Discrete modelling of supply response under uncertainty: The case of the fishery

In the absence of complete control in a regulated industry, effective management requires prediction of firms' behavioral responses to public policy. This paper develops a discrete choice model of supply response under uncertainty and applies it to fishery choice problems of New England fishing firms. While fishermen demonstrate a bias towards remaining within the same fishery, sufficient incentives, in terms of changes in expected returns and risk, are shown to elicit response. Due to extreme uncertainty concerning population dynamics of fish stocks, a satisficing approach to management, facilitated by this type of modelling, may be more appropriate than bioeconomic optimization.     

Ecological factors limiting the distribution of Gilia tricolor in a California grassland mosaic

Recent evolutionary models of range limits emphasize the importance of ecological and demographic factors operating at species' margins. This study aims to establish the ecological context driving population boundaries in Gilia tricolor, a native California annual restricted to distinct habitat patches in the coastal range of California. A transplant experiment in one hillside G. tricolor population examined the roles of competition and soil chemistry as well as litter and biomass accumulation in setting local population boundaries. Results indicate that boundaries are maintained primarily by inhibition of seedling emergence by vegetation and litter, and that upslope and downslope population boundaries are heterogeneous in litter biomass and transplant performance. Consistent emergence inhibition in undisturbed, peripheral sites maintains limits to the distribution of G. tricolor in this population. Fine-scaled ecological heterogeneity and heterogeneous boundary conditions likely play important roles in limiting adaptation and subsequent range expansion at population boundaries in G. tricolor.     

Brominated flame retardant concentrations and trends in abiotic media

BFR burdens in abiotic media have been less studied than in biota, despite their essential value as an aide to identifying sources, temporal and geographic trends and exposure routes. Many polymer products consist of several percent by weight of BFRs. Global trade in these can result in rapid and wholesale BFR movement. Loss from in-use products of nonreactive BFRs may be important, particularly in respect to indoor exposure. In the case of BDE-209, discharges from publicly owned treatment works may be substantial. BFR burdens in air, water and sewage sludge respond rapidly to changes in environmental BFR inputs. PBDEs have been the most widely studied. In many locales PBDE burdens in these media now surpass those of PCBs. Air and water near sources and urban areas are typically enriched relative to rural locales. The more volatile PBDEs dominate in the vapor phase, while BDE-209 typically predominates on particulates. Evidence exists for long-range transport of the more volatile PBDEs. A greater diversity of BFRs (mostly PBDEs, HBCD and TBBP-A) has been detected in sewage sludges. Land application of these sludges on agricultural fields is one conduit for soil contamination. In general, environmental concentrations of BDE-209 appear to be increasing, while penta-BDE burdens in Europe may have peaked. Sediments function as longer-term integrators of environmental burdens. Concentrations of common BFRs therein may be substantial near point sources. Evidence for debromination in the environment has been limited to date. However, some laboratory and field observations suggest it is possible to a limited extent.     

I-Risk: development of an integrated technical and management risk methodology for chemical installations

This paper presents an integrated quantitative risk assessment method for hazardous installations, taking into account management as well as technical design and producing risk level measures. The key components of the I-Risk methodology are the technical model, the management model and their interface. The technical model consists of developing a master logic diagram (MLD) delineating the major immediate causes of loss of containment (LOC) and associated quantitative models for assessing their frequency. The management model consists of the tasks, which must be carried out systematically in the primary business functions (such as operations, emergency operations, maintenance and modifications). A management audit quantifies the quality of these management tasks. The management–technical interface modifies certain parameters of the technical model on the basis of the quality of the safety management system of the specific installation. The methodology is exemplified through its application to the risk assessment of an ammonia storage facility. A detailed technical model simulating the response of the system to various initiating events is developed along with a detailed management model simulating the influence of the plant-specific management and organisational practices. The overall effect is quantified through the frequency of release of ammonia as a result of a loss of containment in a storage tank and in a pipeline.     

Urbanization increases grassland carbon pools: effects of landscaping in Colorado's front range.

During the past few decades, urban and suburban developments have grown at unprecedented rates and extents with unknown consequences for ecosystem function. Carbon pools of soil and vegetation on landscaped properties were examined in the Front Range of Colorado, USA, in order to characterize vegetation and soils found in urban green spaces; analyze their aboveground biomass, vegetative C storage, and soil C storage; and compare these suburban ecosystem properties to their counterparts in native grassland and cultivated fields. Anthropogenic activities leave clear signatures on all three C compartments measured. Management level dominates the response of grass production, biomass, and N tissue concentration. This, in turn, influences the amount of C and N both stored in and harvested from sites. The site age dominates the amount of woody biomass as well as soil C and N. Soil texture only secondarily affects total soil carbon and total bulk density. Established urban green spaces harbor larger C pools, more than double in some cases, than native grasslands or agricultural fields on a per-area basis. Lawn grass produces more biomass and stores more C than local prairie or agricultural fields. Introduced woody vegetation comprises a substantial C pool in urban green spaces and represents a new ecosystem feature. After an initial decrease with site development, soil organic carbon (SOC) pools surpass those in grasslands within two decades. In addition to the marked increase of C pools through time, a shift in storage from belowground to aboveground occurs. Whereas grasslands store approximately 90% of C belowground, urban green spaces store a decreasing proportion of the total C belowground in soils through time, reaching approximately 70% 30-40 years after construction. Despite the substantial increase in C pools in this urban area, it is important to recognize that this shift is distinct from C sequestration since it does not account for a total C budget, including increased anthropogenic C emissions from these sites.     

Effects of Land-Use and Tsetse Fly Control on Bird Species Richness in Southwestern Ethiopia

Successful control of tsetse (Glossina spp.)-transmitted trypanosomiasis in the Ghibe Valley, Ethiopia, appears to have accelerated conversion of wooded grassland into cropland. Land conversion, in turn, may have fragmented wildlife habitat. Our objective was to assess the influence of the expansion of agricultural land-use, brought about by tsetse control, on ecological properties by using bird species richness and composition as indicators of environmental impacts. We sampled bird species richness and composition (using Timed-Species counts) and habitat structure (using field sampling and remote sensing) in four land cover/land-use types in areas subjected to tsetse fly control and adjacent areas without control. At the height of the growing season bird species numbers and vegetative complexity were greater in the small-holder, oxen-plowed fields and riparian woodlands than in wooded grasslands or in large-holder, tractor-plowed fields. Species composition was highly dissimilar (40–70% dissimilarity) comparing among land-use types, with many species found only in a single type. This implies that trypanosomiasis control that results in land conversion from wooded grasslands to small-holder farming in this region may have no adverse impacts on bird species numbers but will alter composition. These results also suggest that moderate land-use by humans (e.g., small-holder field mosaics) increases habitat heterogeneity and bird species richness relative to high levels of use (e.g., tractor-plowed fields). Tsetse control may be indirectly maintaining species richness in the valley by encouraging the differential spread of these small-scale, heterogeneous farms in place of large-scale, homogeneous farms. Nevertheless, if the extent of small-holder farms significantly exceeds that of present levels, negative impacts on bird species richness and large shifts in species composition may occur.     

Developmental change in aggregation,defense and escape behavior of buckmoth caterpillars,Hemileuca lucina (Saturniidae)

Summary Changes in response to attack and the tendency to aggregate were examined in the six larval instars of the buckmoth, Hemileuca lucina (Saturniidae). In response to simulation of attack by a parasitoid and of biting by a predator, early instars (I, II, and III) exhibited defensive behavior much more often than escape behaviors, whereas late instar larvae (IV, V, and VI) usually resorted to escape rather than defend themselves. The situations in which attacked larvae were most likely to stimulate other group members to respond were: second and third instar larvae thrashing in response to simulation of a parasitoid or headrearing in response to simulation of a biting predator; and fourth, fifth and sixth instar larvae dropping in response to either stimulus. An index of reaggregation indicated that first instar larvae had difficulty reaggregating; second, third and fourth instar larvae reaggregated quickly; and fifth and sixth larvae dispersed. As larvae developed, the change from predominantly defense to escape behaviors paralleled the decline in tendency to aggregate.