Eliciting expert knowledge in conservation science

Expert knowledge is used widely in the science and practice of conservation because of the complexity of problems, relative lack of data, and the imminent nature of many conservation decisions. Expert knowledge is substantive information on a particular topic that is not widely known by others. An expert is someone who holds this knowledge and who is often deferred to in its interpretation. We refer to predictions by experts of what may happen in a particular context as expert judgments. In general, an expert-elicitation approach consists of five steps: deciding how information will be used, determining what to elicit, designing the elicitation process, performing the elicitation, and translating the elicited information into quantitative statements that can be used in a model or directly to make decisions. This last step is known as encoding. Some of the considerations in eliciting expert knowledge include determining how to work with multiple experts and how to combine multiple judgments, minimizing bias in the elicited information, and verifying the accuracy of expert information. We highlight structured elicitation techniques that, if adopted, will improve the accuracy and information content of expert judgment and ensure uncertainty is captured accurately. We suggest four aspects of an expert elicitation exercise be examined to determine its comprehensiveness and effectiveness: study design and context, elicitation design, elicitation method, and elicitation output. Just as the reliability of empirical data depends on the rigor with which it was acquired so too does that of expert knowledge.     

Activity patterns and predatory behavior of an intertidal nemertean from rocky shores: Prosorhochmus nelsoni (Hoplonemertea) from the Southeast Pacific

Understanding the impact of environmental stressors on predator activity is a prerequisite to understanding the underlying mechanisms shaping community structure. The nemertean Prosorhochmus nelsoni is a common predator in the mid-intertidal zone on rocky shores along the Chilean coast, where it can reach very high abundances (up to 260 ind m⁻²) in algal turfs, algal crusts, barnacle crusts, and mixed substrata. Tidal and diurnal scans revealed that the activity of P. nelsoni is primarily restricted to night and early-morning low tides and is relatively low when air temperatures are high. On average, larger worms crawled faster than smaller worms, with their maximum velocity being influenced by substratum type. Their estimated rate of predation is 0.092 prey items nemertean⁻¹ day⁻¹, just below the laboratory rate of ~0.2 amphipods nemertean⁻¹ day⁻¹ previously estimated for this species. P. nelsoni consumes a diverse spectrum of prey items (i.e., amphipods, isopods, decapods, barnacles, and dipterans) and is possibly exerting a significant influence on its prey populations. We suggest that the opportunistic predatory behavior of this intertidal predator is caused by the trade-off between immediate persistence (e.g., avoidance of desiccation) and long-term survival through successful foraging.     

Environmental impact of historical harbour city Zadar (Croatia) on the composition of marine sediments and soils

Sediment samples and soils along the coast line of the Adriatic Sea were sampled along a transect near the coast line at Zadar/Croatia, ranging from north-western suburbs via the historical centre and the industrial area to south-east suburbs. The sediments were dominated by carbonates and clay minerals, and contaminations with Cd–Cu–Pb–Zn–TOC (total organic carbon) at the historical centre and the industrial site were detected, as well as P and Mo input at the mouth of a small creek, probably from agriculture. No trends between the composition of surface and subsurface sea sediments were seen. At the historic harbour site, total element concentrations versus grain size showed a minimum in the fine silt fraction for most of the elements analysed. The soil samples behind the shoreline were not carbonaceous, but dominated by Fe–Al– oxides, some contained high levels of Be–Cd–Cu–Sn–Zn. Surprisingly, high TOC values within the soils might be assigned to human impacts, not to humus. Contrary to data from street dust samples from Seoul city/Korea, which were measured within our laboratory at the same time, Pt–Ir–Au were at ambient levels due to the limited use of catalysts in cars in the Zadar area at the time of sampling.     

Decision‐Making Triggers in Adaptive Management

We analyzed whether decision‐making triggers increase accountability of adaptive‐management plans. Triggers are prenegotiated commitments in an adaptive‐management plan that specify what actions are to be taken and when on the basis of information obtained from monitoring. Triggers improve certainty that particular actions will be taken by agencies in the future. We conducted an in‐depth, qualitative review of the political and legal contexts of adaptive management and its application by U.S. federal agencies. Agencies must satisfy the judiciary that adaptive‐management plans meet substantive legal standards and comply with the U.S. National Environmental Policy Act. We examined 3 cases in which triggers were used in adaptive‐management plans: salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) in the Columbia River, oil and gas development by the Bureau of Land Management, and a habitat conservation plan under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. In all the cases, key aspects of adaptive management, including controls and preidentified feedback loops, were not incorporated in the plans. Monitoring and triggered mitigation actions were limited in their enforceability, which was contingent on several factors, including which laws applied in each case and the degree of specificity in how triggers were written into plans. Other controversial aspects of these plans revolved around who designed, conducted, interpreted, and funded monitoring programs. Additional contentious issues were the level of precaution associated with trigger mechanisms and the definition of ecological baselines used as points of comparison. Despite these challenges, triggers can be used to increase accountability, by predefining points at which an adaptive management plan will be revisited and reevaluated, and thus improve the application of adaptive management in its complicated political and legal context. Detonadores de la Toma de Decisiones en el Manejo Adaptativo     

A comparison of X-ray fluorescence and wet chemical analysis of air filter samples from a scrap lead smelting operation

Personal and area air samples were taken at a scrap lead smelter operation in a bullet manufacturing facility. Samples were taken using the 37-mm styrene-acrylonitrile closed-face filter cassette (CFC, the current US standard device for lead sampling), the 37-mm GSP or "cone" sampler, the 25-mm Institute of Occupational Medicine (IOM) inhalable sampler, and the 25-mm Button sampler (developed at the University of Cincinnati). Polyvinylchloride filters were used for sampling. The filters were pre- and post-weighed, and analyzed for lead content using a field-portable X-ray fluorescence (XRF) analyzer. The filters were then extracted with dilute nitric acid in an ultrasonic extraction bath and the solutions were analyzed by inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectroscopy. The 25-mm filters were analyzed using a single XRF reading, while three readings on different parts of the filter were taken from the 37-mm filters. The single reading from the 25-mm filters was adjusted for the nominal area of the filter to obtain the mass loading, while the three readings from the 37-mm filters were inserted into two different algorithms for calculating the mass loadings, and the algorithms were compared. The IOM sampler was designed for material collected in the body of the sampler to be part of the collected sample as well as that on the filter. Therefore, the IOM sampler cassettes were rinsed separately to determine if wall-loss corrections were necessary. All four samplers gave very good correlations between the two analytical methods above the limit of detection of the XRF procedure. The limit of detection for the 25-mm filters (5 microg) was lower than for the 37-mm filters (10 microg). The percentage of XRF results that were within 25% of the corresponding ICP results was evaluated. In addition, the bias from linear regression was estimated. Linear regression for the Button sampler and the IOM sampler using single readings and the GSP using all tested techniques for total filter loading gave acceptable XRF readings at loadings equivalent to sampling at the OSHA 8-hour Action Level and Permissible Exposure Limit. However, the CFC only had acceptable results when the center reading corrected for filter area was used, which was surprising, and may be a result of a limited data set. In addition to linear regression, simple estimation of bias indicated reasonable agreements between XRF and ICP results for single XRF readings on the Button sampler filters, (82% of the individual results within criterion), and on the IOM sampler filters (77% or 61%--see text), and on the GSP sampler filters using the OSHA algorithm (78%). As a result of this pilot project, all three samplers were considered suitable for inclusion in further field research studies.     

Correlations in the chemical composition of rural background atmospheric aerosol in the UK determined in real time using time-of-flight mass spectrometry

An aerosol time-of-flight mass spectrometer (ATOFMS) was used to determine, in real time, the size and chemical composition of individual particles in the atmosphere at the remote inland site of Eskdalemuir, Scotland. A total of 51,980 particles, in the size range 0.3-7.4 microm, were detected between the 25th and 30th June 2001. Rapid changes in the number density, size and chemical composition of the atmospheric aerosol were observed. These changes are attributed to two distinct types of air mass; a polluted air mass that had passed over the British mainland before reaching Eskdalemuir, interposed between two cleaner air masses that had arrived directly from the sea. Such changes in the background aerosol could clearly be very important to studies of urban aerosols and attempts at source apportionment. The results of an objective method of data analysis are presented. Correlations were sought between the occurrence of: lithium, potassium, rubidium, caesium, beryllium, strontium, barium, ammonium, amines, nitrate, nitrite, boron, mercury, sulfate, phosphate, fluorine, chlorine, bromine, iodine and carbon (both elemental and organic hydrocarbon) in both fine (d < 2.5 microm) and coarse (d > 2.5 microm) particle fractions. Several previously unreported correlations were observed, for instance between the elements lithium, beryllium and boron. The results suggest that about 2 in 3 of all fine particles (by number rather than by mass), and 1 in 2 of all coarse particles containing carbon, consisted of elemental carbon rather than organic hydrocarbon (although a bias in the sensitivity of the ATOFMS could have affected these numbers). The ratio of the number of coarse particles containing nitrate anions to the number of particles containing chloride anions exceeded unity when the air mass had travelled over the British mainland. The analysis also illustrates that an air mass of marine origin that had travelled slowly over agricultural land can accumulate amines and ammonium.     

Effects of concentrated drinking water injection on glutathione and glutathione-dependent enzymes in liver of Cyprinus carpio L

Two drinking water production plants located in North Italy, collecting water from the River Po (Plants 1 and 2) were chosen for this study. Water samples were collected before and after the disinfection process and at two points along the piping system. Water samples were concentrated by the solid-phase extraction system and injected intraperitoneally into specimens of Cyprinus carpio. The concentration of water samples was 3 l/equiv. In order to assess the effects of the water samples on carp liver, total glutathione and glutathione-dependent enzymes, such as glutathione S-transferase, glutathione peroxidase, glutathione reductase and glyoxalase I, were measured following this treatment for 6 days at two experimental times (3 and 6 days). Both water plant-treated carp showed a general increase of the enzymatic activities of glutathione S-transferase, and glutathione reductase which might be employed as potential biomarkers of oxidative stress induced by disinfected river water. Plant 1-treated carp showed higher glyoxalase I and glutathione levels and lower glutathione peroxidase activity. A depleted level of total glutathione and of glyoxalase I for specimens of water plant 2 (for both experimental times), without correlation with the distances in the pipeline, suggests that river plant water can also lead to potentially adverse effects on selected biochemical parameters in C. carpio.     

Changes in sewage sludge carbon forms along a treatment stream

The behaviour and fate of macronutrients and pollutants in sewage sludge applied to the land are affected by the chemical composition of the sludge organic matter, which in turn is influenced by both sewage source and by sewage treatment processes. In this study, (13)C nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy was used to characterise the organic matter of sludges collected at three different points along the treatment stream of a municipal sewage works with a domestic catchment. Sludge at the first point, an undigested liquid (UL) sludge, had a substantially different composition to the anaerobically digested (AD) and dewatered sludge cake (DC) materials, which were similar to each other. In particular, the UL sludge contained more alkyl C than the AD or DC sludges. All three sludges were found to contain mobile alkyl C that is poorly observed using the cross polarisation (CP) technique, necessitating the use of the less sensitive, but more quantitatively reliable direct polarisation (DP) technique to obtain accurate distributions of C types.     

Biological effect monitoring in dab (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Limanda limanda</Emphasis>) using gene transcript of CYP1A1 or EROD—a comparison

BACKGROUND, AIM, AND SCOPE: Gene expression analyses with real-time (RT)-polymerase chain reaction (PCR) gains importance in marine monitoring. This new technique has to be compared to the classical approaches like the well known biomarker ethoxyresorufin-O-deethylase (EROD) to test their suitability for monitoring programmes. The goal of the present study is to compare EROD activity and CYP1A1 mRNA expression in the important monitoring fish species dab (Limanda limanda) and to answer the question of whether these parameters reflect the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) contamination of the fish. Further on, glyceraldehyd-3-phosphate dehydrogenase (GAPDH) was investigated as a potential housekeeping gene. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Female dab were caught in the summer of 2004 in the North Sea and in the Baltic. EROD activity was determined in liver samples by a kinetic fluorimetric assay according to a standard protocol. The gene expression of CYP1A (cytochrome P450 1A) and GAPDH were determined by means of RT-PCR. Results were compared to gonado somatic index and to the concentration of PAH metabolite 1OHPyr (1-hydroxypyrene) analysed in the bile fluids of the fish, respectively. RESULTS: Dab from all stations showed a considerable individual variation in the levels of both CYP1A mRNA and EROD. Highest mean values for CYP1A mRNA and EROD were detected in the northern part of the sampling area. In contrast, the PAH metabolite 1OHPyr was found at the highest concentration in fish caught near the German coast. CYP1A mRNA and EROD showed only a minor but significant correlation (r = 0.32, p < 0.05, n = 123). 1OHPyr in bile correlated significantly (p < 0.05) with the amount of GAPDH mRNA content in the liver. DISCUSSION: The significant but low correlation of CYP1A mRNA and EROD activity on an individual basis illustrates that these two parameters are apparently not closely linked. However, maximum EROD values correspond with maximum CYP1A mRNA concentrations when station means are regarded. Because EROD and CYP1A mRNA in dab follow different physiological principles, their application will lead to related but not identical monitoring results. This should be taken into account when future marine monitoring programmes are designed. The results also indicate that PAH are not the crucial factor for CYP1A and EROD levels in dab from the off-shore areas in the North Sea. This is remarkable because the PAH metabolism is known to be CYP1A-dependent and the widely used biomarker EROD has been recommended for monitoring PAH-related effects in fish from the North Sea. Due to a correlation between GAPDH and 1OHPyr, GAPDH was not suitable as housekeeping gene for dab. CONCLUSIONS: Neither the results from EROD nor from CYP1A1 mRNA measurements in dab reflected their exposure to PAH as measured by the PAH metabolite 1OHPyr. Thus, the question arises of whether EROD or CYP1A mRNA is a suitable biomarker at all to indicate PAH exposure in dab from the open North Sea. RECOMMENDATIONS AND PERSPECTIVES: For future biological effect monitoring, it is advisable to measure more and predominately independent parameters by RT-PCR and to incorporate more components of the detoxification system.     

Effects of a selenium-enriched diet on antioxidant response in adult crayfish (Procambarus clarkii)

Many diets employed in aquaculture are enriched with selenium to improve the diet quality and its conservation. The aim of the study was to investigate the effects of a diet enriched in selenium (1.21 mg kg(-1)) on the antioxidant response of Procambarus clarkii (Girard, 1852). Crayfish fed a diet with lower selenium content (0.30 mg kg(-1)) were the control. Selenium accumulation, enzymatic activities, and total glutathione were evaluated in hepatopancreas of adults of both sexes fed with both diets for 50 days at two experimental times (T(30), T(50) days). Treated females exhibited the highest selenium bioaccumulation during both experimental times, while treated males displayed the highest selenium concentration after 30 days, compared to control crayfish. A sex-related difference was found for the response of the analyzed enzymes in the selenium diet-treated specimens. In fact, superoxide dismutase, glutathione peroxidase and glyoxalase I activities in males were more sensitive compared with females, showing depleted activities in both experimental times. Catalase activity was induced in females (T(50)), while glutathione S-transferase activity was the highest in treated females and the lowest in treated males, compared with own controls. Only glutathione reductase activity and glutathione content showed the same trend in both sexes, which were both lowered in treated specimens, when compared with control crayfish. This result might be due to the effect of selenium toxicity on this freshwater species. Males and females of P. clarkii showed a different susceptibility to the prooxidant effects in a Se-enriched diet.