Factors affecting the quantitative uncertainty of the estimated short-term intake. Part I—Calculation methods

ABSTRACT

The calculation of the combined uncertainty of the international estimated short-term intake (IESTI) of ethephon residues in apples is shown as an example. The ethephon residues in apples were reported by the Joint FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations)/WHO (World Health Organization) Meeting on Pesticide Residues (JMPR). The apple consumption data were taken from the IESTI (international short-term intake) calculation template used by the JMPR. The IESTI was calculated with the currently used method (case 2a) and a proposed one recommended by the EFSA (European Food Safety Authority)/RIVM (Dutch National Institute for Public Health) Scientific Workshop co-sponsored by FAO and WHO. In this example, the ratio of IESTI_proposed/IESTI_current and their combined relative uncertainty are about 2.8, and 1.7, respectively. The larger IESTI and uncertainty obtained with the proposed equation are the consequence of calculation only with the large portion (LP) instead of its combination with unit mass, and the MRL instead of the highest residue (HR). The LP is the major contributor to the combined uncertainty. Both the calculated IESTI and its combined uncertainty depend on the actual food – pesticide residue combination, and should be calculated for each case.     

Monitoring of meteorological and hydrological droughts in the Vistula basin (Poland)

The article presents the course of meteorological droughts in Vistula subcatchments in years 1981–2010 and their influence on the occurrence of hydrological droughts. Using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) as an indicator of meteorological drought on the one hand and the Standardized Water-level Index (SWI) and Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) as indicators of hydrological drought on the other, the mutual relationships between precipitation conditions and hydrological conditions were evaluated, as well as the relationships between the two drought types. Studies were conducted for three cumulative periods of these indices, of 12, 24, and 48 months. It was determined that meteorological droughts occurred earliest in the north-western and central part of the basin, and latest in areas lying above 300 m a.s.l. and in the south of Poland. Total duration, depending on the cumulative period, for SPI comprised from 38 to 41% of the analyzed period and for SWI (35–47%) and SRI (24–51%). The strongest relationships were identified in the central part of the Vistula (0.8?<?r?<?0.85), while the weakest relationships were recorded in the foothill region (r?<?0.5). There were also indicated non-climate-related factors influencing those relationships (underground reservoirs, diverse Vistula water resource usage for municipal and industrial intake).     

Trace analysis of parabens preservatives in drinking water treatment sludge,treated, and mineral water samples

Parabens have been widely used as antimicrobial agents, mainly in food products, pharmaceuticals, and cosmetics. Although they are known as safe preservatives, they also cause some harm to human health, which has been discussed lately. Therefore, the aim of this study was to evaluate the occurrence of nine parabens (including isomers) in mineral and drinking waters, besides in drinking water treatment sludge (DWTS) samples with determination by liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). Both methods solid phase extraction (SPE) and QuEChERS were validated. Calibration curves showed a correlation coefficient of 0.99 for all compounds. LOQ values ranged from 0.04 to 4 μg L^?1 in aqueous matrices and from 5 to 500 ng g^?1 in DWTS. Recoveries between 70 and 115% were reached with RSD below 20% for all compounds in SPE whereas recoveries between 62 and 119% were found with RSD below 20% for almost all compounds in QuEChERS. Matrix effect had low values (<?20%); it was only above 20% for methylparaben in the SPE and for pentylparaben in the QuEChERS. Using a quick and simple extraction procedures with SPE, QuEChERS, and LC-MS/MS analyses, these methods proved to be selective and sensitive. They were successfully applied to real samples (treated water, mineral water, and sludge), and methylparaben was detected at concentration levels below 0.242 μg L^?1 in mineral and treated water samples and 10 ng g^?1 in DWTS samples.     

Discerning the factors explaining the change in energy efficiency

Due to the high rates of energy consumption and its impact on environment over the last decades, policy decision-makers are increasingly recognising the need to take actions that allow to address problems associated with the deployment of non-renewable resources and climate changes. One field of action has been the promotion of measures that contribute to improve energy efficiency of countries. The purpose of this study is to identify the main factors explaining changes in energy efficiency applying the multiplicative Log Mean Divisia Index decomposition method for a set of countries (Portugal, UK, Brazil and China) with different socio-economic background and energy mix. The results show that overall energy efficiency trends display different patterns between countries and the same happens within each country from a sectoral perspective. Major drivers of improvements of overall energy efficiency were the intensity effect and the affluence effect, whereas the driver that hampered those improvements was the energy consumption per capita. Some policy implications derived from the results achieved are: policy decision-makers should support measures that promote the adoption of energy-saving technologies resulting from new technological developments; policy measures should be directed to raise awareness of end-users regarding energy efficiency and energy conservation efforts; policy measures promoting economic growth through the development (or expansion) of sectors of activity that consume less energy can also be implemented; finally, policy instruments may also be used to reduce the costs of implementing energy efficiency and energy-saving measures to households and firms.     

Life cycle assessment tool of electricity generation in Portugal

This paper investigates multi-stakeholder arrangements initiated by businesses and NGOs from the North that aim to enhance a more sustainable agricultural production at specific localities in Southern countries. We aim to better understand the search for concerted action in multi-actor arrangements. Therefore, this paper presents a diagnostic framework with three strategic challenges the partnership projects are facing: linking global economic objectives to local needs, values and interests; bridging public and private interests and responsibilities; and seeking trade-offs between social, environmental and economic values. Starting from the partnerships’ Theory of Change, this diagnostic framework is applied to comparative case studies of partnership projects in the cocoa sector in Indonesia, which are part of a Northern-based public–private partnership to improve farmers’ prospective. It is concluded that the economic reality faced by the farmers differs from that of the Northern actors; collaboration with governments is difficult because of different organizational cultures; and the partnership projects underestimate the strength of vested social relations the smallholders are part of. Overall, the initiators of the partnerships seem to work with a too restricted economic interpretation of the local reality.     

Trees on the move: using decision theory to compensate for climate change at the regional scale in forest social-ecological systems

Regional Environmental Change - The adaptation of social-ecological systems such as managed forests depends largely on decisions taken by forest managers who must choose among a wide range of...     

From vineyards to feedlots: a fund-flow scanning of sociometabolic transition in the Vallès County (Catalonia) 1860–1956–1999

Regional Environmental Change - We analyse the changes to agricultural metabolism in four municipalities of Vallès County (Catalonia, Iberia) by accounting for their agroecosystem funds and...     

Comparing canopy leaf temperature of three Central European tree species based on simultaneous confidence bands for penalized splines

Temperature is an important physical factor that is known to strongly affect biodiversity as well as ecosystems and their functioning. However, research in this area is still relatively limited; this may also be attributed to the multitude of influencing factors and the complexity of the statistics involved. This study analyzes the differences between the surface temperature of three Central European broadleaf tree species. A better understanding of these differences may help to elucidate the role of microclimate in biodiversity. We consider a time series of high-resolution thermal images taken from a meteorological observation tower and calculate mean canopy leaf temperatures for beech, ash and maple (Fagus silvatica, Fraxinus excelsior and Acer pseudoplatanus). In a first step, comparable image areas are extracted from the thermal image sections of the crown of each tree species avoiding shadow areas, branches, etc. We used an automatic segmentation technique, the Otsu thresholding. Extracted canopy leaf temperature values were then processed and the resulting temperature profiles estimated by O’Sullivan penalized splines. For comparing the differences in canopy leaf temperature over time, we propose the construction of simultaneous confidence bands. The analyses show that there are significant—though small—differences in canopy surface temperature between the three tree species.     

Influence of the secondary motions on pollutant mixing in a meandering open channel flow

This paper presents large eddy simulation of turbulent flow in a meandering open channel with smooth wall and rectangular cross-section. The Reynolds number based on the channel height is 40,000 and the aspect ratio of the cross-section is 4.48. The depth-averaged mean stream-wise velocity agree well to experimental measurements. In this specific case, two interacting cells are formed that swap from one bend to the other. Transport and mixing of a pollutant is analysed using three different positions of release, e.g. on the inner bank, on the outer bank and on the centre of the cross section. The obtained depth-average mean concentration profiles are reasonably consistent with available experimental data. The role of the secondary motions in the mixing processes is the main focus of the discussion. It is found that the mixing when the scalar is released on the centre of the cross-section is stronger and faster than the mixing of the scalar released on the sides. When the position of release is close to a bank side, the mixing is weaker and a clear concentration of scalar close to the corresponding side-wall can be observed in both cases.     

Larval outbreaks in West Greenland: Instant and subsequent effects on tundra ecosystem productivity and CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> exchange

Insect outbreaks can have important consequences for tundra ecosystems. In this study, we synthesise available information on outbreaks of larvae of the noctuid moth Eurois occulta in Greenland. Based on an extensive dataset from a monitoring programme in Kobbefjord, West Greenland, we demonstrate effects of a larval outbreak in 2011 on vegetation productivity and CO₂ exchange. We estimate a decreased carbon (C) sink strength in the order of 118–143 g C m^?2, corresponding to 1210–1470 tonnes C at the Kobbefjord catchment scale. The decreased C sink was, however, counteracted the following years by increased primary production, probably facilitated by the larval outbreak increasing nutrient turnover rates. Furthermore, we demonstrate for the first time in tundra ecosystems, the potential for using remote sensing to detect and map insect outbreak events.