Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

Combined influence of food level and inoculation density on competition between <Emphasis Type="Italic">Anuraeopsis fissa</Emphasis> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Brachionus patulus</Emphasis> or <Emphasis Type="Italic">Brachionus macracanthus</Emphasis> (Rotifera: Brachionidae)

We tested separately the effect of two taxonomically related rotifers (B. patulus and B. macracanthus) on the population dynamics of another species (A. fissa) at low (0.5 ×10 ⁶) and high food levels (1.5 × 10⁶ cells/ml of Chlorella vulgaris) using different inoculation densities (0–100%). We also quantified the impact of A. fissa on the two brachionid species. Regardless of the presence of the competing species, an increase in the availability of food led to increase in the abundances of the three rotifers. The population growth of B. patulus, B. macracanthus, or A. fissa was affected negatively when cultured together with another species. An increase in the initial density of any one of the competing species became advantageous to maintain a certain population size. At a low algal food level, B. patulus was able to suppress A. fissa more strongly than B. macracanthus. On the other hand, at a high food level, B. macracanthus suppressed the population of A. fissa more strongly than B. patulus. Peak population densities for A. fissa varied from about 150 to 1000 ind./ml, depending on food density and the presence of competitors. The rate of population increase (r) of A. fissa, B. patulus, and B. macracanthus increased with an increase in food availability but decreased with increasing initial density of the competitor. Both Brachionus spp. experienced negative growth rates in the presence of A. fissa, especially at a high initial density of the latter. Published in Russian in Ekologiya, 2007, Vol. 38, No. 5, pp. 381–390. The article was submitted by the authors in English.     

Effects of two organophosphorus insecticides on some biochemical constituents in the nervous system and liver of rabbits

Male Baladi rabbits were acutely and sub-chronically intoxicated with cyanofenphos and profenophos. The levels of cholesterol, triglycerides, B-lipoproteins and total proteins were determined in the serum, brain, spinal cord and sciatic nerve of rabbits. Moreover, the activities of alkaline phosphatase, acid phosphatase and glutamic-pyruvic transaminase were determined in the liver of the animals. The whole studies revealed that the biochemical constituents were highly affected by the tested insecticides. Also, the liver function suffered from adverse effects of the tested insecticides.     

Adaptive reversals in acid tolerance in copepods from lakes recovering from historical stress.

Anthropogenic habitat disturbance can often lead to rapid evolution of environmental tolerances in taxa that are able to withstand the stressor. What we do not understand, however, is how species respond when the stressor no longer exists, especially across landscapes and over a considerable length of time. Once anthropogenic disturbance is removed and if there is an ecological trade-off associated with local adaptation to such an historical stressor, then evolutionary theory would predict evolutionary reversals. On the Boreal Shield, tens of thousands of lakes acidified as a result of SO2 emissions, but many of these lakes are undergoing chemical recovery as a consequence of reduced emissions. We investigated the adaptive consequences of disturbance and recovery to zooplankton living in these lakes by asking (1) if contemporary evolution of acid tolerance had arisen among Leptodiaptomus minutus copepod populations in multiple circum-neutral lakes with and without historical acidification, (2) if L. minutus populations were adaptively responding to reversals in selection in historically acidified lakes that had recovered to pH 6.0 for at least 6-8 years, and (3) if there was a fitness trade-off for L. minutus individuals with high acid tolerance at circum-neutral pH. L. minutus populations had higher acid tolerances in circum-neutral lakes with a history of acidification than in local and distant lakes that were never acidified. However, copepods in circum-neutral acid-recovering lakes were less acid-tolerant than were copepods in lakes with longer recovery time. This adaptive reversal in acid tolerance of L. minutus populations following lake recovery was supported by the results of a laboratory experiment that indicated a fitness trade-off in copepods with high acid tolerances at circum-neutral pH. These responses appear to have a genetic basis and suggest that L. minutus is highly adaptive to changes in environmental conditions. Therefore, restoration managers should focus on removing environmental stressors, and adaptable species will be able to reverse evolutionary responses to environmental disturbance in the years following recovery.     

Assessment of the natural-cultural resources in Çanakkale for nature-based tourism

While the world is going into different tourism expectations, the tourism understanding in Turkey is defined as tourism in the sea-sand-sun triangle. However, it is possible to contribute to the income and local development of the indigenous people by developing nature-based tourism. Besides, with the sustainable use and preservation of the natural-cultural assets, the damage of the traditional tourism industry on the natural and cultural environment could be reduced. In this study, it is aimed to bring up the nature-based tourism concept in Çanakkale by evaluating the nature-based tourism industry in the general of Turkey and assessing the natural-cultural resources that Çanakkale comprehends. The most important areas that have a nature-based tourism potential in Çanakkale and the tourism activities that are most suitable for these areas have been determined.     

Coat color polymorphism in populations of the northern mole vole in the Ural Region

Collections made in the course of long-term field studies on ecology of the northern mole vole Ellobius talpinus Pall. in the Ural Region and neighboring areas (more than 2000 individuals from 24 points of the species range) were used to analyze geographic variation in its coat color (color morphs). On the basis of long-term observations (1985–1999) on marked animals from a polymorphic population (Kurtamyshskii raion, Kurgan oblast), the life spans of males and females and the dependence of life span on population density and structure were estimated in animals of different color morphs. Each color morph of E. talpinus was shown to have specific features of the seasonal dynamics of age structure and migrations.