Multi-GCM projections of future drought and climate variability indicators for the Mediterranean region

Future climate conditions for the Mediterranean region based on an ensemble of 16 Global Climate Models are expressed and mapped using three approaches, giving special attention to the intermodel uncertainty. (1) The scenarios of mean seasonal temperature and precipitation agree with the projections published previously by other authors. The results show an increase in temperature in all seasons and for all parts of the Mediterranean with good intermodel agreement. Precipitation is projected to decrease in all parts and all seasons (most significantly in summer) except for the northernmost parts in winter. The intermodel agreement for the precipitation changes is lower than for temperature. (2) Changes in drought conditions are represented using the Palmer Drought Severity Index and its intermediate Z-index product. The results indicate a significant decrease in soil moisture in all seasons, with the most significant decrease occurring in summer. The displayed changes exhibit high intermodel agreement. (3) The climate change scenarios are defined in terms of the changes in parameters of the stochastic daily weather generator calibrated with the modeled daily data; the emphasis is put on the parameters, which affect the diurnal and interdiurnal variability in weather series. These scenarios indicate a trend toward more extreme weather in the Mediterranean. Temperature maxima will increase not only because of an overall rise in temperature means, but partly (in some areas) because of increases in temperature variability and daily temperature range. Increased mean daily precipitation sums on wet days occurring in some seasons, and some parts of the Mediterranean may imply higher daily precipitation extremes, and decreased probability of wet day occurrence will imply longer drought spells all across the Mediterranean.     

Cooling Towers and the Environment

Measurements of natural draft cooling tower plume behavior, as well as meteorological variables, were obtained from aircraft flights near major power plants of the American Electric Power System. Persistence of the visible plume to great distances depends essentially on ambient humidity. Atmospheric stability at plume elevation was also important. Cooling tower-induced fog at ground-level was never observed in any of the tests, and aerodynamic downwash of the visible plume was absent also. The cooling towers did cause modification of natural clouds and they occasionally shadowed some local areas from the sun. Merging of the stack and cooling tower plumes was a common occurrence.     

Pollutant Removal from Wood and Coal Flue Gases by Soil Treatment

If many homeowners convert to solid fuels for heating, residential flue gases will be a large source of air pollution. Control of this pollution requires an inexpensive, reliable, and effective method of flue gas treatment. One such method is to force flue gases through soil beds. Such soil treatment removes all detectable smoke, odor, and polynuclear organic matter (POM), up to 97% of the CO, and at least 97% of the SO₂ from flue gases of wood and coal combustion. The technique is low cost, reliable, almost maintenance-free, and also appears suitable for other small point sources of air pollution.     

Comparison of Statistical Designs and Experimental Protocols Used to Evaluate Rain Acidity Effects on Field-Grown Soybeans

Published results of four field experiments testing effects of acidic precipitation in field-grown soybeans have led to contradictory conclusions. This paper examines the experimental procedures and protocols of the four experiments which could have contributed to differences in both the reported crop yields and the interpretations or conclusions drawn from the experiments.

The most important difference among the experiments is in their statistical designs. Two of the field layouts used only one plot per treatment, providing replication only for plants, rows or sectors within plots, but not among plots. By using real data from a highly replicated experiment it is shown that with such deficient statistical designs treatment effects cannot be separated from other microenvironmental variables peculiar to a specific plot location.

The other two experiments were highly replicated. They were designed to detect differences of approximately 10% among treatment means. Type 1 error, a, was predetermined, and replication was sufficient to keep type 2 error low. This design was made possible because a preliminary experiment was available to estimate the expected components of variance. Despite differences in the procedures and protocols among the four experiments, it is primarily the quality of the experimental design which has determined their validity and relative utility for crop loss assessment.     

The Relationship between Cross-Sectional and Time Series Studies

Abstract

There is a dearth of information on dust emissions from sources that are unique to the U.S. Department of Defense testing and training activities. However, accurate emissions factors are needed for these sources so that military installations can prepare accurate particulate matter (PM) emission inventories. One such source, coarse and fine PM (PM₁₀ and PM_2.5) emissions from artillery backblast testing on improved gun positions, was characterized at the Yuma Proving Ground near Yuma, AZ, in October 2005. Fugitive emissions are created by the shockwave from artillery pieces, which ejects dust from the surface on which the artillery is resting. Other contributions of PM can be attributed to the combustion of the propellants. For a 155–mm howitzer firing a range of propellant charges or zones, amounts of emitted PM₁₀ ranged from ～19 g of PM₁₀ per firing event for a zone 1 charge to 92 g of PM₁₀ per firing event for a zone 5. The corresponding rates for PM_2.5 were ～9 g of PM_2.5 and 49 g of PM_2.5 per firing. The average measured emission rates for PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 appear to scale with the zone charge value. The measurements show that the estimated annual contributions of PM₁₀ (52.2 t) and PM_2.5 (28.5 t) from artillery backblast are insignificant in the context of the 2002 U.S. Environment Protection Agency (EPA) PM emission inventory. Using national–level activity data for artillery fire, the most conservative estimate is that backblast would contribute the equivalent of 5 x 10^–4% and 1.6 x 10^–3% of the annual total PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 fugitive dust contributions, respectively, based on 2002 EPA inventory data.     

Emission Impacts of Electric Vehicles

Alternative vehicular fuels are proposed as a strategy to reduce urban air pollution. In this paper, we analyze the emission Impacts of electric vehicles In California for two target years, 1995 and 2010. We consider a range of assumptions regarding electricity consumption of electric vehicles, emission control technologies for power plants, and the mix of primary energy sources for electricity generation. We find that, relative to continued use of gasoline-powered vehicles, the use of electric vehicles would dramatically and unequivocally reduce carbon monoxide and hydrocarbons. Under most conditions, nitrogen oxide emissions would decrease moderately. Sulfur oxide and particulate emissions would Increase or slightly decrease. Because other areas of the United States tend to use more coal in electricity generation and have less stringent emission controls on power plants, electric vehicles may have less emission reduction benefits outside California.     

Site Sampling and Treatability Studies for Demonstration of WasteChem’s Asphalt Encapsulation Technology Under EPA’s SITE Program

ABSTRACT

Exposures from indoor environments are a major issue for evaluating total long-term personal exposures to the fine fraction (<2.5μm in aerodynamic diameter) of particulate matter (PM). It is widely accepted in the indoor air quality (IAQ) research community that biocontamination is one of the important indoor air pollutants. Major indoor air biocontaminants include mold, bacteria, dust mites, and other antigens. Once the biocontaminants or their metabolites become airborne, IAQ could be significantly deteriorated. The airborne biocontaminants or their metabolites can induce irritational, allergic, infectious, and chemical responses in exposed individuals.

Biocontaminants, such as some mold spores or pollen grains, because of their size and mass, settle rapidly within the indoor environment. Over time they may become nonviable and fragmented by the process of desiccation. Desiccated nonviable fragments of organisms are common and can be toxic or allergenic, depending upon the specific organism or organism component. Once these smaller and lighter fragments of biological PM become suspended in air, they have a greater tendency to stay suspended. Although some bioaerosols have been identified, few have been quantitatively studied for their prevalence within the total indoor PM with time, or for their affinity to penetrate indoors.

This paper describes a preliminary research effort to develop a methodology for the measurement of nonvi-able biologically based PM, analyzing for mold and ragweed antigens and endotoxins. The research objectives include the development of a set of analytical methods and the comparison of impactor media and sample size, and the quantification of the relationship between outdoor and indoor levels of bioaerosols. Indoor and outdoor air samples were passed through an Andersen nonviable cascade impactor in which particles from 0.2 to 9.0 um were collected and analyzed. The presence of mold, ragweed, and endotoxin was found in all eight size ranges. The presence of respirable particles of mold and pollen found in the fine particle size range from 0.2 to 5.25 um is evidence of fragmentation of larger source particles that are known allergens.     

Solvent Extraction Processes: A Survey of Systems in the SITE Program

Solvent extraction of contaminated soils, sludges and sediments has been successfully completed at a number of Superfund sites. Each commercialized process uses a unique operating system to extract organic contaminants from solids. These operating systems may be classified by the properties of the solvents each utilizes: (1) standard solvents, (2) near-critical fluids/liquified gases, and (3) critical solution temperature solvents. Pretreatment and post-treatment requirements vary depending upon the operating systems of the solvent extraction system. Future demonstrations of these technologies by the U.S. EPA’s Superfund Innovative Technology Evaluation Program will provide additional information regarding the efficacy of these processes.     

Controlled Enrichment System for Experimental Fumigation of Plants in the Field with Sulfur Dioxide

A prototype Free-Air Controlled Enrichment (FACE) system was developed at Brookhaven National "Laboratory (BNL) for the experimental control of gas concentrations in an open field, without any form of enclosure. This FACE system consists of a toroidal plenum chamber, 15 m in diameter, with a series of 32 vertical vent pipes from which the release of a test gas can be controlled. Data on gas concentration at the center of the array and wind velocity are fed to a microprocessor where a proportional, integrative, differential (PID) algorithm is used to regulate a mass-flow controller. Data on wind direction are used to control the opening and closing of the vertical vent pipes to maintain an upwind release. In 72 hours of continuous operation during which wind velocity varied between 0.3 to 8 m sec^-1, the FACE prototype maintained 1 -min averaged concentrations within twenty percent of the 40 ppb set point 94 percent of the time.