The only indication of haematotoxicity caused by hexachlorocyclohexane in the vitamin A supplemented rats was a slight but statistically significant reduction of the total count of white blood cells. These results demonstrate that the haematotoxicity of hexachlorocyclohexane in the rats is enhanced by vitamin A-deficiency and its supplementation particularly in excess but not at hypervitaminotic level is protective against the toxicity.     

Composition of Floating Debris in Harbours of the United States

As part of a programme to characterize floating anthropogenic debris in the aquatic environment, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) conducted 18 field surveys in the harbours of major metropolitan cities of the east, west, and Gulf coasts of the United States and the Mid-Atlantic Bight. the surveys were designed to provide information on the types, relative amounts, and distributions of aquatic debris in different geographic regions of the United States. Neuston nets (0.33 mm mesh) were used to collect surface debris during outgoing tides on two or three consecutive days in selected areas of each city. After each net tow, the debris, which ranged in size from small resin pellets to large plastic sheeting pieces, was identified, categorized, and counted. the data are being used to qualitatively characterize aquatic debris in coastal metropolitan areas, to examine potential regional variations, and to tentatively identify potential sources.     

Multicriteria Group Decision-making Model for Environmental Conflict Analysis in the Cape Region,Mexico

This paper is concerned with developing a model for group decision making under multiple criteria. The multiple criteria group decision making (MCGDM)problem involves a set of feasible land use patterns that are evaluated on the basis of multiple, conflicting and noncommensurate criteria by a group of individuals. The model integrates the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and an integer mathematical programming method. The former provides a tool for structuring the decision problem and determining land suitability for different socio-economicactivities (the uses of land), the latter is used to identify the land use pattern that maximizes consensus among interest groups. The model is used to analyze environmental conflict over land resource allocation in the Cape Region of Mexico.     

Postfledging Dispersal of White-crowned Pigeons: Implications for Conservation of Deciduous Seasonal Forests in the Florida Keys

From 1988 to 1991, we studied the postfledging dispersal of 31 radio-tagged White-crowned Pigeons ( Columba leucocephala ) from three natal keys in Florida Bay. Immature birds dispersed from the natal keys at 26–45 days after batching, and most young dispersed more than 20 km during the first 10 days postdispersal. Dispersing birds flew either north to the Florida mainland or east to northeast to the mainline Florida Keys. On the mainland, immature birds fed nearly exclusively within Everglades National Park or an adjacent state wildlife management area. On the mainline keys, White-crowned Pigeons selectively used 5.01–20 ha forest fragments (p < 0.10) during the first 72 hours postdispersal. After this period, dispersing birds showed no preference among fragment size classes but used deciduous seasonal forests more frequently than suburban habitat(p < 0.10). The spatial pattern of dispersal on the mainline keys suggests that, during the first 72 hours postdispersal. White-crowned Pigeons are not able to reach northern Key Largo, where 69% of the deciduous seasonal forests are protected in state or federal ownership. Protection of large forest fragments, especially on southern Key Largo, should be a priority for maintaining populations of White-crowned Pigeons. These forests provide a series of "stepping stones" that enable dispersing immature White-crowned Pigeons to fly to more distant areas where habitat availability is less restricted. This species is threatened in Florida and may play an important role in maintaining plant species diversity in the seasonal deciduous forests of south Florida by dispersing seeds of at least 37 species of trees and shrubs. Protection of sufficient habitat to allow successful postfledging dispersal of this important seed disperser will also protect the ecosystem's biodiversity.     

An experimental investigation of explanations for inconsistencies in responses to second offers in double referenda

This paper demonstrates the potential for induced preference experiments to test previously unverified explanations of observed behavior in contingent valuation surveys. The NOAA Panel on Contingent Valuation called for experimental evidence on potential biases in the double referendum format. We test Carson, Groves, and Machina's (Incentives and informational properties of preference questions, Plenary address to the European Association of Resource and Environmental Economists, Oslo, Norway, June 1999) simple cost uncertainty and weighted averaging explanations of inconsistent responses to follow-up offers in such double referenda against a baseline of certainty and truthful preference revelation. The results find evidence to support the Weighted Average hypothesis. Results regarding the cost uncertainty hypothesis are more ambiguous and merit further investigation.     

DNA sequence evidence for speciation,paraphyly and a Mesozoic dispersal of cancellothyridid articulate brachiopods

Because the classification of extant and fossil articulate brachiopods is based largely upon shell characters observable in fossils, it identifies morphotaxa whose biological status can, in practice, best be inferred from estimates of genetic divergence. Allozyme polymorphism and restriction fragment length polymorphism of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA RFLP) have been used to show that nuclear and mitochondrial genetic divergence between samples of the cancellothyridid brachiopods Terebratulina septentrionalis from Canada and T. retusa from Europe is compatible with biological speciation, but the genetic distances obtained were biased by methodological limitations. Here, we report estimates of divergence in 12S rDNA mitochondrial sequences within and between samples of these brachiopods. The sequence-based genetic distance between these samples (5.98ǂ.07% SE) is at least 10 times greater than within them and, since they also differ in a complex life-history trait, their species status is considered to be securely established. Divergence levels between 12S rDNA genes of three other cancellothyridids, T. unguicula from Alaska, T. crossei from near Japan, and Cancellothyris hedleyi from near Australia are higher than between the two North Atlantic species, and the mean nucleotide distance between all these cancellothyrids is similar to the mean distance between species of Littorina (Mollusca: Gastropoda). Sequences of both 12S and 16S genes from cancellothyridids and other short-looped brachiopod species show neither saturation nor lineage-specific rate differences and, when analysed with different outgroups, either separately or together, yield one unexpected, but well-supported, tree with Alaskan T. unguicula basal and C. hedleyi nested within Terebratulina, i.e. these genera are paraphyletic. A geologically dated divergence between Antarctic and New Zealand species of the short-looped brachiopod Liothyrella is used to calibrate the rate of 12S divergence at ca. 0.1% per million years (MY), and this rate is used to infer that T. septentrionalis and T. retusa have been diverging for ca. 60 MY and that they and T. unguicula have been diverging from their last common ancestor for ca. 100 MY. This indicates a Mesozoic origin for the present-day distribution of cancellothyridids and the basal position of T. unguicula suggests a possible North Pacific centre of origin, with separate Atlantic and Pacific radiations. The inclusion of Cancellothyris within Terebratulina also shows that adult shell characters such as umbo, foramen and symphytium shape, whilst probably indispensible for the practical classification of fossils, are not reliable guides to genealogy.     

GHG Mitigation Potential and Cost in Tropical Forestry - Relative Role for Agroforestry

This paper summarizes studies of carbon mitigation potential (MP) and costs of forestry options in seven developing countries with a focus on the role of agroforestry. A common methodological approach known as comprehensive mitigation assessment process (COMAP) was used in each study to estimate the potential and costs between 2000 and 2030. The approach requires the projection of baseline and mitigation land-use scenarios derived from the demand for forest products and forestland for other uses such as agriculture and pasture. By using data on estimated carbon sequestration, emission avoidance, costs and benefits, the model enables one to estimate cost effectiveness indicators based on monetary benefit per t C, as well as estimates of total mitigation costs and potential when the activities are implemented at equilibrium level. The results show that about half the MP of 6.9 Gt C (an average of 223 Mt C per year) between 2000 and 2030 in the seven countries could be achieved at a negative cost, and the other half at costs not exceeding $100 per t C. Negative cost indicates that non-carbon revenue is sufficient to offset direct costs of about half of the options. The agroforestry options analyzed bear a significant proportion of the potential at medium to low cost per t C when compared to other options. The role of agroforestry in these countries varied between 6% and 21% of the MP, though the options are much more cost effective than most due to the low wage or opportunity cost of rural labor. Agroforestry options are attractive due to the large number of people and potential area currently engaged in agriculture, but they pose unique challenges for carbon and cost accounting due to the dispersed nature of agricultural activities in the tropics, as well as specific difficulties arising from requirements for monitoring, verification, leakage assessment and the establishment of credible baselines.